Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Small scale MCV expected to continue moving southwestward over the
next few days. However, influences will continue to be felt from
late afternoon into evening hrs across mid state region. No
particular model has a good handle on expected areal coverage thru
this evening, thus went with a blend of models thru this evening,
leaving out the more aggressive NAM/NAM Nest solutions when it
comes to keeping MCV circulation well defined. Just a good amount
of uncertainty here with no real sfc/upper level features of note
other than MCV circulation across our southwest. Best convective
potential thru late afternoon hrs looks to be generally across
locations south of I-40 and west of I-65, with some model
solutions showing a band of shwrs/tstms moving nwd into the
Nashville Metro Area as the evening hrs approach. Thus broke out a
late this afternoon zone grouping which will more than likely
need to be updated as the remainder of the afternoon hrs progress.
A few strong tstms possible with brief heavy rainfall as tstms
will generally be not moving that fast. Latest updated SPC Day
One Convective Outlook as moved marginal risk now well southwest
of mid state region into srn MS. However, that does not mean that
a few strong tstms if not a couple of iso svr tstms or two can
still not happen across the mid state region thru this evening.

As for the rest of the forecast thru Independence Day, if one was
looking for a typical summertime pattern across the mid state
region, one will certainly be in store for the mid state region
from after convection ends this evening thru Independence Day.
Sfc ridging influences stationed off to our east. Upper level
ridging influences prevailing, but enough moisture beneath it
to support mainly iso to sct shwrs/tstms during the afternoon
and evening hrs. Went with a blended model solution here.
If one leans toward the latest GFS solution, that means a little
better chance of shwrs/tstms as Independence Day approaches
as it has upper level ridging influences weakening with a more
swly flow pattern aloft developing versus the latest ECMWF
solution that keeps upper level riding in place. To better
describe the overall wx pattern thru Independence Day, with with
coverage terms instead of probability terms. Otherwise, generally
ptcldy skies are expected thru Independence Day. Overnight lows
and afternoon high temps will continue to be a little above
seasonal normal values thru forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Late this afternoon, an upper trough axis extends southward through
western TN. This feature is actually expected to shift southwestward
through the taf period. Thus, it looks as though the degree of
convective activity will decrease some for Friday afternoon compared
to this afternoon.

Otherwise, initially, convection to spread northward and effect
the BNA and CKV taf areas. Will include continuous shower
activity through 04z with a tempo to indicate the stronger tstms.
Further east across CSV, will stick to vcnty for now as they are
further from the aformentioned trough axis.

As for fog, tovers are generally positive. Maybe some light fog
near CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
856 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
856 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for locations
around and south of the I-40 Corridor and along and west of the
I-24 Corridor mainly this afternoon through the early evening
hours tonight. Primary concern with any strong to severe
thunderstorms that develop will be strong to damaging winds.
Brief, localized flooding is also possible with slow moving
thunderstorms. Pea to marble size hail may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected as of this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
528 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ028-062-272315-
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-
528 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Murfreesboro, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Cedars Of
Lebanon State Park and Lascassas.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 72 and 80.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 52 and 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8622 3581 8625 3582 8649 3607 8655
      3609 8655 3608 8654 3608 8653 3606 8653
      3607 8652 3610 8652
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 165DEG 9KT 3590 8638

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
554 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ008>010-029-031-272345-
Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-
554 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN SUMNER...NORTHWESTERN CLAY...MACON AND NORTHERN
TROUSDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Hartsville to 7 miles west of
Celina. Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Hartsville, Westmoreland, Red Boiling Springs, Portland,
Mitchellville, Bethpage, Moss, Bugtussle, Oak Grove and Boles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8562 3647 8548 3642 8591 3643 8598
      3642 8597 3637 8631 3662 8657 3664 8655
      3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 132DEG 16KT 3643 8628 3651 8563

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLD HICKORY             36.26N  86.65W
06/27/2019  E65 MPH          DAVIDSON           TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900413

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
616 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ007-026-027-280000-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
616 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHEASTERN CHEATHAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Ashland City to Joelton.
Movement was north at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Ashland City, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Joelton, Pleasant
View, Adams and Cedar Hill.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 18 and 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 8684 3630 8711 3645 8714 3646 8712
      3647 8713 3652 8711 3654 8712 3655 8712
      3655 8713 3656 8714 3657 8714 3661 8712
      3662 8713 3664 8711 3665 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 189DEG 33KT 3636 8711 3633 8687

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ079-280000-
Grundy TN-
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRUNDY COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gruetli-Laager, or 16 miles west of Dunlap, moving north at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gruetli-Laager, Tracy City, Monteagle, Altamont, Coalmont, Palmer,
Beersheba Springs and Fiery Gizzard State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8579 3524 8582 3548 8586 3552 8559
      3551 8558 3533 8555 3532 8556 3530 8564
      3530 8566 3529 8569 3529 8571 3524 8569
      3522 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 170DEG 19KT 3535 8567

13

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