Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Twin Cities, MN

291 
WWUS53 KMPX 242310
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

MNC013-015-165-242345-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-190924T2345Z/
Brown MN-Blue Earth MN-Watonwan MN-
610 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND WATONWAN
COUNTIES...

At 610 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Courtland to Hanska to near Butterfield, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
St. James, Lake Crystal, Madelia, Courtland, Butterfield, Hanska,
Judson, Darfur, Odin, La Salle, Sveadahl and St James Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9486 4406 9486 4427 9437 4426 9435
      4421 9424 4422 9422 4420 9422 4419 9414
      4412 9401 4385 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 249DEG 28KT 4422 9431 4413 9451 4402 9479 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BORGHOFF

508 
WWUS53 KMPX 242325
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

MNC013-015-165-242345-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-190924T2345Z/
Brown MN-Blue Earth MN-Watonwan MN-
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND NORTHEASTERN
WATONWAN COUNTIES...

At 624 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Nicollet to near Courtland to near St. James,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
St. James, Lake Crystal, Madelia, Courtland, Hanska, Judson, La
Salle, Grogan, St James Airport and Searles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 4401 9467 4413 9467 4427 9437 4426 9435
      4421 9424 4422 9422 4420 9422 4419 9414
      4412 9401 4393 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 249DEG 28KT 4426 9414 4418 9434 4406 9462 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BORGHOFF

273 
WWUS53 KMPX 242343
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

MNC013-015-165-242353-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-190924T2345Z/
Brown MN-Blue Earth MN-Watonwan MN-
643 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...
NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND NORTHEASTERN WATONWAN COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south
central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4401 9467 4413 9467 4427 9437 4426 9435
      4421 9424 4422 9422 4420 9422 4419 9414
      4412 9401 4393 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 252DEG 30KT 4431 9393 4423 9413 4411 9441 

$$

BORGHOFF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Timing of thunderstorm development is the main forecast concern late
this afternoon/evening. Other concerns is a chance of showers in
central Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

Cumulus field, and depth of higher boundary layer moisture, remains
in Iowa this afternoon. There is a steady increase in the cumulus
field moving northeast across northern Iowa since noon. Secondly, a
strong short wave was evident across the Northern Plains this
afternoon. Once this short wave, and associated frontal boundary,
moves across southern Minnesota, the deeper moisture from Iowa will
interact with it, and cause storms to develop. Based on several of
the CAMs, initiation is around 4-6 pm from the Twin Cities,
southwest to around Fairmont. Ample wind shear increasing along the
short wave, and MLCAPEs around 2000 J/kg, will lead to some severe
storms. Lapse rates are impressive with values of 7.5 to 8 C/km
across southern Minnesota. The combination of wind shear,
instability, and lapse rates, all indicate a good correlation of
large hail. Once the front moves through the region, there remains
ample moisture behind it. As with synoptic scale systems, weak short
waves rotating around them, and cold air aloft, instability showers
will be possible, especially in central Minnesota Wednesday
afternoon which will be closer to the upper low.

Not too many changes past Wednesday afternoon, with a cool Wednesday
night in store. Temperatures by Thursday morning will be in the 40s,
with 30s possible in the typical low spots of Minnesota, and western
Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

The long term period will be rather unsettled with a bit of a
roller coaster in temperature swings this period, given warm vs
cold sector placement of a couple potential systems developing.

By Thursday, conditions will remain dry but the feature to watch
will be developing to our northwest. A large trough over Canada
will influence much of North America with cyclonic flow aloft. A
coupled jet structure will help develop a potent shortwave and
surface low Thursday night across North Dakota, but it appears it
will translate eastward with most of the forcing remaining across
central MN and northward. Still, we could see some precip develop
along the surface front overnight into Friday morning, so stuck
with chance pops across the area during that period as the surface
low moves east across northern MN toward Lake Superior.

Cooler air will then infiltrate from the north with highs both
Friday and Saturday being held in the low 60s, and dew points in
the comfortable range in the 40s. With surface high pressure
building in Saturday morning, could see highs dip into the upper
30s and lower 40s.

A deeply amplified trough will dig across the western CONUS Sat
night into Sunday, enhancing southerly flow locally and lifting
the front through our area. Temperatures rising into the 70s
across southern MN and dew points into the 60s are expected while
a surface low develops across eastern Wyoming. With our area still
in the warm sector Monday, could make a run at 80 degrees and
thunderstorms are certainly possible in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary especially.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

TAFs are on track with a small window of TSRA along and ahead of a
cold front this afternoon. This front will be near a
KRNH/KMSP/KMKT by 21-22z with TSRA developing along it. Once
storms develop, a better time frame will be updated in the TAFs
with hail/wind added if necessary. By 3z, most of MPX TAF sites
will be clear of TSRA with winds shifting to the west. Gusty west
winds will develop Wednesday morning.

KMSP...

TSRA are on track around 22-23z, with a window of 1/2 to an hr of
heavy rainfall, and perhaps MVFR cigs/vsbys. By 01z, most of the
activity will be well east of the Twin Cities with west winds of
around 8 kts. Gusty winds will return Wednesday from the west.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Thu...Mainly VFR. Chance evening MVFR/SHRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR/SHRA likely, possible TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts bcmg NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251715-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely along a cold front after 3 pm. There is
an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across south-central and
southeastern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin.
Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are all possible
with these storms this afternoon, and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening into Friday, and then
again over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon,
especially after 3 pm.