River Flood Warning 81, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.UPDATE...

The heavier rainfall is just now exiting far southeast Wisconsin.
Mainly light to moderate rain is expected for the remainder of
the night. Some of the rain could be heavy for a time though given
upstream radar returns so will hang on to the Flash Flood Watch
for now. Will keep an eye on radar trends the next couple hours
and consider what to do with the watch down the road.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Lower ceilings are settling into the area and are likely to
persist through the rest of tonight into Wednesday night. Ceilings
may fall below 500 ft at times, especially Wednesday evening and
night.

Widespread light to moderate rain will hang on through much of
tonight, with a chance for showers Wednesday. Could be a few
lingering rumbles of thunder tonight, but the overall lightning
threat will be low the rest of tonight, with no lightning expected
Wednesday.

Breezy northeast winds are expected tonight and Wednesday, easing
a bit and becoming easterly Wednesday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 925 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019)

UPDATE...
A line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to push east
through southern Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall has caused flooding
across most of the area. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3
inches are possible before decreasing Wednesday morning, therefore
the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Still watching the
potential for some stronger storms with wind being the main
threat. Best chance will be before midnight.

MARINE...
Rain and thunderstorms are currently positioned over central Lake
Michigan. Coverage will begin to increase over the next several
hours, especially over the southern half of the lake. Gusty
northeast winds have been observed along and behind a gust front
moving across the southern half of the lake. These gusty winds
will continue overnight and expect wave heights to build. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect tonight through 4AM Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019)

UPDATE...Threat of flash flooding continues with very efficient
rain producing showers and storms expected. Will have itchy
trigger finger for issuing Flash Flood Warnings as many areas
have received between 1 and 3 inches earlier today with locally
higher amounts and heavy precipitation likely to repeatedly affect
the same area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the area next several hours increasing flooding
concerns. Severe thunderstorms moving toward southwest WI from
eastern IA may hang on and producing a few larger hail and wind
reports into south central WI. Can not rule out an isolated
tornado.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous this evening with mostly MVFR and lower ceilings and
occasional visibilities in precipitation.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 213 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019)

DISCUSSION...

Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday night -
Confidence...Medium
Flash Flood Watch still looks good. We are seeing a break in the
activity though the pattern remains conducive for repeated rains
across the area. The front is a slow mover and precipitable water
values are impressively high, especially for this time of year.
MLCAPE axis is set up across east central IA into northern IL
however still plenty of MUCAPE across the area. Another mid level
shortwave and increasing frontogenetical forcing will lead to more
activity evolving into this evening. The exiting precip this
afternoon with a break and renewed activity later played out by
latest HRRR. Could see a little break in things with high pressure
briefly nudging in for a time on wednesday. However more upstream
energy will induce cyclogenesis and bring another low pressure
system to the southeast of the area Wednesday night. There is some
model disparity on qpf with this system. The GFS shows a max to
our south and north while the GEM/ECMWF bring a little more to srn
WI.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Medium
High pressure builds into the area and should bring a dry period.
Cooler temps will be in place with the core of the coldest air in
place Thursday night before a return flow starts to displace the
thermal trough to the east.

Friday night through Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
Another low heads towards the area with a warm/moist advective
regime getting going Friday night. Saturday looks unsettled as mid
level energy surface boundary move through. Showers could end
quickly Saturday evening before drier air moves in.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
High pressure returns with quiet/dry conditions expected.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Main threat this period will be numerous
TSRA within moist axis ahead of slow moving cold front. Expecting
storms to persist into the overnight hours with some breaks at
times. Once the front moves through tonight winds will shift to
the northeast with cold advection pattern taking hold. Ceilings
have been variable across srn WI though once front drops south a
trend towards MVFR and IFR will likely take hold as front pulls
south.

MARINE...Thunderstorm threat will be renewed for the overnight
hours. In addition, northeast winds will ramp up in the wake of a
cold front. The small craft advisory looks good. At this point
gales are not expected.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...DDV
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Collar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-030245-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect into Wednesday morning.
Flash flooding and river flooding may occur. If you live in a
flood prone area, be ready to take action to secure or protect
your property from possible flooding.

Some storms tonight may become severe with damaging winds, large
hail, and an isolated tornado. A Marginal to Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms is outlooked for southern Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of Wednesday
morning. River flooding will remain possible for the remainder of
the week depending on how much rain does fall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LMZ643>646-030245-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Patchy dense fog are expected over the near shore waters through
midnight. The dense fog will reduce the visibility to one mile or
less for a time.

Thunderstorms are likely. An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible.

A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for late this evening.
Breezy northeast winds will develop with building waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect into Wednesday night
for breezy northeast winds and high waves. After a brief lull in
the winds early on Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest
later Thursday morning and will likely reach Small Craft Advisory
levels.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-030245-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. An isolated
severe thunderstorm is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1149 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W OAKFIELD            43.69N 88.63W
10/01/2019  M3.60 INCH       FOND DU LAC        WI   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W SUN PRAIRIE         43.18N 89.25W
10/01/2019  M2.85 INCH       DANE               WI   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W THERESA             43.52N 88.49W
10/01/2019                   DODGE              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY
            INCLUDING COUNTY HWY AY NEAR HWY 28.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1246 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KOHLER                  43.74N 87.78W
10/01/2019                   SHEBOYGAN          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE CLOSED
            INCLUDING LOWER FALLS ROAD IN KOHLER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E MADISON             43.08N 89.37W
10/01/2019                   DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            E WASHINGTON STREET UNDERWATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1250 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE BUTLER             43.10N 88.05W
10/01/2019                   MILWAUKEE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD FLOODED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            MAYFAIR RD (HWY 100) AND CONGRESS ST.

&&