Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The linear complex of storms now approaching the northwest corner
of the mid state. Southern half, from Stewart county
southwestward, has shown some weakening. However, capes and low
level forcing will still remain elevated so strengthening is still
possible. The north half of the line is looking much stronger and
has a history wind damage with downed trees and power lines across
western KY. Isolated large hail reports have also been received.

A severe tstm watch remains in effect until 1 am for the entire
mid state area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED /

Two large storm complexes over IL and MO continue to track this
way and are still expected to reach the area later this afternoon
and this evening. Both systems have temporarily weakened as they
leave an area of strong deep-layer shear, but at the same time
instability is quickly increasing upstream of these systems
especially over western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee where CAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg. Therefore expect an uptick in the
intensity of these storms as they eventually congeal into one
system, with a propagation turning them slightly more southerly
toward West and Middle Tennessee later this evening along the
instability gradient in place across the area.

The moderate to strong instability in place along with steep
midlevel lapse rates will support a very favorable environment for
damaging winds, evidenced by downdraft CAPE at a very high 1500
J/kg across the area. However, these storms will encounter much
weaker deep-layer shear over Tennessee which will act against the
severity of these storms and will make it increasingly likely
that a gust front will surge out ahead of the line and lead to a
steady weakening trend by the time they reach here. Will need to
keep a close eye on how quickly this cold pool dominance can
occur, because otherwise conditions are favorable for numerous
gusts to 50 mph and locally as high as 70-75 mph as long as this
line of storms remains healthy. Very frequent lightning will be
another concern with these storms particularly given the amount of
instability that exists above the freezing level. Could see some
pockets of heavy rain, although precipitable water values only
around 1.5" and the progressive nature of this system should keep
the flood threat limited.

Will then need to watch the potential for yet another storm
complex developing on the heels of this one later tonight, as a
strong low level jet interacts with a stalled boundary over MO/IL
and likely sparks off another area of storms over that area after
midnight. Should such a complex develop it would likely take a
similar track to today's system, eventually ending up in Kentucky
and Tennessee near or shortly after sunrise. The threat for severe
storms will be lower with this system unless it slows down enough
to arrive after 10 AM or so, in which case a destabilizing airmass
will make damaging winds a threat once again.

Pattern remains unsettled into Saturday night and Sunday, during
which time any subtle wave in the flow could cause storms to
develop, although a ridge building into the Mississippi Valley
should shunt the highest chances into the Cumberland Plateau and
points east from there. Then on Monday a trough to the west will
swing through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and bring another
chance for organized storms, some of which could be strong. Behind
this system the upper flow will flatten out, resulting in low
chances for mostly diurnal storms for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MCS on its way to the mid state at this hour. Should begin to feel
the impact near CKV within the next 2-3 hours. Most areas will get
20-30 kt winds with gusts between 30 and 40kts. Isolated to
scattered area will reach and perhaps surpass severe limits. The
showers and tstms will traverse the entire mid state with the
activity reaching the BNA area between 1z and 3z and then CSV
between 3z and 6z. Some decrease in low level forcing will occur
by the time the complex reaches the CSV area. However, Momentum,
couple with available convective fuel will allow the severe
potential and high winds to continue.

Another system could potentially roll through around sunrise. This
second system looks a bit iffy at this time however. Otherwise,
should be relatively quiet aft 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  91  74  92  73 /  70  50  30  30  40
Clarksville    71  90  73  90  71 /  70  50  30  30  50
Crossville     65  83  67  84  68 /  50  50  50  40  30
Columbia       72  91  71  91  72 /  60  40  30  30  30
Lawrenceburg   73  90  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  30  30
Waverly        73  91  72  91  71 /  70  40  30  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
642 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221145-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
642 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are possible this
afternoon through Saturday morning. Damaging winds will be the
primary concern, along with hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible Saturday
morning and into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds will remain
the primary concern, with hail and heavy rainfall possible.

Heat index values will approach 100 degrees on both Saturday and
Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through the
overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOVER                   36.48N  87.84W
06/21/2019                   STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900336

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
705 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             36.56N  87.35W
06/21/2019                   MONTGOMERY         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG WILMA-RUDOLPH BLVD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900337

21