Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

A cold front is pushing across northern Minnesota early this
morning. Isolated thunderstorms have been firing along it
periodically overnight. This trend is expected to continue today and
this evening as the front sags southeast. The best forcing for
ascent will remain northeast of the area and displaced from the
greater instability south of the front. Convergence along the front
isn't expected to be impressive either; therefore, coverage will
remain 15-30 percent, highest expected across WI nearest to the best
deep layer forcing. Surface dew points in the upper 60s to near 70
will be pooling along the front and contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg of
CAPE. In addition, mid level westerlies in the 40-50 kt range will
bring bulk shear values of 35-40 kt in the warm sector. The
instability/shear parameter space suggests supercells (and line
segments given the largely unidirectional flow) will be possible and
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

The isolated diurnal activity should wane after sunset, however a
modest low level jet will develop with the terminus over southwest
MN. This will likely generate additional cells along the stalled
front across far southern MN into northern Iowa overnight into early
Saturday. By late morning Saturday, the storms will shift southeast
and the rest of the day will be dry.

Thermal ridging along and south of the front should bring highs into
the upper 80s today, with a 90 possible here and there. A slightly
cooler air mass will push in Saturday, but light or calm winds
Saturday should allow for a superadiabatic profile and we should
reach the mid or upper 80s again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Not too much has changed with respect to the longer term forecast.
A broad upper ridge over the central US will work into the area
over the weekend, then flatten slightly through midweek (although
we'll be well entrenched in the heat and humidity). A decent upper
trough is forecast to dig into the northwest US by most of the
guidance Friday into next weekend, which would help to re-amplify
the upper ridge across our area, and perhaps result in us seeing
our warmest temperatures of the year at the end of the week.
However, spread in the guidance (and ensemble systems) increases
quite a bit once we get beyond Wednesday, so stuck fairly close to
the consensus forecast at this point. That being said, above
normal temperatures are expected through the week, with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. It's still a bit tough to
have much confidence in the timing and location of precipitation
chances since much will depend upon weak shortwaves moving around
the upper ridge (and resultant MCS activity). Given the
instability that will be in place, some severe weather is
certainly still possible over the course of the week, with shear
looking best around midweek when the upper jet gets a bit closer
to the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop along a cold front today, mainly across eastern MN
into western WI. Additional storms could fire near and south of
MKT overnight tonight. Otherwise, south winds will veer westerly
this afternoon and then northerly overnight, becoming light and
variable into Saturday.

KMSP...Left any mention of TSRA out of the TAF due to the low
coverage expected. Best chance would be east of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Slight chance of -TSRA. Winds SSW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Slight chance of -TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Slight chance of -TSRA. Winds light and variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131300-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
310 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today into this evening, with a
marginal risk of severe weather. Any thunderstorms that do develop
will also have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat and humidity, along with periodic thunderstorm chances, will
persist through Wednesday. A few severe thunderstorms are
possible over that time period. Any storms that develop will also
be capable of producing excessive rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is not anticipated.

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