River Flood Advisory 33, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
555 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We had expected a band of heavy showers to set up over our
northwest counties today, but the frontal zone has sagged
southward with the heaviest band of showers focused along and
south of Interstate 40. Within the bands of showers, one half
inch amounts have been common with some spots like southern
Hickman County into southern Williamson County picking up over 1
inch from the heavier downpours.

Going into the evening, showers will be most likely along and
north of I-40. Deep moisture will continue to stream into the
area with near record level precipitable water values. Many areas
will pick up 1 inch of rainfall, but some localized 2 inch amounts
may occur. Localized street/urban flooding may occur, but we do
not think a flood watch is needed at this time as the pockets of
heavy rainfall are transient. We are likely to see some big rises
on creeks and streams, and rivers will eventually respond. Some
points along the Cumberland are expected to reach action stage
within the next couple of days. The main impact from the rain
today and tonight will be to set the stage for future flood
potential. That could be an issue Thursday evening, but more
likely early next week when a period of prolonged rainy wx is
expected.

A couple of strong to marginally severe thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out through tonight, and squirrelly winds along the frontal
zone mean that tornado chances do exist. But, with marginal
instability and weak lapse rates, the overall threat is very low.

Late tonight, the low level boundary will begin to lift northward
as a low pressure system cranks up over the Mid Ms Valley. This
will lift the heavier showers north of our area by daybreak.
Temperatures will not change much through the night with readings
mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

During the daytime Thursday, most of the area will get into the
warm sector, with gusty south winds over 35 mph at times and
record setting temperature well into the 70s. A wind advisory may
be needed for a few gusts over 40 mph, and the overnight
forecasters can make that determination.

A band of showers with some heavy downpours will be moving into
our far west counties late Thursday afternoon ahead of a strong
cold front. The showers and front will sweep across the area
mainly Thursday evening with rainfall averaging around one half
inch.

Friday will be a shocker, with highs around 35 degrees colder
than Thursday's highs. Friday night will be clear and cold with
lows in the teens and lower 20s. Dry and chilly wx sticks around
Saturday as well.

Just as quick as winter makes a return for Friday and Saturday,
early spring will start to return again on Sunday. Rainy and mild
wx is expected for the first half of next week. Rain totals of 2
to 3 inches are expected, which could lead to flooding concerns
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Expect VIS and CIGS to bounce around MVFR and IFR early this
evening as waves of heavy rain and thunderstorms move through the
mid-state. After 12Z tomorrow, all sites should see some
improvement ahead of the next round expected later that afternoon,
but winds to pick up from the south with gusts to near 30kts
possible after 18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 AM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
500 AM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Wednesday and
Wednesday night across most of Middle Tennessee. The best chance
for severe storms is around Clarksville, Dover and Erin. The primary
threat is damaging straight-line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Rain and thunderstorms will become heavier and more widespread
today and will last into Thursday evening before a strong cold
frontal passage. Expected rainfall totals for this event range
from less than an inch across the southern Cumberland Plateau to
more than 2.5 inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-
Lakes. Some flooding is possible in these areas, especially
Thursday and Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today and tonight.

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