River Flood Advisory 41, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
154 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A warm front currently extends across the Ohio Valley, then
southwestward into a low centered near the TX/OK border. Middle
Tennessee remains locked into an unusually warm and moist air
mass this morning. Fortunately, the earlier heavy rain that
produced considerable flooding across parts of Middle Tennessee
yesterday afternoon and evening has dissipated. The 06Z sounding
from OHX shows a nearly saturated column up to ~535 mb.
Precipitable water is a summer-like 1.60 inches. The latest
models, including the HRRR, show very little activity across
Middle Tennessee until tomorrow afternoon when a cold front
finally enters the mid state. Will keep chance POP's in the
forecast grids during the morning should a few cells pop up in the
pre-frontal air mass, but it doesn't appear that we'll be dealing
with echo training like we did last evening, fortunately. QPF for
tomorrow and tomorrow night ranges from less than one-half inch
across the Cumberland Plateau and places near the Alabama state
line, up to 3/4 inch in areas to the north and west of Nashville.
So it doesn't appear that the additional rainfall will be
excessive. Still, rivers are obviously rising and several are
forecast to approach or exceed flood stage as a result of
yesterday's rainfall, so any additional rainfall will only
exacerbate these increased water levels. In addition, the SPC has
most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau under a
marginal risk of severe storms today, with a slight risk closer
to the Tennessee River. The SPC cites increased shear and surface
warming ahead of the front as contributors to a potential for
low-topped thunderstorms, damaging straight-line winds, and
possibly a tornado or two. It looks like high temperatures today
will shatter records, but the cold advection behind the front will
also be quite dramatic. Looking ahead, another multi- day rain
event is setting up for next week, with rain moving in by Sunday
afternoon, and not ending until the next cold frontal passage on
Tuesday. At this time, cumulative QPF values for this event are
running 2 to 3 inches, which is not something we need. Yesterday's
4-inch rain measured at BNA already exceeds normal rainfall for
the month, and we'll only have a couple of dry days before the
next event. It appears that many of our rivers will be running
higher than usual for awhile.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Shower activity is tapering off per regional radar trends, with
only light scattered showers expected for the rest of the night.
Conditions will gradually improve, however gusty winds will pick
up through the afternoon with gusts to 30 kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  27  38  20  43 /  70  90   0   0   0
Clarksville    72  25  35  17  39 /  90  90   0   0   0
Crossville     70  28  36  19  41 /  20 100  10   0   0
Columbia       75  28  40  20  43 /  60  90   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   75  30  40  21  45 /  50 100   0   0   0
Waverly        73  25  37  19  41 /  90  90   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 AM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
500 AM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Wednesday and
Wednesday night across most of Middle Tennessee. The best chance
for severe storms is around Clarksville, Dover and Erin. The primary
threat is damaging straight-line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Rain and thunderstorms will become heavier and more widespread
today and will last into Thursday evening before a strong cold
frontal passage. Expected rainfall totals for this event range
from less than an inch across the southern Cumberland Plateau to
more than 2.5 inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-
Lakes. Some flooding is possible in these areas, especially
Thursday and Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
111 AM CST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 36.21N  86.32W
02/06/2019                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARTHA LEEVILLE ROAD AND EASTGATE BLVD VEHICLE STUCK
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900064

FBORDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
117 AM CST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 36.21N  86.32W
02/06/2019                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4200 BLOCK OF LEBANON ROAD, WATER IS APPRAOCHING A
            HOME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900065

FBORDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
119 AM CST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 36.21N  86.32W
02/06/2019                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JOHNSON ROAD HARTSVILLE PK RAOD CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900066

FBORDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 AM CST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 36.21N  86.32W
02/06/2019                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2100 BLOCK FO BEASLEY BEND ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900067

FBORDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
127 AM CST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT JULIET            36.21N  86.52W
02/07/2019                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LIST OF ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. WOODRIDGE
            PLACE NEAR GOLDEN BEAR GATEWAY. W. DIVISION STREET NEAR
            MT. JULIET ELEMENTARY. OLD LEBANON DIRT ROAD NEAR PAGE
            DRIVE. CEDAR DRIVE BEHIND VALLEY CENTER. YOR ROAD NEAR
            LEBANON ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900068

FBORDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
221 AM CST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 36.21N  86.32W
02/07/2019                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER IS MOVING INTO DOWNTOWN LEBANON (US 231 AND W.
            SPRING STREET). WATER HAS GOTTEN INTO SOME OF THE
            BUILDINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900069

FBORDEN