Flash Flood Warning 114, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
419 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed as far south as the OKC
metro early this morning behind two outflow boundaries, thanks to
a fairly stout LLJ over central OK. A few strong storms are also
persisting over northern OK. Most of this activity should wane
near and just after sunrise. A few showers and thunderstorms can't
be completely ruled out along the outflow boundaries by late this
afternoon so have included a corridor of SChc over central OK for
this reason.

Late this afternoon through this evening, moist convection is
expected to develop near the intersection of a stationary boundary
and dryline across portions of the southern TX panhandle, and then
move into SW OK and western north TX. Steep mid level lapse rates
and sufficient deep layer shear will support another threat of
large hail and then damaging winds through the overnight hours
likely near and just north of the Red River. A mid level shortwave
trough will also result in increasing coverage through the
overnight hours from central to northern OK. By early Sunday
morning, most of the region should have ongoing moist convection
present. Flooding may become a concern with slower storm motions
anticipated, specifically over north central OK.

The flood threat will continue into Sunday evening and early
Monday morning, especially along and south of I-40 with a stationary
boundary draped over the region, another LLJ developing, and the
slow progression of a mid to upper trough axis. A flood watch may
eventually be needed. This flood threat will include the OKC
metro. Likely PoPs will linger across SE OK through Monday. The
wet pattern will continue through the week as several additional
shortwave troughs impact the central and southern plains. After
Monday morning, another round of significant rainfall is expected
late Tue into Wed. Stronger mid to upper flow may also support
severe weather in addition to flooding rainfall. A brief break in
rain chances will arrive Thu, but then return next weekend with SW
flow aloft impacting the Southern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  70  86  66 /  30  40  50  50
Hobart OK         94  68  89  66 /  20  60  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  91  69 /  10  60  30  60
Gage OK           88  63  83  61 /  10  50  30  40
Ponca City OK     88  68  85  65 /  20  70  50  40
Durant OK         90  73  87  69 /  10  50  50  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

14/03

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
327 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

OKZ007-008-012-013-020-150900-
Garfield OK-Payne OK-Kay OK-Grant OK-Noble OK-
327 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Garfield...north
central Payne...southern Kay...southeastern Grant and Noble Counties
Until 400 AM CDT...

AT 325 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
Billings, moving east at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3678 9675 3677 9682 3674 9683 3675 9689
      3668 9693 3670 9704 3668 9706 3659 9706
      3660 9691 3658 9689 3651 9703 3633 9703
      3633 9692 3625 9692 3624 9683 3610 9689
      3630 9759 3679 9769 3681 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 276DEG 49KT 3658 9737

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
346 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

OKZ006-007-150915-
Alfalfa OK-Grant OK-
346 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR east central Alfalfa and western
Grant Counties Until 415 AM CDT...

AT 344 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Great Salt
Plains Lake, moving east at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Wakita, Jefferson and Great Salt Plains Lake.

LAT...LON 3669 9828 3684 9830 3693 9776 3668 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 264DEG 39KT 3678 9821

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
415 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

OKZ007-008-150945-
Kay OK-Grant OK-
415 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Kay and southeastern Grant
Counties Until 445 AM CDT...

AT 413 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Blackwell, moving east at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Ponca City, Blackwell, Tonkawa, Newkirk, Lamont, Kaw City, Deer
Creek, Kildare, Kaw Lake, Hardy, Nardin and Peckham.

LAT...LON 3678 9675 3678 9679 3677 9679 3677 9682
      3674 9683 3675 9687 3675 9689 3670 9692
      3669 9700 3670 9704 3668 9707 3660 9766
      3677 9771 3700 9682 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 254DEG 49KT 3679 9719

MAD

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