Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Mobile, AL

005 
WWUS54 KMOB 182220
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

ALC023-MSC153-182230-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190418T2230Z/
Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
520 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR CHOCTAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 520 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kinterbish to 7 miles southwest of Clara, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Butler, Clara, Lisman, Pennington, Gilbertown and Toxey. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT
for southwestern Alabama.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3219 8801 3170 8843 3170 8846
      3166 8846 3144 8865 3143 8894 3163 8894
      3185 8865 3190 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 267DEG 40KT 3231 8825 3153 8880 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
422 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Stay weather aware tonight.
Upper air analysis shows a lead mid to upper level impulse of
energy ejecting northeast over the upper TX coast and up across
Louisiana. This has created an area of high level diffluence
supporting a continued enhancement of convection and concentrated
lightning upstream. Satellite imagery shows a MCS spreading
eastward across the Lower MS Delta to off the LA coast. The pre-
storm environment will continue to show destabilization thru the
course of the day into the evening with the slow eastward
migration of a well defined 1000-850 mb theta-e moisture axis and
warm sector. At same time, the low level wind profiles strengthen
markedly with 850mb south to southwest flow increasing to 50 to
60 kts between late afternoon and continuing east tonight. 0-6km
Bulk Shear values to increase to as high as ~60 knots favoring an
increased severe weather potential. An assessment of wet bulb zero
heights are fairly high which would mitigate occurrence of large
hail. Thus, the highest confidence of threats continue to be
concentrated on damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
as higher momentum air mixes to the surface in rear flank
downdrafts with the passage of any bowing convective line
segments. The latest probabilities for damaging winds from the
storm prediction center is a healthy 45% and focused over interior
southeast MS and interior southwest AL tonight. A 30% probability
for damaging winds is outlooked elsewhere. There is also a risk
for tornadoes as these appear to be more probable in any discrete
cells that form out ahead of the main line. A few strong tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. No changes made to Day 1 severe weather
threat which is maintained at enhanced area-wide. The high
resolution convection allowing models (CAM's) still show some
divergence on timing and evolution of convective mode.
Initializing convective trends upstream with the CAMs suggest lead
area of storms moving in over southeast MS by the close of the
afternoon with some momentary weakening. By tonight a more
organized area of storms is progged to move across with better
dynamics in place. Widespread rainfall amounts between one to two
inches are favored, with higher amounts possible as the passage of
the strongest storms will likely contain heavy rain rates causing
potential of flooding in poorly drained lower lying and urban
areas. A limited flooding threat is maintained.

Wind advisory continues area-wide through late tonight. High risk
of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents and high surf
continues along the beaches.

Friday, A frontal boundary will be east of the area while axis of
large upper low pivots eastward over the TN River Valley. Plenty
of clouds are forecast to wrap around this feature and remain in
place thru the day. With northwest flow and clouds, daytime highs
lower. Coolest numbers are expected over the interior where highs
look to hover in the lower 60s. A small PoP continues on Friday
with upper system close by. /10

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Skies will
gradually clear Friday night as the upper low moves to the north
and east. A northwest flow aloft will prevail through the weekend
with a cooler and drier airmass moving into the area through
Sunday night. /13

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Temperatures will modify
back into the upper 70s and low 80s Monday into Tuesday as upper
ridging builds over the area. Moisture levels begin to increase on
Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the area. This
will bring increasing chances of rain to the area late in the
period. /13

&&

.MARINE...Main impacts over the coastal waters in the near term
will be the passage of strong to locally severe storms tonight with
perhaps a few tornadoes ahead of an eastward moving cold front.
Front makes passage late tonight and brings a moderate to strong
west to northwest flow. Frequent wind gusts to gale force likely
thru late tonight over the open Gulf waters. A gale warning is now
in place for this. Elsewhere, small craft advisories look to hold in
place for some time, with criteria now looking to be met well into
Saturday. Marine conditions improve by late in the weekend into the
first of next week as surface high pressure moves east over the
area. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  66  46  71  47  76  52  79 / 100  30  20   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   59  67  50  70  51  73  56  77 /  90  30  20   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  67  52  69  53  72  58  75 / 100  30  20   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   57  64  44  69  44  79  50  82 / 100  30  20   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  52  62  43  68  43  77  48  81 / 100  30  20   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      55  61  44  68  44  78  50  82 / 100  30  20   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   58  68  45  70  43  77  49  81 / 100  30  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 11 PM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-192000-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT
FRIDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Wind Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

Strong to severe storms likely to bring impacts through tonight. Main
threats will be damaging winds along with a few tornadoes. A few
tornadoes could be strong. Locally heavy rain may lead to some
instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-192000-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong to severe storms likely to bring impacts through tonight. Main
threats will be damaging winds along with a few tornadoes. A few
tornadoes could be strong. Locally heavy rain may lead to some
instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-192000-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 83 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

in addition to severe storms tonight, locally heavy rain may lead to
some instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

GMZ630>634-636-192000-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Strong to severe storms likely to bring impacts through tonight. Main
threats will be damaging winds along with a few tornadoes. Locally
heavy rain likely to reduce visibility to below a mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ650-655-670-675-192000-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.
   Gale Warning.

Strong to severe storms likely to bring impacts through tonight. Main
threats will be damaging winds along with a few tornadoes. Locally
heavy rain likely to reduce visibility to below a mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ635-192000-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Strong to severe storms likely to bring impacts through tonight. Main
threats will be damaging winds along with a few tornadoes. Locally
heavy rain likely to reduce visibility to below a mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.