Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather is expected through the weekend, with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Generally made minor updates to grids, upping PoPs along the ridges
given radar trends. With heavy rain ingredients in place and storms
becoming tied to the terrain in areas with relatively lower flash
flood guidance, elected to post a Flash Flood Watch for much of the
southeastern terrain areas. Will not rule out further expansion
depending on how convective pattern develops.

Previous discussion...

Typical summertime weather will continue today under high pressure
as diurnally-driven, scattered showers/storms return during the
afternoon and evening hours. Scattered evening thunderstorms should
quickly diminish after dark with loss of daytime heating.

With very moist profiles and little wind shear, the overall threat
for severe weather will be low this afternoon. The primary concern
will be heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potential with
thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be several degrees above seasonal average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern continues on Friday with warm/humid air remaining in
place over the area. Convection is expected to linger a little longer
into the overnight with support from an approaching shortwave. The
potential for localized flash flooding will once again be a threat,
with other forms of severe weather less likely. Temperatures will
remain near to just above climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front that has been sitting to our north will shift southwards
on Saturday with help from low pressure crossing Quebec. Have
included likely PoPs on Saturday ahead of the front. Rain chances
will linger through Sunday as the front passes.

Dry weather finally returns for most of the region on Monday, though
shower/thunderstorm chances will linger across the ridges. Tuesday
will remain dry areawide under high pressure, but rain chances creep
back into the forecast on Wednesday as the high shifts eastwards and
moist, southerly return flow begins. Temperatures will be near to
just above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
With minimal change in the pattern TAFs remain largely a persistence
forecast with scattered shower/storm this afternoon/evening followed
by patchy fog development. Did have enough confidence to go with
tempo mention of thunderstorms in many locations as opposed to the
PROB30s that were included with the 12Z TAFs.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are likely through the weekend with abundant
boundary layer moisture and daily convection chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ073>076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ510>514.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
400 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-050800-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
400 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Localized flash flooding is possible in thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Localized flash flooding is possible through Saturday with
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE ASHER GLADE        39.69N  79.42W
07/04/2019                   GARRETT            MD   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGH WATER ON BUFFALO RUN RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902539

JD