Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 12, 2019Rice County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this special weather statement at Jul 12, 2019, 1:16 PM CDT for Rice County, Minnesota. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2019, 1:16 PM CDT (18:16 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2019, 1:45 PM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN

County Rice County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1558 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 12, 5:59 AM CDT, 7 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 5:59 AM CDT, 7 hours 17 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

A cold front is pushing across northern Minnesota early this
morning. Isolated thunderstorms have been firing along it
periodically overnight. This trend is expected to continue today and
this evening as the front sags southeast. The best forcing for
ascent will remain northeast of the area and displaced from the
greater instability south of the front. Convergence along the front
isn't expected to be impressive either; therefore, coverage will
remain 15-30 percent, highest expected across WI nearest to the best
deep layer forcing. Surface dew points in the upper 60s to near 70
will be pooling along the front and contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg of
CAPE. In addition, mid level westerlies in the 40-50 kt range will
bring bulk shear values of 35-40 kt in the warm sector. The
instability/shear parameter space suggests supercells (and line
segments given the largely unidirectional flow) will be possible and
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

The isolated diurnal activity should wane after sunset, however a
modest low level jet will develop with the terminus over southwest
MN. This will likely generate additional cells along the stalled
front across far southern MN into northern Iowa overnight into early
Saturday. By late morning Saturday, the storms will shift southeast
and the rest of the day will be dry.

Thermal ridging along and south of the front should bring highs into
the upper 80s today, with a 90 possible here and there. A slightly
cooler air mass will push in Saturday, but light or calm winds
Saturday should allow for a superadiabatic profile and we should
reach the mid or upper 80s again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Not too much has changed with respect to the longer term forecast.
A broad upper ridge over the central US will work into the area
over the weekend, then flatten slightly through midweek (although
we'll be well entrenched in the heat and humidity). A decent upper
trough is forecast to dig into the northwest US by most of the
guidance Friday into next weekend, which would help to re-amplify
the upper ridge across our area, and perhaps result in us seeing
our warmest temperatures of the year at the end of the week.
However, spread in the guidance (and ensemble systems) increases
quite a bit once we get beyond Wednesday, so stuck fairly close to
the consensus forecast at this point. That being said, above
normal temperatures are expected through the week, with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. It's still a bit tough to
have much confidence in the timing and location of precipitation
chances since much will depend upon weak shortwaves moving around
the upper ridge (and resultant MCS activity). Given the
instability that will be in place, some severe weather is
certainly still possible over the course of the week, with shear
looking best around midweek when the upper jet gets a bit closer
to the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop along a cold front today, mainly across eastern MN
into western WI. Additional storms could fire near and south of
MKT overnight tonight. Otherwise, south winds will veer westerly
this afternoon and then northerly overnight, becoming light and
variable into Saturday.

KMSP...Left any mention of TSRA out of the TAF due to the low
coverage expected. Best chance would be east of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Slight chance of -TSRA. Winds SSW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Slight chance of -TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Slight chance of -TSRA. Winds light and variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 1:14 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:33 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 12:50 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 12, 1:00 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 1:05 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 1:12 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 1:16 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 10:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Yellow Medicine	40 min
Jul 12, 10:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Yellow Medicine	39 min
Jul 12, 11:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Redwood, Yellow Medicine	30 min
Jul 12, 11:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Yellow Medicine	36 min
Jul 12, 11:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Renville	44 min
Jul 12, 12:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	McLeod, Sibley	25 min
Jul 12, 12:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Sibley	33 min
Jul 12, 12:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	McLeod	30 min
Jul 12, 12:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Carver, McLeod, Scott, Sibley	35 min
Jul 12, 12:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Carver	40 min
Jul 12, 1:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Le Sueur	25 min
Jul 12, 1:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Dakota, Hennepin, Scott	48 min
Jul 12, 1:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Scott	34 min
Jul 12, 1:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Ramsey, Washington	37 min
Jul 12, 1:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Goodhue	47 min
Jul 12, 2:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Pepin, Pierce	49 min
Jul 12, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Rusk	25 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.