Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front emanating
from a surface low over Hudson Bay extending southwest through
northeast MN into southwestern MN. A quasi-stationary surface
front which has remained generally in place from the central
Plains through the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio
Valley persists, residing nearly atop the MN/IA border. A low
pressure center is analyzed along it over the small portion of the
SD border with IA. Aloft, relative zonal flow is in place from the
northern Rockies to the Great Lakes while moisture surges into the
region from the Baja Cali region, on the western fringes of the
flattened upper level ridge. Also, an upper level low is rotating
over Hudson Bay, spinning a few shortwave trough axes on its
southern periphery.

With the upper level low expected to remain with a zonal E-W
trajectory through tomorrow, the slowly-progressing cold front
will push across MN/WI this morning. However, the E-W oriented
surface front to the south will remain in place. With this
continued low-level focus in place while moisture continues to
surge in from the southwest along with kicker shortwaves aloft
around the large rotating low, chances are high for continued
showers and thunderstorms through early Tuesday morning. KMPX
radar this morning continues to show areas of rain and
thunderstorms, some of which are producing heavy rain, and these
areas will slowly move east through this morning. Given rainfall
amounts of 2-4" already across much of southern MN, it will not
take much to exceed FFG, especially with PWATs still in the
1.8"-2.0" range. As such, will maintain a Flash Flood Watch over
much of southern MN through midday. Rainfall is expected to taper
off to more widely scattered showers this afternoon. However,
CAMs continue to show another round of rain and thunderstorms,
potentially taking on the form of another well-organized MCS this
evening (similar to what was experienced late Sunday evening).
Therefore, the potential continues for another round of severe
weather in southern MN with damaging winds and large hail. SPC
continues to highlight southern MN in a Slight Risk and this is
certainly reasonable for this evening.

The low pressure center analyzed along the stalled front will
slowly shift ESE into northwest Iowa by Tuesday evening, which
will allow precipitation chances to gradually diminish from late
tonight through the day tomorrow. While heavy rain cannot be ruled
out for tomorrow in an isolated fashion, severe weather chances
become nil tomorrow with the departure of the surface low and much
weaker upper level support.

As for temperatures, the frontal and precip complications for
today will mean rather extensive cloud cover throughout the day
today so highs will run on the cooler side. Look for max temps in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. With more sporadic precip chances tomorrow
along with less frontal influence, more breaks in the overcast can
be expected. As such, highs will run a little warmer over, in the
low-mid 80s across the WFO MPX coverage area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

The idea of having scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
rest of the week and the upcoming weekend has not changed and is
reflected in the latest forecast.

The stalled surface front to the south will generally remain in
place through at least Thursday while another cold front looks to
push through the MN/WI region Wednesday-Thursday. This will keep
the highly moist atmosphere in place along with the low-level
focus for additional showers/thunderstorms over southern MN into
western WI. While severe chances are low, they cannot be ruled out
altogether as the highly unstable atmosphere will be susceptible
to nearly no capping and any appreciable impulse aloft would be
capable of producing isolated strong/severe storms. In addition,
the multiple moisture sources of the Pacific plus Baja regions
will still have pathways to bring ample moisture into the region
for decent rainfall.

By late week, with the passage of the cold front, weak high
pressure will move into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region
for the end of the week into the weekend. This will help reduce
precipitation chances to the 20/30 percent range along with
bringing in a bit cooler/drier airmass into the region. Will look
for highs to drop to the mid 80s to lower 80s for the end of the
week and the weekend. Precipitation chances can't be eliminated
altogether due to several disturbances aloft which look to pass
through the region but widespread precipitation and severe weather
is not expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Wide swath of mainly VFR showers moving across the area with
limited TS/CB. This swath looks to move across the area and
diminish late morning into early afternoon. Convective models then
appear to have a consensus that another organized thunderstorm
threat, potentially another MCS, looks to develop this evening in
west-central MN then drive ESE across the area. Have indicated as
such via late afternoon to evening TEMPO groups. Uncertainty in
the strength/direction of winds generally prevents inclusion in a
TEMPO but a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is maintained over
southern MN into tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in
such thunderstorms.

KMSP...Winds are mostly disturbed due to ongoing shower activity
and is likely to settle back to NE by midday from their currently
westerly direction. Still could see highly amplified winds this
evening with another organized thunderstorm cluster. Thunderstorms
then may well persist into much of the evening and overnight hours
before waning prior to daybreak Tuesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue-Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds LGT and VRB.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for WIZ024-026.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MNZ054-056-064>070-
     073>078-083>085-093.

&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
020900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
358 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms south of a line
from Redwood Falls to the Twin Cities to Eau Claire, with a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms north of the Slight Risk
area to a line from Montevideo to Saint Cloud to Rice Lake. The
main hazards are damaging winds and large hail.

In addition, some thunderstorms may produce heavy rain which could
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periods of thunderstorms are expected for much of next week. The
potential for severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LESTER PRAIRIE          44.88N 94.04W
06/30/2019                   MCLEOD             MN   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
143 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENCOE                 44.77N 94.15W
06/30/2019                   MCLEOD             MN   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND VEHICLES.
            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARLINGTON               44.61N 94.08W
06/30/2019                   SIBLEY             MN   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
210 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

MNC127-129-173-011000-
Redwood-Yellow Medicine-Renville-
210 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Redwood...Yellow Medicine...Renville...

* Until 500 AM CDT.

* At 206 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain from
  thunderstorms training over the same area. Around an inch of rain
  has fallen from these storms in the last hour, in addition to the
  3-4 inches of rainfall that has already fallen earlier this
  afternoon/evening across portions of this area. Areas of urban and
  small stream flooding are expected through sunrise, especially
  in low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Redwood Falls, Canby, Fairfax, Hector, Bird Island, Franklin, Wood
  Lake, Morton, Hanley Falls, Echo, Porter and Belview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4475 9645 4478 9644 4475 9463 4446 9463
      4446 9480 4449 9484 4446 9487 4449 9559
      4463 9563 4463 9645

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
355 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

MNZ065>067-069-074>076-083-010945-
Le Sueur-Brown-Blue Earth-McLeod-Sibley-Renville-Scott-Nicollet-
355 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LE SUEUR...SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD...BROWN...NORTHERN BLUE
EARTH...SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE AND NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 353 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Ulm, moving
east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mankato, New Ulm, North Mankato, St. Peter, Belle Plaine, Le Sueur,
Sleepy Eye, Lake Crystal, Eagle Lake, Gaylord, Arlington and
Winthrop.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 78 and 140.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 45 and 84.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4412 9503 4428 9492 4428 9486 4437 9487
      4472 9463 4467 9377 4464 9376 4409 9385
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 279DEG 39KT 4436 9442

ETA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
656 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

MNC097-153-011400-
Todd-Morrison-
656 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Todd...Morrison...

* Until 900 AM CDT.

* At 656 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain from
  thunderstorms over the advisory area. 1 to 3 inches of rain has
  fallen in the last two hours, which may result in areas of urban
  and small stream flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Little Falls, Long Prairie, Randall, Camp Ripley, Lake Osakis,
  Round Prairie, Harding and Camp Ripley Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4616 9405 4610 9404 4583 9513 4593 9514
      4616 9433

ETA