Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather is expected through the weekend, with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The Flash Flood Watch for the higher elevations has been cancelled as
thunderstorms have all but diminished over that region. Lack of
instability will preclude further development over the mountains.

Focus for convection is now in the Allegheny County area with an axis
of showers/storms extending northward. Convection has been developing
off of the several outflow boundaries. While areal coverage will be
limited, deep warm cloud layers and slow movement will lead to rather
efficient rain rates. In fact, a few area gauges and MRMS estimated
in excess of 2" in 1 hour w/ a storm that just moved over portions of
Allegheny County. This will lead to an isolated flash flood threat
for any location that manages to remain under a storm for any length
of time.

Coverage will decrease by late evening with the loss of heating, with
hopefully not too much disruption to area fireworks displays. Cannot
rule out a stray shower through most of the night though given the
ample moisture in place. Localized fog is possible, although
lingering clouds may keep this from becoming too widespread/dense.
Above-normal temperatures will linger along with muggy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Another day with mostly afternoon/evening convection is figured for
Friday as the same warm and humid air mass remains in place. The
remnant MCV may drift northward into our southwestern counties during
the day, aiding development and providing support for lift. Again,
flash flooding is more of a concern than severe weather with moist
soundings and little shear.

On Saturday, the front that has been lingering to our north will
shift southward across our region, thanks to Quebec low pressure and
a surface high building into the Great Lakes. Areawide likely PoPs
remain appropriate given the front and ample moisture. Temperatures
will remain near or a bit above normal this period, along with
continued high dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and a few storms will linger into Sunday as the front
completes its passage. The ridges hang on to some low PoPs on Monday
with light southeast flow and lingering moisture, while the remainder
of the region dries out under high pressure. Tuesday should be dry
for everyone, and possibly Wednesday as well, with the high
lingering. Rain chances return for Wednesday night/Thursday with a
possible front. Temperatures will not stray too far from seasonable
values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is expected for the first part of tonight outside of any isolated
eve tstms. These should diminish as instability wanes. Patchy MVFR
fog is expected again late tonight, before MVFR CU develops Fri
morning. Cig heights should lift to VFR with mixing, though sct tstms
are expected again esp in the aftn as convective thresholds are met,
and shortwave support increases.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are likely through the weekend with a moist
atmosphere and daily sct tstms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
534 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-052145-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
534 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Localized flash flooding is possible through Saturday with
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E KREGAR              40.13N  79.25W
07/04/2019                   WESTMORELAND       PA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LANDSLIDE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902540

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE PLEASANT GROVE    40.16N  79.27W
07/04/2019                   WESTMORELAND       PA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WHITE OAK RUN IS OUT OF THE BANK AND AFFECTING WEAVER
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902541

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FRIENDSVILLE            39.66N  79.41W
07/04/2019                   GARRETT            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD CLOSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902542

07

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