Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

A remnant MCV lasted through the morning and was reinvigorated by
late morning as it encountered an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass. Since, thunderstorms have intensified and expanded across
the area with strong winds produced by the strongest storms.

For the remainder of the evening, this first round of showers and
thunderstorms will continue working through southern MN and
western WI over the next few hours. Despite modest shear profiles
in the area, a very unstable airmass has developed strong cold
pools with the strongest cells, which has lead to strong downbust
winds. New development is already underway across the eastern
Dakotas and far western MN, in response to destabilization along
the surface trough/frontal boundary. So, expect the second round
of showers and thunderstorms to move through mainly from 8PM
through 1AM from west to east, with a few showers lingering across
eastern MN and western WI overnight.

Dry high pressure from the north will move in overnight through
tomorrow morning, meaning dry and pleasant weather will set in for
tomorrow and tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

The longer term trends continue to focus warmer conditions early
in the period with sharp cooling following a trough later in the
weekend and early next week.

Upper level ridging will provide generally warm and dry conditions
to the region, Thursday and lingering through Friday night. Large
area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Great
Lakes allowing for rather pleasant conditions. Temperatures are
expected to range some 5 degrees above normal for a change.

Later Saturday and Sunday, a southern stream trough will lift
northeast ahead a deeper western CONUS trough across the central
Mississippi River valley. This should lift deeper moisture north
ahead of the trough and surface front over the Dakotas. This
front will move east and move through the region Sunday into
Monday. Clouds and shower threat will hold temperatures in the 70s
for Sunday. Northwest flow becomes established once again into
early next week with even cooler temperatures expected, trending
about 5 degrees below normal. The deterministic models draw in
another trough and surface cold front through the region around
Tuesday of next week, along with the chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at
207 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Main issue is thunderstorms moving across central MN. These
storms will continue moving SE roughly at 25 knots, so main
changes to the TAFs were to move up the start time. Also,
increased NW winds in tempo groups. Winds will be generally
southerly, except if a storm is in the vicinity, in which case the
wind will likely be northwesterly or northerly. The front itself
is seeing convective initiation across South Dakota, so another
round of showers and storms is still possible later tonight along
the front.

KMSP...Expect thunder to reach MSP by 4PM but latest trends
indicate diminishing wind threat as outflow boundary has out run
the storms. Still think a switch to northwest winds of around 25
knots is briefly possible shortly before the storms arrive.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051515-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1006 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat, followed by large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Area rivers will continue to run high through the rest of the
week with ongoing flooding expected to persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
435 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 SE PRIOR LAKE         44.69N 93.37W
06/04/2019  M0.88 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
437 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WINTHROP           44.58N 94.32W
06/04/2019                   SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

CCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
438 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             3 NW NEW PRAGUE         44.57N 93.62W
06/04/2019  M1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED REPORTING HAIL BETWEEN PING
            PONG BALL AND GOLF BALL SIZED.

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE BELLE PLAINE      44.62N 93.76W
06/04/2019                   SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS 1 INCH BRANCHES AND A FEW LARGER
            BRANCHES ABOUT 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN IN
            BELLE PLAINE.

&&

BPH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
448 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNC073-042315-
Lac qui Parle-
448 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Lac qui Parle...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause ponding and small stream flooding
  in the area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Madison Airport and Florida Creek Wildlife Management Area.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding and hazardous driving
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9644 4500 9644 4500 9615 4486 9616

CCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
451 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW PRIOR LAKE         44.66N 93.52W
06/04/2019  M64 MPH          SCOTT              MN   STORM CHASER

&&

TDK