Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Short term concern remains isolated weak tornado threat/severe
threat through the afternoon/early evening.

Latest SPC mesoscale discussion delineates tornado/severe threat.
Still could see funnels/weak tornado with the line of storms
moving through central MN at this time. Surface vorticity remains
along the surface boundary with 150 J/kg 0-3km CAPE. Latest HRRR
SSCRAM showing hail and wind potential developing as well as the
line approaches the metro/east central MN. This should be highly
diurnal with dissipation likely into early evening. Will hold onto
some lower end PoPs through about 06z Wed. Clouds expected much
of the night with stratus possible as the weak surface low drops
southeast and exits the area.

Clouds and possible fog, mainly over far southern MN will be
likely into Wednesday morning. Latest deterministic models show
quite a bit of lower level RH along with highly negative cu rule
through the morning at least. Will mention slight chance
SHRA/ISOLD thunder over south central MN into the afternoon per
trend of some HIRES/deterministic models. Little in the way of
instability noted with clouds remaining much of the day,
especially over the south. Temperatures will cool into the lower
and mid 70s for the afternoon highs.

Expect some clearing into Wednesday night. Light winds and mostly
clear sky, we should see greater potential for fog forming after
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Progressive zonal to weak northwest flow aloft continues through the
weekend, which will keep temperatures normal to below normal and
result in a few chances at showers and thunderstorms. Ridging builds
into the region early next week, with the jet stream lifting far
north into canada and ushering in a return to warmer conditions.

A weak shortwave ripples through the zonal flow aloft Thursday into
Friday, with guidance in good agreement in generating a band of
showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas and tracking it east
across MN/WI Thursday night into Friday. Gulf moisture looks to
remain limited to the mid-Mississippi valley, which will limit the PW
and instability available across the upper Midwest along with the
threat for any heavy rain/severe weather. On the heels of this
system, a trough pivots out of the Pacific into the Upper Midwest,
but there is still a fair amount of disagreement among the models on
when we see the greatest chance for precipitation from this feature.
Have kept PoPs in the chance range for much of the weekend to
account for these timing discrepancies, although this will hopefully
become more refined temporally as models get a better handle on the
trough as we get closer to the weekend.

Temperatures will stay seasonably cool through the weekend with
zonal/weak NW flow aloft Thu/Fri and then troughing over the
weekend. The jet lifts north into Canada as the trough departs to
the east, with ridging building into the area from the southwest.
This will likely lead to a warmer stretch of weather next week,
although it is too early to say just how warm temperatures may
get.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Overall trend in the forecast looks good. Will continue to mention
best threat of thunder along and east of the I94 corridor this
afternoon into the evening as the weak surface low/front moves
southeast. Will likely see at least brief heavy rain with the
stronger cells and perhaps some hail/strong wind gusts as well,
especially from east central MN into southeast MN into the
evening. MVFR cigs likely as the upper low moves in and winds
turn more NW into tonight. May see IFR cigs/FG develop,
especially across far southern MN later tonight. SREF probs not
too high but the possibility is there. May be stratus deck with
dense fog but not expected to be widespread. SHould see cigs lift
into Wednesday morning becoming VFR.

KMSP...
Best timing for convection 21z-24z with lingering -shra threat
into the early evening. Should see brief IFR vsbys with heavy rain
with the stronger convection. MVFR cigs likely following the rain
with winds shifting more N overnight. Expect overall MVFR cigs to
lift to VFR for Wednesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA overnight. Wind W 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into
tonight over much of central Minnesota through western Wisconsin.
There is a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from central
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The main hazards are large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rain, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out, especially along the I94 corridor this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible at times
starting Thursday and continuing into early next week. Severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed may be needed in central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TORNADO          2 S LEMOND              43.95N 93.38W
08/13/2019  UF1              STEELE             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHONED IN REPORT OF BRIEF ROPE TORNADO.

&&

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
434 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E ELLENDALE           43.87N 93.28W
08/13/2019                   STEELE             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHONED IN REPORT.

&&

CTG

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