Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

A very slow MCV over western Minnesota has been struggling to
make much eastward progress after the mid morning hours.
Widespread showers associated with it have been keeping western
MN wet for most of the day. The heaviest cores are nearest the low
center, where rainfall rates of a 1/2 to 1 inch/hr are occurring.
The showers will expand eastward slowly late this afternoon.
Cloud tops warmed and some decrease in the overcast late this
morning led to a fair amount of sun today across southern MN and
western WI. Therefore, we should see some cells build into
thunderstorms during the next couple hours. Given the slow
movement of the system as a whole, the cores aren't expected to
move much and if rainfall rates continue to increase with
strengthening convection then flash flooding will become a
concern. The area most at risk for this is currently developing
just south of Willmar, but should expand eastward to the Twin
Cities metro by this evening. Eventually the MCV will weaken this
evening and the loss of daytime instability should allow precip to
gradually weaken after sunset as it heads into WI. PoPs trend
downward after about 8 PM and most of the precip will be done by
midnight.

The forecast for Saturday still remains a bit uncertain with
regard to precip potential. For the last several days, guidance
has not handled these MCVs well at all and there will be another
one approaching from the west for Saturday. This MCV is currently
over southeastern MT. The overall consensus still appears to be a
gradual shearing of this feature for the next 24 hours. With high
pressure building to the north and a bit drier air in place, the
hand is tilted more toward a drier forecast than what has
transpired today. Couldn't remove PoPs tomorrow, but didn't have
much evidence to increase them either. Therefore, maintained a low
chance PoP, mostly across southern MN.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Confidence in the extended period remains medium based on the mean
flow aloft from the models which provided a good scenario on the
best chance of precipitation Tuesday, and Tuesday night. Models have
some timing differences and strength of the short wave moving out of
the Rockies and into the Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest Tuesday,
and into Wednesday. Overall, fairly well wind shear, instability,
and moisture availability indicates a good swath of thunderstorms
will occur sometime Tuesday, and Tuesday night. However, any severe
weather is dependent on timing.

For Sunday, and Monday, an upper ridge will build across the region.
However, at the surface, return flow develops and may allow for
isolated storms during the typical afternoon/early evening time
frame where localized surface moisture convergence is noted.

After the main short wave moves across the region Wednesday, a
couple of days of mostly dry conditions should prevail. Models also
support an upper ridge building across the Rockies which will lead
to some concerns on ridge riders by the end of the extended period.
Overall, temperatures will be near normal for mid July with highs in
the 70s/80s, and lows in the 60s, to near 70.|

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

The MCV over western MN seems to have stalled while much of the
precip to the south and east of the circulation has dissipated.
Cloud tops have warmed this morning and scattering of the overcast
will result in building instability to the east of the MCV this
afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop along the east and northern quadrants of the circulation
during the next few hours. The highest concentration appears will
set up from Willmar to the Twin Cities before waning again this
evening over WI.

KMSP...Timing has been delayed a bit from the last TAF, with
storms likely in the vicinity by 21Z. On and off thunderstorms
expected during the evening hours, gradually ending by 02Z as the
circulation passes to the east.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5kt.
Mon...VFR. Winds S 5kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today into this evening.
The severe weather threat is low, but small hail, gusty winds, and
locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. The
highest chances are currently Saturday, and again Tuesday and
Wednesday. The potential for severe weather is low at this time,
but heavy rainfall will be a continued threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
109 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNC073-173-051915-
Lac qui Parle-Yellow Medicine-
109 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the following counties...

Lac qui Parle...Yellow Medicine...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 109 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  urban and small stream flooding in the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarkfield, Boyd, Spring Creek, Hazel Run and Spellman Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4464 9569 4463 9596 4489 9607 4489 9570

BORGHOFF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TORNADO          4 ESE ARLINGTON         44.59N 94.01W
07/05/2019                   SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS BRIEF TOUCHDOWN FOR 30
            SECONDS.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TORNADO          3 N HENDERSON           44.57N 93.90W
07/05/2019                   SIBLEY             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NORTH OF HENDERSON.

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNZ076-060015-
Le Sueur-
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LE SUEUR COUNTY...

At 630 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Le Center, or
23 miles northeast of Mankato, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Le Center, St Henry and St Thomas.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4440 9388 4452 9375 4440 9354 4427 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 322DEG 18KT 4446 9376

JLT