Wind Advisory 4, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

038 
WWUS76 KMTR 152123
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
123 PM PST Tue Jan 15 2019

CAZ517-530-161100-
/O.CAN.KMTR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190116T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KMTR.HW.A.0001.190116T2100Z-190117T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.HW.W.0001.190116T2100Z-190117T1100Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
Including the cities of Seaside, Monterey, and Marina
123 PM PST Tue Jan 15 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a High
Wind Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST
Thursday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...An even stronger wind event will develop early
  Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night 
  as a strong cold front moves through the Bay Area.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CAZ516-528-161100-
/O.CAN.KMTR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190116T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KMTR.HW.A.0001.190116T2100Z-190117T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.WI.Y.0005.190116T2100Z-190117T1100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-
Including the cities of Greenfield, King City, and Salinas
123 PM PST Tue Jan 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST
Thursday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...An even stronger wind event will develop early 
  Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night 
  as a strong cold front moves through the Bay Area.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CAZ006-505-507-509-511-512-518-529-161100-
/O.UPG.KMTR.HW.A.0001.190116T2100Z-190117T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.HW.W.0001.190116T2100Z-190117T1100Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
North Bay Mountains-San Francisco Peninsula Coast-
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-Santa Cruz Mountains-
Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County
Including Pinnacles National Park-Northern Monterey Bay-
Including the cities of San Francisco, Tamalpais-Homestead, 
Sausalito, Angwin, Lagunitas-Forest Knolls, Woodacre, Pacifica, 
Blackhawk, Scotts Valley, Boulder Creek, Day Valley, Santa Cruz, 
Watsonville, and Live Oak
123 PM PST Tue Jan 15 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a High
Wind Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST
Thursday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday 
  night as a strong cold front moves through the Bay Area.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CAZ506-508-510-513-161100-
/O.UPG.KMTR.HW.A.0001.190116T2100Z-190117T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.WI.Y.0005.190116T2100Z-190117T1100Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-
East Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-
Including the cities of Santa Rosa, South Santa Rosa, Napa, 
San Rafael, Petaluma, Novato, Rohnert Park, Oakland, Fremont, 
Hayward, Daly City, Berkeley, Concord, Antioch, Livermore, 
Walnut Creek, Pleasanton, Pittsburg, San Ramon, and San Jose
123 PM PST Tue Jan 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST
Thursday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday 
  night as a strong cold front moves through the Bay Area.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
331 AM PST Tue Jan 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching storm system will push inland over the
Central Coast this afternoon resulting in strong gusty winds,
widespread rain showers and potential for an isolated thunderstorm
or two. Lingering showers will tapper off through the night before a
stronger and more organized cold front impacts the region on
Wednesday with strong winds and heavy rainfall. Lingering showers
continue into thursday with a drying trend Friday into Saturday
before another slight chance of light precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 03:30 AM PST Tuesday...Isolated to scattered
showers continue to push inland from the Pacific this morning as
an upper level short-wave disturbance approaches the coast. Have
also seen isolated thunderstorms over the Pacific since late last
evening with some cells even indicating weak rotation at times.
The latest forecast models continue to indicate an increase in
rain showers, both in coverage and intensity through late morning
and into the early afternoon. The ARW, NMM and even the HRRR show
surface low pressure also deepening as the aforementioned system
approaches the Central Coast during the 18-21Z timeframe. These
high-resolution models show 925MB winds associated with this
system exceeding 50 kts (up to 70 kts just off the Big Sur Coast
in the NMM). Thus, do believe there is a potential for a brief
period of strong, gusty winds of up to 45 mph along portions of
the Central Coast late this morning and into the early afternoon.
Thus, have issued a Wind Advisory from 10 am - 4 pm for these
areas. It is worth mentioning that localized gusts in the coastal
ranges may even exceed 45 mph and given the southeast orientation,
could see strong winds channel up the Salinas Valley as well.
Something we will keep a close eye on.

Rainfall amounts through tonight will range from 0.25"-0.50" with
slightly greater totals across the Central Coast where the focus of
heavier rainfall is expected. Meanwhile, could see a period of
locally heavy rainfall in the coastal ranges along the Big Sur Coast
this afternoon where totals of 1.00"-3.00" (isolated amounts up to
4.00") will be possible. This could lead to localized flooding
concerns in the coastal areas south of the Monterey Peninsula.

Showers are forecast to diminish in coverage later in the day as the
surface low pressure pushes inland around the Monterey Bay and then
lifts northward. However, southwest flow is forecast to develop in
wake of the exiting system which would be conducive for light to
occasionally moderate rain to continue along the south/southwest
facing slopes through the night. Meanwhile, inland and valley
locations should see conditions dry out later in the day with only
light rainfall amounts expected through Wednesday morning.

