Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
221 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

We're in a bit of a lull here waiting for more widespread convection
to begin. A couple of storms are on the Cumberland Plateau at
forecast time, but these should move off the Plateau in less than an
hour and our focus will then shift to our northwest counties. A few
storms have popped up in Montgomery and Roberston counties, but I
think the main development is still behind these storms, as the
front is back in the Paducah area.

It still looks like all of the necessary ingredients are in place
for damaging wind gusts with storms that develop this afternoon and
evening. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 5000 J/Kg are
blanketing areas west of I-65, downdraft CAPEs are around 1200 J/Kg,
mid-level lapse rates are good (~7.0 degrees/Km) and bulk shear
values of 25-30 kts are being seen, too. Not off the chart, but with
the instability values in place, it's not going to require a whole
lot of shear to help organize at least a couple of updrafts long
enough to warrant several warnings late this afternoon and evening.
PW values are also off the charts, obviously. This morning's OHX
sounding was showing just over 2.0 inches and latest LAPS sounding
have increased those numbers to 2.16 inches in the Metro area. Storm
motions are just high enough so I'm not overly concerned about
rainfall, but these storms will be efficient rainmakers, so some
localized flooding isn't out of the question in areas that typically
see poor drainage. You know who you are.

Most of the storm activity will push south of I-40 for the evening
hours and should be falling apart prior to the midnight hour and
once it ends, that's going to be it in the rain department for
several days. Temperatures will fall back towards normals for this
time of the year and drier air will help those 90-ish afternoon
temperatures feel more bearable. The dry air will also make a couple
of evening feel much cooler, too.

As we get into the last half of the workweek and into Saturday, the
upper level pattern should shift and become more southwesterly. This
will help temperatures rebound back into the mid-90s once again for
the weekend. Dew points will also be on the rise and Sunday night,
precipitation returns to the forecast. The first half of next week
could be wet, but at least we should be dry most of this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The first line of thunderstorms that came out of Kentucky this
morning have worked their way south of I-40 as of 17Z. Still
expect more thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon. VCTS
will be a safe bet all across Middle TN this afternoon and will
use that at all TAF sites starting at 18Z. Also tried to use the
higher resolution models to time the expected lines of
thunderstorms via TEMPO groups. For BNA and MQY expect this to be
between 22Z and 01Z. For CSV there could be two waves...one from
20Z to 22Z and then again from 00Z to 02Z. CKV was a bit harder as
it looks like the line of storms should develop east of here.
With that thinking will leave the VCTS for CKV. Conditions should
be VFR expect for in and around thunderstorms where MVFR and IFR
can be expected.

Once the thunderstorms die off later this evening...overnight fog
becomes an issue. IFR conditions will be possible area wide
starting around to after 08Z.

Winds will be southwest around 10kts this afternoon and evening.
Gustier in and around thunderstorms. Winds will become more
northerly tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  90  68  91  68 /  60   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    71  88  65  88  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
Crossville     69  83  63  84  61 /  80  10   0   0   0
Columbia       72  89  66  90  66 /  80   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   72  87  66  89  65 /  80   0   0   0   0
Waverly        72  89  67  89  67 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-
Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect west of the Cumberland Plateau
today. A dangerous combination of heat and humidity is expected
this afternoon with heat index values reaching 105 to 109 degrees.
Heat safety precautions are advised for any outdoor activities.

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop across southern Kentucky this afternoon, then spread
southeastward across all of Middle Tennessee from late afternoon
into the evening. Damaging winds are the main threat with these
storms, with heavy rainfall and localized flooding also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and evening.

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             1 SW WEST MEADE         36.11N  86.90W
08/13/2019  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TSPOTTER NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORT WITH PICTURE FROM WEST
            MEADE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900489

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             1 S CRIEVE HALL         36.06N  86.76W
08/13/2019  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TSPOTTER REPORT OF PEA AND NICKEL SIZED HAIL. PICTURE
            OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEXT TO A COIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900490

CM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE LEBANON           36.27N  86.28W
08/13/2019                   WILSON             TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE ACROSS ROADWAY IN COLES FERRY PIKE/CARIO BEND ROAD
            AREA AS WELL AS AROUND THE 1485 BLOCK OF OLD HUNTERS
            POINT PIKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900492

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
359 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW CRIEVE HALL        36.06N  86.77W
08/13/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TSPOTTER REPORT OF TREE DAMAGE IN CRIEVE HALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900493

CM