Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Twin Cities, MN

106 
WWUS53 KMPX 052219
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
519 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNC143-052300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-190705T2300Z/
Sibley MN-
519 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY...

At 518 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Arlington, or
21 miles southeast of Hutchinson, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Arlington, Green Isle and New Rome. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
The Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4459 9424 4472 9416 4471 9389 4468 9389
      4468 9385 4449 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 289DEG 17KT 4464 9411 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JLT

095 
WWUS53 KMPX 052225
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNC143-052300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-190705T2300Z/
Sibley MN-
525 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY...

At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Arlington, or
23 miles southeast of Hutchinson, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Arlington, Green Isle and New Rome. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
The Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4459 9424 4472 9416 4471 9389 4468 9389
      4468 9385 4449 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 289DEG 17KT 4463 9407 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JLT

316 
WWUS53 KMPX 052230
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
530 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNC143-052300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-190705T2300Z/
Sibley MN-
530 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY...

At 530 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Arlington, or
24 miles southeast of Hutchinson, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Arlington, Green Isle and New Rome. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
The Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9417 4471 9408 4471 9389 4468 9389
      4468 9385 4449 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 289DEG 17KT 4462 9404 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JLT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

A very slow MCV over western Minnesota has been struggling to
make much eastward progress after the mid morning hours.
Widespread showers associated with it have been keeping western
MN wet for most of the day. The heaviest cores are nearest the low
center, where rainfall rates of a 1/2 to 1 inch/hr are occurring.
The showers will expand eastward slowly late this afternoon.
Cloud tops warmed and some decrease in the overcast late this
morning led to a fair amount of sun today across southern MN and
western WI. Therefore, we should see some cells build into
thunderstorms during the next couple hours. Given the slow
movement of the system as a whole, the cores aren't expected to
move much and if rainfall rates continue to increase with
strengthening convection then flash flooding will become a
concern. The area most at risk for this is currently developing
just south of Willmar, but should expand eastward to the Twin
Cities metro by this evening. Eventually the MCV will weaken this
evening and the loss of daytime instability should allow precip to
gradually weaken after sunset as it heads into WI. PoPs trend
downward after about 8 PM and most of the precip will be done by
midnight.

The forecast for Saturday still remains a bit uncertain with
regard to precip potential. For the last several days, guidance
has not handled these MCVs well at all and there will be another
one approaching from the west for Saturday. This MCV is currently
over southeastern MT. The overall consensus still appears to be a
gradual shearing of this feature for the next 24 hours. With high
pressure building to the north and a bit drier air in place, the
hand is tilted more toward a drier forecast than what has
transpired today. Couldn't remove PoPs tomorrow, but didn't have
much evidence to increase them either. Therefore, maintained a low
chance PoP, mostly across southern MN.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Confidence in the extended period remains medium based on the mean
flow aloft from the models which provided a good scenario on the
best chance of precipitation Tuesday, and Tuesday night. Models have
some timing differences and strength of the short wave moving out of
the Rockies and into the Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest Tuesday,
and into Wednesday. Overall, fairly well wind shear, instability,
and moisture availability indicates a good swath of thunderstorms
will occur sometime Tuesday, and Tuesday night. However, any severe
weather is dependent on timing.

For Sunday, and Monday, an upper ridge will build across the region.
However, at the surface, return flow develops and may allow for
isolated storms during the typical afternoon/early evening time
frame where localized surface moisture convergence is noted.

After the main short wave moves across the region Wednesday, a
couple of days of mostly dry conditions should prevail. Models also
support an upper ridge building across the Rockies which will lead
to some concerns on ridge riders by the end of the extended period.
Overall, temperatures will be near normal for mid July with highs in
the 70s/80s, and lows in the 60s, to near 70.|

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

The MCV over western MN seems to have stalled while much of the
precip to the south and east of the circulation has dissipated.
Cloud tops have warmed this morning and scattering of the overcast
will result in building instability to the east of the MCV this
afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop along the east and northern quadrants of the circulation
during the next few hours. The highest concentration appears will
set up from Willmar to the Twin Cities before waning again this
evening over WI.

KMSP...Timing has been delayed a bit from the last TAF, with
storms likely in the vicinity by 21Z. On and off thunderstorms
expected during the evening hours, gradually ending by 02Z as the
circulation passes to the east.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5kt.
Mon...VFR. Winds S 5kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today into this evening.
The severe weather threat is low, but small hail, gusty winds, and
locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. The
highest chances are currently Saturday, and again Tuesday and
Wednesday. The potential for severe weather is low at this time,
but heavy rainfall will be a continued threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
109 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MNC073-173-051915-
Lac qui Parle-Yellow Medicine-
109 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the following counties...

Lac qui Parle...Yellow Medicine...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 109 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  urban and small stream flooding in the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarkfield, Boyd, Spring Creek, Hazel Run and Spellman Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4464 9569 4463 9596 4489 9607 4489 9570

BORGHOFF