Now for the main event! The forecast models remain in good agreement
with respect to a more potent mid/upper level low developing over
the norther Pacific that will then advance toward the Pacific
Northwest Coast on Thursday. This system will tap into a much deeper
plume of moisture and drive a cold front across the San Francisco
and Monterey Bay Area Wednesday into Wednesday night. IVT values in
the 500 to 750 kg/m/s are forecast to advect inland and result in
widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the region.
Rain is expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the
North Bay around midday Wednesday and then march southward through
late Wednesday night. Given recent rainfall, the threat for urban
and small stream/creek flooding will increase as rainfall rates may
approach 0.75"-1.00" per hour at times ahead of and along the main
frontal band. There will also be the potential for convection to
develop with isolated lightning strikes, small hail and strong gusty
winds from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. In addition,
strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast to develop ahead of
the frontal passage. Thus, will continue a High Wind Watch from
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as wind gusts of 50 to 60
mph will be possible. Will continue to fine tune the details as the
event draws nearer. Rain showers are then forecast to linger into
Thursday morning before drying conditions return late in the day
Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1.00"-2.00"
in most urban areas and up to 2.50" in the North Bay Valleys.
Coastal ranges will likely see 3.00"-6.00" of additional rainfall
from Wednesday into Thursday. Again, these rainfall amounts will
likely result in rapid rises on area creeks and streams. However,
widespread flooding of the main stem rivers is not expected at this
time. For additional information, please see the Hydrologic Outlook
(ESFMTR).

Dry conditions are likely to continue Friday into Saturday. One
additional frontal system is expected to drop southward across the
region on Sunday. However the latest forecast models have been less
bullish on rainfall amounts and are currently only expected light to
moderate rainfall, especially for the northern half of the region.
Areas along the Central Coast may see little to no measurable
rainfall as the system could potentially dissipate as it reaches
this portion of the state. Dry conditions then appear likely for the
latter half of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:52 PM PST Monday...VFR-MVFR, a band of heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed over the coastal
waters and it's lifting to the north at approx 30 mph. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may briefly move over land overnight. A few
patches of fog are also possible overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...E-SE wind near 10 knots tonight, gusty at times
to 20 knots Tuesday morning. VFR. Showers.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...E-SE wind mainly light except vicinity
KSNS SE 10-20 knots possibly higher gusts 25-30 knots beginning
early Tuesday. VFR. Showers, possibly isolated thunderstorm until
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...as of 03:30 AM PST Tuesday...Gusty southerly winds will
continue across the waters through tonight. Widespread gale force
winds and gusts will then develop on Wednesday and Thursday over
the waters and bays as a strong Pacific storm system moves into
the region. This system will bring heavy rainfall and scattered
thunderstorms Wednesday night into late Thursday morning. A very
large west swell is forecast to arrive on Thursday. This will make
for hazardous conditions across the coastal waters. Mariners are
urged to monitor weather forecast closely this week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Wind Advisory...CAZ516-517-528-530
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar until 10 AM
             SCA...Mry Bay from 10 AM
             SCA...SF Bay from 1 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: AS

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
654 AM PST Mon Jan 14 2019

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-150800-
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
North Bay Interior Valleys-North Bay Mountains-
San Francisco Bay Shoreline-San Francisco Peninsula Coast-
East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-
Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County
Including Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-
Northern Monterey Bay-Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
654 AM PST Mon Jan 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for the San Francisco Bay Area
and Central Coast

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some scattered showers will continue today into tonight. Gusty
southeast to east winds will persist near the coast and coastal
hills with gusts to 35 mph likely at times as low pressure deepens
off the coast. Scattered showers will continue overnight into
Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periods of light rain continue on Tuesday but with minimal impacts
expected. A strong front arrives Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Heavy rain will develop across the North Bay
first and then spread southward, wreaking havoc on the Wednesday
afternoon/evening commute. Strong winds will accompany the
frontal passage which could bring down trees and branches. The
heavy rain will likely lead to urban and small stream flooding as
the front moves through Wednesday night. On average 3-6 inches of
rain will be possible in the hills with 1-3 inches in the lower
elevations by Thursday morning with much of the rain falling
during a short window late Wednesday as the front moves through.

Expect rapid rises on small streams but large rivers are forecast
to remain well within bankfull.

High pressure builds Friday and Saturday with dry weather. Another
chance of light rain on Sunday.