Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Mobile, AL

250 
WGUS64 KMOB 061806
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
106 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

ALZ261>266-FLZ201>206-070215-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190607T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, 
Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, 
Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, 
Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, 
Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, 
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, 
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
106 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile Central, Mobile 
  Coastal, and Mobile Inland. In northwest Florida, Escambia 
  Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, 
  Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through Friday morning

* Deep tropical moisture will spread along a boundary that will
  extend across coastal portions of southwest Alabama and the
  western Florida panhandle through tonight. Several rounds of
  showers and thunderstorms will be possible, which could result
  in an additional 3 to locally 6 inches of rainfall within a
  relatively short period of time. Last night, 3 to locally 6
  inches of rainfall previously fell over portions of the watch
  area. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  today and tonight. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result 
  in flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MSZ078-079-070000-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190607T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stone-George-
Including the cities of Wiggins and Lucedale
106 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Mississippi, including the following 
  areas, George and Stone. 

* Until 7 PM CDT this evening

* Deep tropical moisture will spread along a boundary that will
  extend across southeast Mississippi through late this afternoon.
  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
  which could result in 2 to 4 inches of rain within a relatively
  short period of time. This will be in addition to 2 to locally 4
  inches of rainfall that fell across this portion of the watch
  area. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  today. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result in flooded 
  roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

628 
WGUS64 KMOB 070008
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
708 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019


MSZ078-079-070115-
/O.EXP.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190607T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stone-George-
Including the cities of Wiggins and Lucedale
708 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Mississippi has
expired.

$$

ALZ261>266-FLZ201>206-070815-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190607T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, 
Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, 
Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, 
Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, 
Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, 
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, 
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
708 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile Central, Mobile 
  Coastal, and Mobile Inland. In northwest Florida, Escambia 
  Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, 
  Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Until 7 AM CDT Friday

* Deep tropical moisture will spread along a boundary that will 
  extend across coastal portions of southwest Alabama and the 
  western Florida panhandle through tonight. Several rounds of 
  showers and thunderstorms will be possible, which could result 
  in an additional 3 to locally 6 inches of rainfall within a 
  relatively short period of time. Last night, 3 to locally 6 
  inches of rainfall previously fell over portions of the watch 
  area. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  today and tonight. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result 
  in flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

628 
WGUS64 KMOB 070855
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
355 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

ALZ261-262-071000-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190607T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-
Including the cities of Citronelle, Saraland, and Stockton
355 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southwest Alabama has been
cancelled. 

$$

ALZ263>266-FLZ201>206-071700-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
355 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa 
  Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa 
  Inland. 

* Through Sunday evening

* A very moist airmass will continue to spread across coastal
  portions of southwest Alabama and much of the western Florida
  panhandle ahead of an upper level system that will slowly
  approach the area through the weekend. Several rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast today
  through Sunday, which could result in an additional 3 to 6
  inches of rainfall with localized totals over 8 inches through
  early Sunday evening. Heavy rains have previously fallen over
  portions of the watch area, and additional heavy rainfall within
  a short period of time may result in localized flash flooding. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area
  through Sunday. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result in 
  flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

662 
WGUS64 KMOB 071631
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

ALZ263>266-FLZ201>206-080045-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
1131 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa 
  Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa 
  Inland. 

* Through Sunday evening

* A very moist airmass remains in place over the central Gulf
  coast through the weekend with several rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms expected to move over the watch area. An
  additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is possible with localized
  totals over 8 inches through early Sunday evening. Heavy rains
  have previously fallen over portions of the watch area and 
  additional heavy rainfall within a short period of time may 
  result in localized flash flooding. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  through Sunday. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result in 
  flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

307 
WGUS64 KMOB 072354
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019


ALZ263>266-FLZ201>206-080800-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa 
  Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa 
  Inland. 

* Through Sunday evening

* A very moist airmass remains in place over the central Gulf 
  coast through the weekend with several rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms expected to move over the watch area. An 
  additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is possible with 
  localized totals over 8 inches through early Sunday evening. 
  Heavy rains have previously fallen over portions of the watch 
  area and additional heavy rainfall within a short period of 
  time may result in localized flash flooding. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  through Sunday. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result in 
  flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

282 
WGUS64 KMOB 080903
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

ALZ263>266-FLZ201>206-081700-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
403 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa 
  Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa 
  Inland. 

* Through Sunday evening

* A very moist airmass remains in place over the central Gulf
  coast through the weekend with several rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms expected to move over the watch area. An
  additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is possible with localized
  totals over 6 inches through early Sunday evening. Heavy rains 
  have previously fallen over portions of the watch area and 
  additional heavy rainfall within a short period of time may 
  result in localized flash flooding. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  through Sunday. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result in 
  flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

831 
WGUS64 KMOB 081651
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

ALZ263>266-FLZ201>206-090100-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, including 
  the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa 
  Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa 
  Inland. 

* Through Sunday evening

* A very moist airmass remains in place over the central Gulf
  coast through the weekend with several rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms expected to move over the watch area. An
  additional 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible with localized
  totals near 5 inches through early Sunday evening. Heavy rains 
  have previously fallen over portions of the watch area and 
  additional heavy rainfall within a short period of time may 
  result in localized flash flooding. 

* Localized flash flooding of urban areas and along small creeks 
  and streams will be possible in the Flash Flood Watch area 
  through Sunday. Rapid ponding of water could quickly result in 
  flooded roadways in some areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

829 
WGUS64 KMOB 081941
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
241 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

ALZ263>266-FLZ201>206-082045-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
241 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida has been cancelled. 

