Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Surface analysis early this morning shows a wavy warm front from
southern Manitoba province extending SE over northeast MN through
western WI into northern IL. The main low pressure center
associated with the front is straddling the far southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. Its cold front extends SW through MT
into WY. A surface trough is analyzed dropping due south from the
surface low through the Northern and Central Plains. In addition,
a large high pressure system continues to sit over the eastern
CONUS. Aloft, a split flow is maintained with generally zonal flow
over southern Canada and the northern tier states with multiple
shortwave disturbances riding eastward within the flow.

The overall surface low pressure system will shift eastward
through this evening with the cold front expected to drop
southeast across the WFO MPX coverage area late this evening into
the early morning hours. However, until that happens, pronounced
moist southerly flow around the western fringe of the surface will
bring much higher dewpoint air into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley along with unseasonably warm air. Temperatures around
sunrise will start out from the mid 50s to lower 60s then surge to
the upper 70s in western WI to near 90 in western MN. With this
warm air, dewpoints will increase to the mid-to-upper 60s. This
will easily aid in pushing MLCAPEs into the 2500-3500 j/kg range
with little to no capping due to the progressive split flow. So,
given the frontal lift, instability and effective moisture in
place, confidence is fairly high in the occurrence of
thunderstorms today and tonight but the huge question will be the
timing and mode. Cloud cover looks to be fairly stoic today so it
will be difficult to say that strictly convection alone will allow
for thunderstorm development. The kicker looks to come from either
a decaying MCS to the southwest this morning and/or available
shortwaves aloft. CAMs try to pin down a relatively organized
shortwave this afternoon-evening across the area, hence have
highlighted this thinking into the gridded forecast for timing of
thunderstorms. There may be some isolated-scattered clusters of
storms this afternoon-evening but these then look to become more
organized this evening into tonight with the expected shortwave
aloft. With decent unidirectional bulk shear in the 35-45kt range
combined with decent low-mid level lapse rates, the expected
threats remain large hail and damaging winds with any storms that
become well enough organized and deep. Still, because coverage and
timing are complicated and conditional today through tonight, the
Slight Risk is maintained as opposed to any higher risk.

Any and all storms look to push southeast of the area by daybreak
Wednesday morning with the frontal passage, allowing cooler and
drier high pressure to shift into the area behind the departing
front. This will allow for plenty of sunshine on Wednesday with
highs ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s and much less
humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Higher confidence continues for a dry forecast from Wednesday
night through Saturday afternoon as an upper ridge builds, and
holds over the Upper Midwest.

The latest run of the GFS has come closer to the EC/Fv3 on the
upper ridge holding strong over the Upper Midwest for late this
week, and into the first part of the weekend. Thus, keeping the
storm system that had been moving more northeast over the past
several runs, to a more southerly track, affecting the
central/southern Plains late this week. In addition, temperatures
have trended toward higher numbers for Thursday/Friday which has
been difficult with the blended models supporting a cooler
scenario. Temperatures will likely average 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than climatology which is the mid 70s for the first week of June.

For those who want a warmer forecast, please take the opportunity
to get things done late this week, and into the early part of
the weekend. Models have been supporting a significant change in
the forecast for late in the weekend, and especially next week.
This forecast change is related to a strong trough moving inland
over the Pacific Northwest late this week, and over the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest by Sunday/Monday. This trough will break
down the upper ridge, and allow for much cooler air to filter
southward next week. The initial upper ridge will likely hold off
the precipitation associated with the trough until late Saturday
night, and Sunday. This is when we have the next chance of
measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

VFR conditions to start but conditions are expected to deteriorate
this afternoon-evening with the development of scattered
convection. Have tried to highlight the best timing of the
convection into all TAF sites in advance of the cold front this
evening. Chances have diminished for isolated convection this
morning into early afternoon so have opted to keep that period
dry. Though the TEMPOs show the best timing, the VCTS usage shows
some variance that could occur, so later TAF issuances can resolve
those differences. At this point, have brought visibilities down
to MVFR while keeping ceilings as VFR, but IFR conditions could
easily be realized should a storm go directly over a terminal.
Conditions will improve overnight through tomorrow, but there is a
small chance that MVFR ceilings are possible in the wake of the
front around daybreak Wednesday morning.

KMSP...VFR conditions to start and will last through mid-
afternoon. Will look for TSRA to move near/across MSP during the
latter portion of the evening push but there is some potential
convection could impact MSP a bit earlier and convection could
have conditions worse than MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051515-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1006 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat, followed by large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Area rivers will continue to run high through the rest of the
week with ongoing flooding expected to persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ055-056-041830-
Chippewa-Swift-
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 100 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Milan, or 14
miles north of Montevideo, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Hagen, Big Bend City and Gluek.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4521 9595 4517 9544 4495 9544 4505 9591
      4509 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 273DEG 38KT 4514 9582

ETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             MONTEVIDEO              44.95N 95.72W
06/04/2019  M0.75 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 WSW LAKE HENRY        45.45N 94.84W
06/04/2019  M0.25 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             MONTEVIDEO              44.94N 95.73W
06/04/2019  M1.25 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   PUBLIC

            WITH PHOTO ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HUTCHINSON        44.87N 94.38W
06/04/2019  M59 MPH          MCLEOD             MN   AWOS

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNE BUFFALO LAKE      44.84N 94.57W
06/04/2019                   RENVILLE           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GRAIN BINS DOWN, POWER LINES DOWN.

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW HUTCHINSON         44.86N 94.41W
06/04/2019                   MCLEOD             MN   STORM CHASER

            POWER LINES DOWN ALL IN ONE DIRECTION.

&&