Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
319 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A convective system associated with a strong upper-level wave and
its related surface cyclone is working its way slowly to the east
across our forecast area early this morning. It currently covers
about the western 2/3 of our area, and should begin to increase
its eastward speed over the next several hours, finally exiting
our area sometime this morning or early this afternoon. A few
showers and thunderstorms will also be possible through the
afternoon in northwest Oklahoma, closer to the wave aloft. Any of
these storms could be severe, as vertical shear remains
impressive.

Heavy rainfall across the region has left the ground extremely
wet, and flooding is already a problem in many areas. Rain chances
continue through nearly all the forecast area this morning. As a
result, the existing Flood Watch will be retained for this
forecast issuance.

Starting tonight, and lasting through Wednesday morning, we get
a short (18 hour) break from thunderstorm chances. Storms should
start to increase again Wednesday afternoon across our central
and southeast counties, then shift northwest as warm and moist air
returns from the southeast. By the end of the day, a warm front
should be near, or north of, the Kansas border, setting the stage
for Thursday.

Another wave aloft, not quite as strong as today's, will arrive in
the area Thursday. With the warm, humid air established across our
forecast area, severe storms will be a significant possibility
again, mainly over northwest Oklahoma.

Despite the departure of that wave, the lingering moisture and
occasional weak disturbances aloft will help maintain at least
slight chances for thunderstorms into early next week.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  57  83  69 /  30   0  20  40
Hobart OK         76  54  84  68 /  10   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  78  58  87  71 /  10   0  30  30
Gage OK           71  47  82  64 /  40   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     75  54  82  70 /  70   0  20  40
Durant OK         79  60  86  71 /  80   0  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

50/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
353 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
353 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Flooding and heavy rainfall...
Heavy rainfall is expected over the eastern half of Oklahoma this
morning. This will contribute further to already saturated ground
and high waters in streams and rivers. The rain is expected to
diminish or end in most areas by afternoon.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be likely across the eastern half of Oklahoma
this morning. With strong vertical wind shear in place, a few
storms may be severe, with damaging winds as the primary threat.
Additional storms are possible in northwest Oklahoma through this
afternoon, where wind and hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is at least a slight chance for thunderstorms every day
through Monday. Severe storms may occur in far western Oklahoma
on Wednesday, but a much greater risk for severe storms will be on
Thursday. Most of the region should remain capped, but northwest
storms may form in the Texas Panhandle and move into northwest
Oklahoma during the afternoon, with the attendant risks of large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes.

.Heavy rainfall and flooding...
Organized heavy rainfall is not expected after Tuesday morning,
but with extremely saturated soils across the region, it will not
take much to cause flooding. In addition, many streams and rivers
throughout Oklahoma will be near or above flood stage at least
through Wednesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
231 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

OKZ012-013-019-020-026-210800-
Garfield OK-Payne OK-Logan OK-Lincoln OK-Noble OK-
231 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Garfield...
southwestern Payne...Logan...northwestern Lincoln and southwestern
Noble Counties Until 300 AM CDT...

AT 229 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Crescent,
moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3639 9740 3623 9719 3587 9706 3573 9759
      3598 9768 3615 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 229DEG 35KT 3596 9755

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE WARWICK           35.69N 96.97W
05/21/2019                   LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER AND DEBRIS ON ROADWAY AT HIGHWAY 66. THE HIGHWAY
            WAS CLOSED BY ODOT.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     TSTM WND GST     MARLOW                  34.64N 97.96W
05/21/2019  E65 MPH          STEPHENS           OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PHONE CALL

&&

ZWINK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
309 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

OKZ027>029-039-040-210845-
Grady OK-Stephens OK-Garvin OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
309 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Grady...northeastern
Stephens...northwestern Garvin...central Cleveland and McClain
Counties Until 345 AM CDT...

AT 308 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Tabler to 6 miles east of Bray, moving northeast at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3456 9774 3509 9790 3538 9754 3538 9736
      3483 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 231DEG 43KT 3506 9782 3467 9770

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W KENDRICK            35.80N 96.88W
05/21/2019                   LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 18 CLOSED AT 840 ROAD. BRIDGE COMPLETELY
            UNDERWATER.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW NORMAN             35.24N 97.47W
05/21/2019  M62.00 MPH       CLEVELAND          OK   AWOS

&&

BRB