Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
221 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

We're in a bit of a lull here waiting for more widespread convection
to begin. A couple of storms are on the Cumberland Plateau at
forecast time, but these should move off the Plateau in less than an
hour and our focus will then shift to our northwest counties. A few
storms have popped up in Montgomery and Roberston counties, but I
think the main development is still behind these storms, as the
front is back in the Paducah area.

It still looks like all of the necessary ingredients are in place
for damaging wind gusts with storms that develop this afternoon and
evening. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 5000 J/Kg are
blanketing areas west of I-65, downdraft CAPEs are around 1200 J/Kg,
mid-level lapse rates are good (~7.0 degrees/Km) and bulk shear
values of 25-30 kts are being seen, too. Not off the chart, but with
the instability values in place, it's not going to require a whole
lot of shear to help organize at least a couple of updrafts long
enough to warrant several warnings late this afternoon and evening.
PW values are also off the charts, obviously. This morning's OHX
sounding was showing just over 2.0 inches and latest LAPS sounding
have increased those numbers to 2.16 inches in the Metro area. Storm
motions are just high enough so I'm not overly concerned about
rainfall, but these storms will be efficient rainmakers, so some
localized flooding isn't out of the question in areas that typically
see poor drainage. You know who you are.

Most of the storm activity will push south of I-40 for the evening
hours and should be falling apart prior to the midnight hour and
once it ends, that's going to be it in the rain department for
several days. Temperatures will fall back towards normals for this
time of the year and drier air will help those 90-ish afternoon
temperatures feel more bearable. The dry air will also make a couple
of evening feel much cooler, too.

As we get into the last half of the workweek and into Saturday, the
upper level pattern should shift and become more southwesterly. This
will help temperatures rebound back into the mid-90s once again for
the weekend. Dew points will also be on the rise and Sunday night,
precipitation returns to the forecast. The first half of next week
could be wet, but at least we should be dry most of this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The first line of thunderstorms that came out of Kentucky this
morning have worked their way south of I-40 as of 17Z. Still
expect more thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon. VCTS
will be a safe bet all across Middle TN this afternoon and will
use that at all TAF sites starting at 18Z. Also tried to use the
higher resolution models to time the expected lines of
thunderstorms via TEMPO groups. For BNA and MQY expect this to be
between 22Z and 01Z. For CSV there could be two waves...one from
20Z to 22Z and then again from 00Z to 02Z. CKV was a bit harder as
it looks like the line of storms should develop east of here.
With that thinking will leave the VCTS for CKV. Conditions should
be VFR expect for in and around thunderstorms where MVFR and IFR
can be expected.

Once the thunderstorms die off later this evening...overnight fog
becomes an issue. IFR conditions will be possible area wide
starting around to after 08Z.

Winds will be southwest around 10kts this afternoon and evening.
Gustier in and around thunderstorms. Winds will become more
northerly tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  90  68  91  68 /  60   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    71  88  65  88  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
Crossville     69  83  63  84  61 /  80  10   0   0   0
Columbia       72  89  66  90  66 /  80   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   72  87  66  89  65 /  80   0   0   0   0
Waverly        72  89  67  89  67 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-
Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect west of the Cumberland Plateau
today. A dangerous combination of heat and humidity is expected
this afternoon with heat index values reaching 105 to 109 degrees.
Heat safety precautions are advised for any outdoor activities.

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop across southern Kentucky this afternoon, then spread
southeastward across all of Middle Tennessee from late afternoon
into the evening. Damaging winds are the main threat with these
storms, with heavy rainfall and localized flooding also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and evening.

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
411 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA VERGNE               36.00N  86.57W
08/13/2019                   RUTHERFORD         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            OUTDOOR GARAGE BUILDING PICKED UP AND TOSSED TO A
            NEIGHBORS YARD IN LA VERGNE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900494

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
436 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE LA VERGNE          36.03N  86.55W
08/13/2019                   RUTHERFORD         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FACEBOOK REPORT OF TREES DOWN IN CEDAR GLEN COMMUNITY
            OF LA VERGNE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900495

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
439 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             ARRINGTON               35.87N  86.71W
08/13/2019  M0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TWITTER REPORT OF 0.75 INCH HAIL AGAINST A RULER IN
            ARRINGTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900496

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
439 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

TNZ032-064-065-132230-
Putnam TN-De Kalb TN-White TN-
439 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DE KALB...WHITE AND
CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Baxter, or 10 miles northwest of Sparta, moving east
at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Sparta, Smithville, Algood, Baxter, Doyle, Hamptons
Crossroads, Bakers Crossroads and Burgess Falls State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 272 and 298.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3622 8557 3623 8556 3619 8530 3582 8544
      3582 8548 3581 8550 3581 8552 3579 8552
      3592 8589 3622 8566 3621 8563 3623 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 290DEG 27KT 3601 8564

07

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