Severe Thunderstorm Warning 574, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.AVIATION...
15/06Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected through most of the forecast
period, although IFR/MVFR conditions appear possible across
northern Oklahoma terminals first 3 to 6 hours of forecast with
TSRA skirting OK/KS border. Some MVFR cigs possible farther south
into central portions of Oklahoma toward 10-12Z then mix to VFR
before noon. LLWS will be included through 12Z with strong low
level jet over the region. Numerous TSRA possible toward end of
forecast period and especially beyond tomorrow night into Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1004 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/

UPDATE...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

DISCUSSION...
There remains some uncertainty on the southern extent of the MCS
currently across Kansas. Zonal flow aloft will tend to keep most
of the convection to the north. Nevertheless, with a
strengthening low-level jet (~50 knots), some southern growth into
Oklahoma is possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard.

In addition, a lone thunderstorm across the Texas panhandle may
affect far western north Texas before dissipating.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/

AVIATION...
15/00Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail through most of
the forecast period. TSRA expected to mainly affect northern
Oklahoma terminals, generally in the 02Z-08Z time frame with main
impact being damaging wind gusts. Could see more isolated TSRA
farther south toward KCSM and KOKC. Farther south, elevated warm
layer has greater chance of suppressing any TSRA this forecast
period. Frontal boundary expected to switch winds to northwest at
KWWR with s/sw winds prevailing elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Convection now developing in eastern Colorado is the beginning of
what should become scattered thunderstorms across the southern
High Plains region by this evening. Strong instability suggests
that any storms that form could be quite severe, with very large
hail and very strong winds. It is expected that these storms will
coalesce into one or more storm clusters, and move east tonight.
In this phase, strong winds will be the main threat. In our
forecast area, it is most probable that a storm cluster will
follow the Oklahoma/Kansas border area tonight.

Storms should diminish in the morning Saturday, leaving a partly
cloudy day with relatively warm temperatures. Storms are expected
to form again tomorrow evening, and severe storms will be
possible again, similar to today, but farther east than today.

As an upper-level wave passes over Oklahoma on Sunday and Sunday
night, even more widespread strong/severe thunderstorms are
expected.

In the wake of the departing upper wave, Monday should be
relatively dry (meaning lower rain chances, not lower humidity).
The upper-level pattern doesn't change much next week, and
difficult-to-time minor waves in the upper flow will cause
occasional similarly-difficult-to-time chances of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  90  70  86 /  10  10  20  40
Hobart OK         72  95  68  89 /  10   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  75  96  73  92 /   0   0  20  30
Gage OK           66  90  63  84 /  20  10  30  30
Ponca City OK     69  89  68  84 /  40  10  50  50
Durant OK         72  90  73  88 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
830 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-160130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
830 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms over far northwest
Oklahoma, and a Slight Risk for the rest of northern Oklahoma. A
Marginal Risk extends to the south of the Slight Risk area.

A complex of thunderstorms is expected to enter northwest
Oklahoma late this evening. Thunderstorms may continue to move
across northern Oklahoma through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning.

Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls
will be primary hazards with any severe storms. Locally heavy rain
that could reduce visibility and produce minor flooding will also
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe storms will be possible again Saturday afternoon and night
with a Slight Risk generally west through north of I-44. A
Marginal Risk covers most of the rest of the area. Very large hail
up to the size of baseballs and damaging winds will be the main
threats.

On Sunday, a Slight Risk covers most of the area. What happens
Sunday could be affected by the storms that occur Saturday night
so there is some uncertainty. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main concerns with severe storms Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue off and on next week, with
strong to severe storms remaining possible.

Locally heavy rain and flooding will also be a concern this
weekend into next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

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