Tornado Warning 15, NWS Omaha, NE

710 
WWUS53 KOAX 242301
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
601 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAC085-242315-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190924T2315Z/
Harrison IA-
601 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY...
    
At 559 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles southwest of
Dunlap, or 25 miles southwest of Denison, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado 5 miles southeast of 
         Pisgah. Two brief touchdowns occurred between 550 PM and 
         557 PM. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Dunlap around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Woodbine, Dunlap, Schaben Park and Willow Lake Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 9579 4183 9581 4187 9565 4186 9556
      4171 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 262DEG 22KT 4178 9575 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

Dergan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

An upper trough continued to dig into the Northern Plains today,
pulling northwesterly flow over the forecast area.  At the surface,
a cold front will drift southeast through southeast Minnesota,
western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and across central Kansas.
southerly low level flow will pull moisture and warmer
temperatures into the the region ahead of the front. Dewpoints
have already risen to the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.
Temperatures have climbed into the the low to mid 80s. Storms are
expected to fire late this afternoon and early evening, in the
warm sector just ahead of the boundary. 0-6 km bulk shear will
increase to 30-40 kts across the area, leading to the potential
for supercells initially. A special 19Z sounding this afternoon
depicted surface based CAPE up to 3800 J/kg this afternoon, as
mid-level lapse rates increased to nearly 7 C/km. Large hail will
be the primary threat initially. In addition, strong winds and a
tornado or two may also be possible, given strong SRH and
impressive hodograph curvature. Storms are expected to eventually
congeal into a line as they continue to trek southeast through the
region this evening. Expect precipitation chances to exit the far
southeast corner of the CWA by around midnight tonight.

Dry weather will return for Wednesday through most of Thursday as
higher pressure builds into the region. There is a small chance for
a few showers and storms as the low level jet increases late
Thursday night. Otherwise, high temperatures will rise into the
70s Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight, lows will dip into the 50s
tonight, and fall into the upper 40s and low 50s early Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

On and off precipitation chances will continue through the extended
period.  The first chance will primarily be across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa Friday, along a weak surface boundary draped
over the region. Southwesterly flow will dominate aloft as we head
into the weekend.  The next best chances for showers and storms will
be Saturday night-Sunday, and again Monday-Tuesday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s Friday and Saturday,
before rising into the low 80s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

VFR conditions are expected for the most part through the TAF
period. The exception will be KOMA and KLNK between 24/23Z and
25/02Z as a line of convection is forecast to move across the TAF
sites. This could bring variable conditions with a few severe
storms possible. These storms will be initiating along a southward
moving cold front. Winds behind the cold front will turn to the
northwest but should remain under 10kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251015-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
315 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from 4pm through 11pm
across much of the area. The strongest storms may contain large
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes, especially along and
north of Interstate 80 across western Iowa. Widespread rainfall
amounts on the order of a quarter to a half inch are possible with
locally higher amounts possible in the stronger storms.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue along the Missouri River
above Lewis and Clark Lake, and from near Decatur southward past
Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

Missouri River levels should be falling slowly at all locations
the next few days. Water levels around Decatur and Omaha could
drop to near or below flood stage by Friday or Saturday. Other
sites should remain above flood stage at least into next week.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible from late Thursday
night through the weekend. Later outlooks will address the
potential for severe storms in those periods.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may likely be needed after 4pm.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

NEZ015-033-034-242115-
Thurston NE-Burt NE-Cuming NE-
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BURT...NORTHEASTERN
CUMING AND SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bancroft, or 32 miles south of Sioux City, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bancroft, Decatur, Macy and Rosalie.

LAT...LON 4213 9629 4210 9627 4208 9628 4204 9627
      4204 9624 4203 9622 4201 9625 4199 9623
      4201 9620 4196 9617 4200 9660 4208 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 271DEG 27KT 4204 9657

Dergan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
506 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             TEKAMAH                 41.78N 96.22W
09/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       BURT               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
509 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             2 N TEKAMAH             41.81N 96.23W
09/24/2019  U1.75 INCH       BURT               NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: GOLF BALL (1.75 IN.).

&&

PF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
541 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             2 NW LITTLE SIOUX       41.82N 96.03W
09/24/2019  M1.75 INCH       HARRISON           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&