Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Twin Cities, MN

396 
WWUS53 KMPX 180118
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
818 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

MNC073-180126-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-190818T0130Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-
818 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning for north central 
Lac Qui Parle county has weakened. Therefore, the Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning for north central Lac Qui Parle county has been 
cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4525 9606 4530 9595 4517 9595 4515 9597
      4515 9604 4517 9608 4517 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 285DEG 20KT 4521 9598 

$$

MNC151-180130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-190818T0130Z/
Swift MN-
818 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SWIFT COUNTY...

At 816 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Appleton, or 22
miles northwest of Montevideo, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton and Appleton Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
The Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9606 4530 9595 4517 9595 4515 9597
      4515 9604 4517 9608 4517 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 285DEG 20KT 4521 9598 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JPC

764 
WWUS53 KMPX 180129
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
829 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

MNC151-180138-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-190818T0130Z/
Swift MN-
829 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SWIFT COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4525 9606 4530 9595 4517 9595 4515 9597
      4515 9604 4517 9608 4517 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 280DEG 18KT 4520 9590 

$$

JPC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
607 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Confidence is high that we will see a line of thunderstorms work
across southern MN and western WI tonight. These storms are
expected to move into western MN around 9/10pm tonight. When
they get to the state, the combination of its parent mid level
wave taking on a negative tilt and a strong push of dry air from
the west will help accelerate these storms across the area, with
30-40 kt storm motions likely. Though we do see favorable severe
parameters, with muCAPE in excess of 2k j/kg in southern MN and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts, the time of day will be a
limiting factor in the severe threat. Current expectations is that
this will be a primarily "SPS event", with plenty of wind gusts
of 40-50mph and some hail up to penny size. However, with things
like cell mergers, temporary bowing segments, and other mesoscale
factors, we'll likely see a few storms briefly pulse up into
severe levels, but a widespread significant severe weather event
is not expected and the Day 1 SPC convective outlook of a slight
risk south of I-94 in MN adequately covers our severe potential
tonight.

Behind this line of storms, we'll actually see some cold
advection, which means will likely have a band of stratocu in
its wake that will clear out from west to east Sunday morning,
leaving behind a beautiful Sunday afternoon with temperatures in
the 70s and low humidity. The dry air we see coming in on Sunday
will have two impacts for Sunday night. With high pressure moving
overhead, we'll see light winds and clear skies, so excellent
radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop
into the 50s Monday morning, with some pockets getting into the
upper 40s as well. That dry air coming in on Sunday also looks to
limit the fog potential Monday morning, with just some patchy fog
expected in western WI near bodies of water and in river valleys,
so nothing widespread.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

High pressure resides over the region Monday, with dry conditions
and warmer temperatures expected as southerly flow picks up on
the backside of the high. A cold front drops south through the
Upper Midwest overnight Monday night into Tuesday, but the chances
widespread precipitation along the front look to be decreasing as
the forcing from the upper-level low remains well to our north,
and models have trended much weaker with a shortwave over southern
Minnesota/Iowa. Some isolated to scattered activity along the
front still looks possible but precipitation amounts should be
light, and I would not be surprised to see most of the CWA remain
dry.

Cool Canadian high pressure moves in behind this front, with dry
conditions and below-normal temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday into saturday as
the high settles over the eastern US and southerly flow picks up
on the back side. The GFS and ECMWF have both trended warmer and
more humid Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and the GEFS/EPS
ensemble means show this potential as well. However, they are both
the two warmest outliers out of the synoptic models so will stay
close to the blended guidance until this tend becomes more
established. Precipitation chances increase as well as the jet
stream oscillates over the Upper Midwest, but confidence in timing
of any jetstreak/shortwaves remains low so will keep PoPs low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

High confidence on probability of convection thru all TAF sites,
just a matter of timing. Have nearly no change in timing compared
to 18z set. Already into northwest MN and will move into central
MN by 02z then continue to steadily progress eastward thru the
evening and early morning hours. IFR conditions likely with the
thunderstorms themselves. Behind the storms, a period of MVFR-to-
IFR ceilings likely around and thru daybreak then progressive
clearing during the day tomorrow. Winds will shift from southerly
this evening to NW tomorrow with some gustiness likely, especially
during thunderstorms.

KMSP...Still looking for best timing to be 07z-10z (so an
overnight event with low traffic numbers). MVFR ceilings,
including under 1700ft, likely during the Sunday morning push then
gradual improvement thru the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind N 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
229 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
229 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will move into western Minnesota this evening,
tracking into western Wisconsin late tonight. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with damaging wind and torrential
rainfall being the primary threats. The risk for severe weather
will be greatest south of I-94 in Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a small chance for thunderstorms Monday night into
Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
704 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

MNZ047-055-180100-
Stevens-Swift-
704 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT STEVENS AND WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 703 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Charlesville to Big Stone City.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Morris, Appleton, Chokio, Donnelly, Lake Hattie, Lake Oliver,
Artichoke Lake, Fish Lake, Alberta, Appleton Airport and Morris
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 23.
 U.S. Highway 59 near mile marker 136, and between mile markers 173
and 177.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4576 9625 4576 9596 4575 9586 4515 9602
      4518 9610 4524 9610 4524 9612 4541 9612
      4541 9622 4542 9625 4573 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 274DEG 19KT 4590 9621 4528 9648

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

MNZ054-180100-
Lac Qui Parle-
715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Clinton to near
Kranzburg. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bellingham, Marietta, Nassau and Big Stone National Wildlife Refuge.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 near mile marker 1.
 U.S. Highway 75 between mile markers 118 and 127.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4526 9645 4527 9642 4525 9640 4526 9638
      4525 9629 4522 9627 4522 9622 4521 9621
      4489 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 263DEG 20KT 4542 9631 4485 9700

JPC