Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
721 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will persist this evening along a slowly-moving cold
front from southwest into northeast Oklahoma. It will remain south
of Oklahoma City and Lawton. IFR conditions north of the front are
expected much of the night with some light fog. MVFR conditions
will exist at times south of the front and away from the
thunderstorms. Ceilings will lift or clear by midday Wednesday in
most areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather going on this afternoon, so will keep this brief.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should continue into early
evening. Expectation is for convection to consolidate along the
front the evening and then move eastward from there. Severe hail,
winds, and a tornado or two are all threats.

With ample moisture in place, convection may continue overnight
over southeast Oklahoma as the shortwave makes its way out. Will
keep the flood watch going with some slight adjustment (bringing
it south to the border).

General trend is for the models to retreat the front Wednesday
afternoon into northern Oklahoma (with the exception of the NAM).
Models suggest some convection may form in southeast Oklahoma as a
vorticity maximum passes over that area of abundant moisture
tomorrow evening. At the same time a cold front will surge south
from Kansas bringing precipitation chances with it overnight into
Thursday morning.

Synoptic pattern remains active into next week, though details
are a bit fuzzy.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  79  59  69 /  60  30  40  30
Hobart OK         57  81  57  66 /  30  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  64  82  62  75 /  50  40  20  30
Gage OK           51  79  49  65 /  20  10  30  10
Ponca City OK     57  75  58  68 /  50  20  60  30
Durant OK         66  79  63  77 /  80  50  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ019-020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

10/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
859 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020200-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
859 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms tonight across
the southeast Oklahoma.

Location...
The enhanced risk area is generally along and east of a line from
Shawnee to Duncan to Waurika.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from now through 3
AM.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of quarters.
Damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph.
Excessive rainfall with flooding possible.
Low tornado risk.

Discussion...
Numerous storms are expected to continue across south central and
southeast Oklahoma tonight with the primary threat of a flooding.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the area should prepare for potential severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday mainly
across the eastern half of Oklahoma. A marginal risk covers the
western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. The most likely
time for severe weather will be during the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Thursday through Monday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
849 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

TXZ089-090-010215-
Clay TX-Archer TX-
849 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Clay and
southeastern Archer Counties Until 915 PM CDT...

AT 846 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Archer City,
moving northeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9859 3352 9872 3385 9837 3359 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 239DEG 20KT 3358 9856

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

TXZ089-090-010245-
Clay TX-Archer TX-
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Clay and east central
Archer Counties Until 945 PM CDT...

AT 919 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Lake Arrowhead, moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 9831 3363 9847 3401 9816 3388 9798
      3376 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 219DEG 35KT 3363 9834

BRB

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