Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Small scale MCV expected to continue moving southwestward over the
next few days. However, influences will continue to be felt from
late afternoon into evening hrs across mid state region. No
particular model has a good handle on expected areal coverage thru
this evening, thus went with a blend of models thru this evening,
leaving out the more aggressive NAM/NAM Nest solutions when it
comes to keeping MCV circulation well defined. Just a good amount
of uncertainty here with no real sfc/upper level features of note
other than MCV circulation across our southwest. Best convective
potential thru late afternoon hrs looks to be generally across
locations south of I-40 and west of I-65, with some model
solutions showing a band of shwrs/tstms moving nwd into the
Nashville Metro Area as the evening hrs approach. Thus broke out a
late this afternoon zone grouping which will more than likely
need to be updated as the remainder of the afternoon hrs progress.
A few strong tstms possible with brief heavy rainfall as tstms
will generally be not moving that fast. Latest updated SPC Day
One Convective Outlook as moved marginal risk now well southwest
of mid state region into srn MS. However, that does not mean that
a few strong tstms if not a couple of iso svr tstms or two can
still not happen across the mid state region thru this evening.

As for the rest of the forecast thru Independence Day, if one was
looking for a typical summertime pattern across the mid state
region, one will certainly be in store for the mid state region
from after convection ends this evening thru Independence Day.
Sfc ridging influences stationed off to our east. Upper level
ridging influences prevailing, but enough moisture beneath it
to support mainly iso to sct shwrs/tstms during the afternoon
and evening hrs. Went with a blended model solution here.
If one leans toward the latest GFS solution, that means a little
better chance of shwrs/tstms as Independence Day approaches
as it has upper level ridging influences weakening with a more
swly flow pattern aloft developing versus the latest ECMWF
solution that keeps upper level riding in place. To better
describe the overall wx pattern thru Independence Day, with with
coverage terms instead of probability terms. Otherwise, generally
ptcldy skies are expected thru Independence Day. Overnight lows
and afternoon high temps will continue to be a little above
seasonal normal values thru forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Late this afternoon, an upper trough axis extends southward through
western TN. This feature is actually expected to shift southwestward
through the taf period. Thus, it looks as though the degree of
convective activity will decrease some for Friday afternoon compared
to this afternoon.

Otherwise, initially, convection to spread northward and effect
the BNA and CKV taf areas. Will include continuous shower
activity through 04z with a tempo to indicate the stronger tstms.
Further east across CSV, will stick to vcnty for now as they are
further from the aformentioned trough axis.

As for fog, tovers are generally positive. Maybe some light fog
near CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........21