Although a few storms have the potential of producing locally
heavy downpours, the threat for a larger areal extent of prolonged
heavy rain has ended.  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1211 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR to MVFR visibility conditions will generally
prevail through 06.15z as mostly mid/high level clouds remain
over the area along with periods of light rain. Another round of
moderate rain and embedded showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
to the west will gradually spread east across the area late
tonight through Thursday, with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels.
IFR to MVFR visibilities due to rain are also likely late tonight
through Thursday. Future forecast will be refined to better
account for the timing of this precipitation. Light and variable
to calm winds overnight will increase from the south to southeast
to near 15 knots on Thursday. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A pattern change will continue
over our forecast area through the near term period. The ridging
will continue to break down through tonight, with mid and upper
level flow gradually becoming more west-southwesterly over the area.
This will allow the deeper tropical moisture currently in place to
the west of our forecast area to stream toward and across our region
through Thursday, with associated precipitable water values that
have already increased to 2.00 to 2.10 inches across much of the
area forecast to continue to moisten upwards to near 2.30 inches by
late Thursday. Synoptic scale lift associated with increased
shortwave activity in the mid/upper flow over our area will result
in a greater coverage of rain and embedded heavier showers and even
a few thunderstorms tonight and Thursday. By later tonight and
Thursday, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and a heavy
rainfall threat will then continue into the weekend.

So far this afternoon rainfall has been generally light across the
area, with a few localized heavier showers producing just a little
over 1 inch. Expect that the potential for more widespread heavier
rainfall will ramp up later tonight and into Thursday, with 2-3
inches of rainfall possible across some areas, mainly the coastal
sections of AL and the extreme western FL panhandle by the end of
the day Thursday. Given how dry the past couple of weeks have been,
we should be looking at the potential for only isolated flash
flooding on Thursday. We have coordinated with WPC regarding the Day
2 (Thursday) Excessive Rainfall outlook and because of the more
isolated flash flood potential, will keep a SLGT Risk over our
area for now. The threat for heavy rainfall will continue and even
increase somewhat during the short term period however, and a
Flash Flood Watch will likely be required by Friday as the
Thursday rainfall sufficiently saturates the ground.

Cooler temps are expected due to the increased rain and cloud cover,
with lows ranging from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at
the coast. Highs on Thursday ranging from the lower 80s over
all interior areas and the mid 80s right along the coast. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...An upper
system that has moved over the Plains meanders slowly east to over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley and stalls, into a building upper
ridge over the eastern Conus. Ahead of this system, deep moisture
from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to stream west-
northwest over the area through Saturday. Periods of rain with
embedded thunderstorms are expected into Saturday, with an eastward
shift late Saturday night into Sunday as this system's associated
surface low meanders southeast to over the forecast area. Models
soundings show sufficient elevated instability for thunderstorms to
mix in with the rain, that when combined with weaker steering winds
(generally less than 20kts), and a very moist airmass (Precip H2O
around 2" or above), higher rain accumulations are likely. After
crunching the numbers, best accumulations into Sunday are expected
to be over the southern third of the forecast area. Even with this
area currently seeing abnormally dry conditions according the last
Drought Monitor statement, by Saturday, the accumulated rain should
be sufficient for flooding issues closer to the coast. For
Thursday night through Sunday, the forecast calls for rainfall
amounts totaling 5.5"-6" along the coast to 3"-3.5" north of
Highway 84

The abundant rain and increased cloud cover will help to temper
temperatures from previous days, with daytime highs around to a bit
below seasonal norms (low to mid 80s expected), with overnight  lows
remaining at or above seasonal (upper 60s to low 70s inland, mid 70s
along the coast).
/16

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The upper low begins to move
slowly off to the east, shifting the rain eastward and bringing
drier northerly flow to the forecast area by Wednesday as the
surface low moves east of the area. Highs remain around seasonal
into Wednesday, with cloud cover from the upper system limiting
incoming heating. Lows creep downward through the Long Term as drier
and cooler air filters south over the forecast area. Lows around 70
expected Sunday night, low 60s north of highway 84 to upper 60s
close to the coast.
/16

MARINE...Southerly winds will increase slightly, along with building
seas through the remainder of the week in response to an approaching
low pressure system. Rain chances will also continue to increase
tonight through the weekend as deeper moisture spreads across the
region. A few storms could produce heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning and gusty winds at times over the next few days. Hazardous
conditions for small craft will be possible beginning late Thursday
and continuing through much of the weekend as winds approach
Exercise Caution levels (15 to 20 knots), especially over the Gulf
waters. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061130-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area today
and tonight. A few storms could produce locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and brief strong and gusty winds.

A MODERATE risk of rip currents returns along the beaches of
Alabama and the northwest Florida panhandle starting tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A MODERATE risk of rip currents on Thursday increases to a HIGH
risk Friday through Saturday night for the coastal Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches. The HIGH risk could be extended into
the weekend.

Showers and storms will become numerous to widespread in coverage
Thursday through the weekend. Several rounds of heavy rainfall
will be possible Thursday through Sunday, and storm total
rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches with locally higher totals will
bring an elevated threat of flooding across portions of southeast
Mississippi, far southwest Alabama and parts of the western
Florida panhandle through the weekend. There will be a more
limited threat of flooding through the weekend further inland
across the rest of the area where rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches are currently forecast. A few of the stronger storms will
also be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is currently
not expected.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-061130-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop over the
marine area today and tonight. A few of the stronger storms will
be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Persistent moderate to strong onshore flow develops Thursday
night, potentially creating periods of hazardous boating
conditions for small craft through Saturday.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday through Sunday. A few storms may become strong, capable
of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.