Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
329 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Very strong instability and a couple of surface boundaries have
led to the development of numerous strong/severe thunderstorms
across western north Texas...into south-central Oklahoma. This
area of storms will most likely weaken over the next several
hours, as additional storms form on their periphery. The severe
weather threat will diminish slowly this evening as the near-
surface inversion sets in. As a cold front moves into Oklahoma
tonight, it will bring another relatively high chance for
thunderstorms to the northwest 2/3 or so of Oklahoma. As it
continues south on Thursday, it will reduce the chances for
showers/thunderstorms well behind it. The risk of severe storms
appears to be restricted to the near-Red River parts of our
forecast area tomorrow.

Existing wet ground conditions, plus the expectation of heavy rain
and some training with this evening's storms, warrants maintaining
the Flood Watch that we issued earlier today.

Somewhat cooler and drier air will continue to advance slowly
into Oklahoma/north Texas on Friday and Saturday. An upper/mid-
level wave passing through the southeast part of our forecast area
on Friday will result in higher rain chances on Friday, but with
less instability, the severe weather risk will be relatively low.

The weekend should be mild, with only low chances for rain, but
returning moisture will raise rain chances again early next week.
Depending on what actually happens, there may be another risk of
severe weather around Wednesday. Models differ too much by that
time to make any definitive forecasts at this point, however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  67  58  70 /  70  30  40  60
Hobart OK         56  64  56  70 /  70  20  50  70
Wichita Falls TX  63  73  61  73 /  50  40  50  60
Gage OK           46  61  49  69 /  60  10  50  60
Ponca City OK     55  66  56  70 /  60  30  40  50
Durant OK         64  77  62  73 /  70  50  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ023>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

12/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
342 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
342 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today across south
central Oklahoma and an adjacent part of northern Texas. There is a
slight risk for the rest of southern Oklahoma and part of east
central Oklahoma. A marginal risk exists over the rest of Oklahoma
except for a small part of north central.

Location...
The enhanced risk includes areas southeast of Seymour, Wichita
Falls, and Duncan. The slight risk includes areas southeast of
Altus, Chickasha, Norman, and Prague.

Timing...
Storms are expected to until midnight.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of baseballs.
Damaging winds up to 70 mph.
A few tornadoes.
Excessive rainfall with flash flooding.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rainfall is expected to cause flooding across south central
and southeastern Oklahoma. Flooding is most likely in areas that
have saturated ground from previous rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected across southern Oklahoma and northern
Texas Thursday, and again Friday through the weekend.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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