River Flood Advisory 64, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
354 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Most of Middle Tennessee has seen a break in the rain over the
last few hours, but the rain isn't done yet. A swath of moderate
rain that spent most of the night over west Tennessee has pushed
east and is currently impacting northwest Middle Tennessee. Expect
this to slide east this morning and bring a few waves of moderate
rain to most of the area through the day today. Yesterday's
rainfall totaled around half an inch for Clarksville, 0.78 at
Nashville, and 1.24 inches at Crossville. Today's wave is expected
to bring an additional 1 to 1.5 inches, with the higher totals in
the northwest. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect
through tonight to cover the continuing chance for flooding issues
to develop, especially later this morning and early afternoon as
the heaviest rain is expected to move across the area. Can't count
out some embedded rumbles of thunder today as well. Temperatures
have been slowly rising tonight as a warm front lifts northward.
Expect temperatures to reach the upper 50s today with gusty winds
out of the south.

Showers will gradually taper off this evening from west to east,
with some light showers lingering into Thursday morning. Thursday
will begin mostly dry as a surface high keeps rain chances just
to our south. As this high pressure system moves northeast, rain
will gradually push northward Thursday evening and become heavier
overnight and into Friday morning. The axis of heavy precip
Thursday night through Friday varies from model to model, but it
appears that a large portion of the area has a decent shot at
seeing rainfall totals from 1 to 3 inches. Although there should
be some lulls in the rain, it will continue off and on along a
very slow moving warm front through Friday night. Meanwhile a mid
level trough over the southern Rockies will deepen as it swings
northeast across the country, eventually becoming negatively
tilted by Saturday afternoon. This system should help to finally
push the rain out of our area, but will likely do so with some
gusto. Current models are indicating a low CAPE, high shear
scenario developing on Saturday with the potential for damaging
winds. The timing and details are still up in the air, so for now,
keep an eye on Saturday afternoon and evening. In addition to the
storm chances, flooding will continue to be a concern thanks to
saturated grounds, high running rivers, and another 1 to 2 inches
of forecast rainfall with this final wave.

Conditions will gradually dry after the passage of the cold front
from the aforementioned system Saturday night. Sunday and Monday
should be mostly dry, but models differ as we near the end of the
forecast and a zonal pattern develops. The GFS wants to introduce
some light precip by mid week with the ECMWF keeping conditions
dry. Dry conditions would certainly be a welcome sight unless
we're hoping to blow away the February rainfall record for
Nashville. In that case, one last round of rain would probably
secure that title for us, if we don't reach it this weekend. As of
midnight last night the monthly rainfall total for Nashville was
9.10 inches. In order to break or tie the record, we'll need to
reach 12.37 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A warm front will continue lifting northward
across Middle Tennessee, allowing winds to switch around to the
south and increase our warm advection overnight. Ceilings have
settled into the IFR/MVFR range, and will stay there the remainder
of tonight and most of tomorrow before a cold front sweeps through
late tomorrow and tomorrow evening and clears us out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  39  53  44  57 /  90  70  20  60  90
Clarksville    58  36  53  41  54 /  90  40  10  50  70
Crossville     54  41  56  43  55 /  90  90  20  60  90
Columbia       59  39  53  43  59 /  90  80  20  80  90
Lawrenceburg   59  40  54  45  60 /  90  80  20  80  90
Waverly        58  38  52  42  55 /  90  60  20  60  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211115-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flash flooding and rises on creeks and rivers will be possible
this morning and early afternoon as waves of heavy rainfall
impact the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

More rain will bring a continued threat of flash flooding Friday
morning through Saturday night. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches will be possible across Middle Tennessee. These totals,
combined with the recent rainfall and already saturated ground,
could lead to significant flooding across the area.

Some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may affect parts
of Middle Tennessee on Saturday or Saturday night. Damaging winds
and flooding will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed from Tuesday through
Sunday due to the potential for flooding.

11