Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
302 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...
Longwave upper-level troughing will continue tonight and Friday
across the region with a similar pattern in place. As showers and
thunderstorms decrease in coverage this evening with the loss of
daytime heating, we will have a clearing sky. Areas that received
rain this evening and river valleys are likely to experience some
fog by Friday morning. Overnight lows should be near seasonal
normals.

Morning fog will dissipate midmorning with increasing convective
mixing and cumulus development along the higher elevations by
midday. Once again, highest PoPs will be along the higher
elevations of the mountains and the Cumberland Plateau. MLCAPE
should be near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear will be
approximately 10 to 20 kt. This will again favor mostly pulse
convection with a few localized downbursts possible. Moisture will
be increasing with PW values near 1.7 inch, so a few heavy
downpours will be possible. Temperatures are expected to be within
a few degrees of normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)...
A blocking pattern with strong ridges over the desert SW and the
western Atlantic will maintain a broad trough over the eastern
Conus through the weekend. The pattern that we have seen for the
past few days of scattered afternoon showers and t'storms mainly
initiating in the Plateau and mountains will continue into
Saturday.

A slight change to the pattern is expected to arrive Saturday night
when a shortwave trough drops southeast from the MO Valley to AR. A
midlevel deformation zone develops over the TN Valley/Srn
Appalachians that will enhance lift as a southerly low-to-midlevel
flow strengthens. PW values rise to near 2 inches by Sunday morning,
so heavy rainfall may be possible at times. The slow movement of the
trough suggests this heavy rain potential may continue all day on
Sunday. However, there is still uncertainty with this system as
models are not all in agreement. The NAM and GFS agree on the wet
scenario, while the ECMWF and SREF are much drier, showing a less
amplified trough that keeps deep moisture to our south. For this
package, will raise PoPs to likely for most of the area, except SW
VA, and will add a mention of heavy rain/localized flooding
potential to the HWO.

The broad trough begins to make some eastward progress on Monday,
which will begin a start of lowering rain chances through the rest
of the forecast. PoPs will remain in the chance range on Monday with
the trough axis overhead, but lower to a slight chance Tuesday as it
moves east of the Appalachians. Through Wednesday and Thursday, we
will have a NW flow aloft that should result in little if any rain
chances both days and near normal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  88  70  86 /  30  50  30  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  86  69  86 /  20  30  20  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  87  68  86 /  20  30  20  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  85  64  84 /  20  40  30  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

JB/DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-021915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
306 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 /206 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected, especially
this afternoon into early evening. A few of these thunderstorms
may become strong to severe, with locally damaging winds along
with torrential downpours which may cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday may have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged
to submit any reports of severe weather through the web by going
to www.weather.gov/mrx/SpotterReports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

TNZ073-074-011915-
Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-North Sevier TN-
236 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SEVIER COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gatlinburg. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Pittman Center, Elkmont and Great Smoky
Mountains National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8364 3591 8332 3589 8331 3589 8332
      3588 8331 3587 8331 3587 8330 3582 8328
      3578 8329 3577 8327 3574 8328 3563 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 241DEG 4KT 3575 8349

DGS

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