Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.UPDATE...Threat of flash flooding continues with very efficient
rain producing showers and storms expected. Will have itchy
trigger finger for issuing Flash Flood Warnings as many areas
have received between 1 and 3 inches earlier today with locally
higher amounts and heavy precipitation likely to repeatedly affect
the same area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the area next several hours increasing flooding
concerns. Severe thunderstorms moving toward southwest WI from
eastern IA may hang on and producing a few larger hail and wind
reports into south central WI. Can not rule out an isolated
tornado.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous this evening with mostly MVFR and lower ceilings and
occasional visibilities in precipitation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 213 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019)

DISCUSSION...

Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday night -
Confidence...Medium
Flash Flood Watch still looks good. We are seeing a break in the
activity though the pattern remains conducive for repeated rains
across the area. The front is a slow mover and precipitable water
values are impressively high, especially for this time of year.
MLCAPE axis is set up across east central IA into northern IL
however still plenty of MUCAPE across the area. Another mid level
shortwave and increasing frontogenetical forcing will lead to more
activity evolving into this evening. The exiting precip this
afternoon with a break and renewed activity later played out by
latest HRRR. Could see a little break in things with high pressure
briefly nudging in for a time on wednesday. However more upstream
energy will induce cyclogenesis and bring another low pressure
system to the southeast of the area Wednesday night. There is some
model disparity on qpf with this system. The GFS shows a max to
our south and north while the GEM/ECMWF bring a little more to srn
WI.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Medium
High pressure builds into the area and should bring a dry period.
Cooler temps will be in place with the core of the coldest air in
place Thursday night before a return flow starts to displace the
thermal trough to the east.

Friday night through Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
Another low heads towards the area with a warm/moist advective
regime getting going Friday night. Saturday looks unsettled as mid
level energy surface boundary move through. Showers could end
quickly Saturday evening before drier air moves in.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
High pressure returns with quiet/dry conditions expected.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Main threat this period will be numerous
TSRA within moist axis ahead of slow moving cold front. Expecting
storms to persist into the overnight hours with some breaks at
times. Once the front moves through tonight winds will shift to
the northeast with cold advection pattern taking hold. Ceilings
have been variable across srn WI though once front drops south a
trend towards MVFR and IFR will likely take hold as front pulls
south.

MARINE...Thunderstorm threat will be rebnewed for the overnight
hours. In addition, northeast winds will ramp up in the wake of a
cold front. The small craft advisory looks good. At this point
gales are not expected.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT
     Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...MBK
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Collar

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-022345-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect into Wednesday morning.
Flash flooding and river flooding may occur. If you live in a
flood prone area, be ready to take action to secure or protect
your property from possible flooding.

Some storms tonight may become severe with damaging winds and
large hail. A Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is
outlooked for southern Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of Wednesday
morning. River flooding will remain possible for the remainder of
the week depending on how much rain does fall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LMZ643>646-022345-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Patchy dense fog are expected over the near shore waters through
midnight. The dense fog will reduce the visibility to one mile or
less for a time.

Thunderstorms are likely. An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible.

A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for late this evening.
Breezy northeast winds will develop with building waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect into Wednesday night
for breezy northeast winds and high waves. After a brief lull in
the winds early on Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest
later Thursday morning and will likely reach Small Craft Advisory
levels.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-022345-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. An isolated
severe thunderstorm is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
122 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW BEAVER DAM        43.45N 88.84W
10/01/2019  M3.00 INCH       DODGE              WI   PUBLIC

            RELAYED FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     FLOOD            1 ENE MADISON           43.09N 89.36W
10/01/2019                   DANE               WI   PUBLIC

            A FEW STREETS WERE CLOSED ON THE EAST SIDE
            OF MADISON DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW
            STORM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

&&

TP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
713 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

WIZ051-052-058>060-020130-
Dodge-Sheboygan-Ozaukee-Washington-Fond Du Lac-
713 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OZAUKEE...SOUTHEASTERN
FOND DU LAC...WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN SHEBOYGAN AND EASTERN DODGE
COUNTIES...

At 713 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Campbellsport, to
near Hustisford. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, West Bend, Mequon, Hartford, Brown Deer, Grafton,
Cedarburg, Port Washington, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Jackson,
Mayville, Slinger, Saukville, Bayside, Kewaskum, Horicon,
Thiensville, Oostburg and Lomira.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4368 8770 4356 8779 4346 8780 4337 8788
      4326 8791 4319 8790 4319 8807 4333 8875
      4376 8836 4371 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 279DEG 27KT 4368 8821 4338 8860

WOOD