River Flood Warning 70, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
634 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions are expected for a time this morning. MVFR ceilings
will move in from west to east later this morning. There is
uncertainty with how long they will remain in southeast Wisconsin.
Southeast Wisconsin has a chance at seeing VFR later this
afternoon. VFR conditions expected this evening into Saturday.
West winds will gust around 25 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 335 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019)

SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight...Forecast confidence high.

Rain and thunderstorms will linger a few more hours in far southeast
Wisconsin. The surface cold front will move through later this
morning. Winds will shift to the west and become gusty. Clouds will
stick around through the day due to cyclonic flow with low pressure
over Ontario. This low will pull away tonight as high pressure
tracks across the Ohio valley. Skies will start to clear overnight
with the drier west flow.

LONG TERM...

Saturday through Sunday Night...Forecast Confidence is high.

Warming up on Saturday as winds shift to the south and moisture
spreads back northward. A quick moving shortwave will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.
Much of the activity will occur during the overnight hours keeping
thunderstorms more elevated. Shear does increase to around 40-50
kts so a few stronger storms are certainly possible. While the
main synoptic forcing kicks off to the east Sunday morning, there
might be enough lingering moisture and instability around for an
isolated storm or two Sunday afternoon. Highs both Saturday and
Sunday will near 80 degrees and lows will range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Monday through Thursday...Forecast Confidence is medium to high.

An amplified ridge builds eastward to start next week and
eventually becomes centered along the MS River Valley. This will
lead to a continuation of the warm temps with highs near 80
degrees and lows near 60 degrees. Some models want to bring a few
weak shortwaves up and over the ridge axis which could generate a
few showers/storms but confidence in that occurring is low at
this time.

Heading into the latter half of next week the ridge axis shifts
east and a system moving out of the Great Basin into the northern
U.S. could bring showers and storms back to the Midwest. However,
models differ on the track of this next system. This appears to be
a result in how they handle the ridge as it shifts east with the
ECMWF keeping the ridge in tact but the GFS flattens and pushes
the ridge S/SE. For now will keep a blend of guidance going.
Behind this system though all models are on the same idea of
keeping winds more southerly, meaning we hold onto the warmer
temps heading into next weekend.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...
Rain and thunderstorms will linger in far southeast Wisconsin for
another few hours. A period of VFR conditions is possible later this
morning. Southwest winds will gust around 25 knots during the day.
Some uncertainty with ceilings for today but broken MVFR is likely.
Gusts will diminish this evening with VFR conditions tonight into
Saturday.

MARINE...
Brisk southeast winds this morning will become westerly late this
morning. Gales are expected across the northern third of the lake
into tonight. Gusts of 25 knots are expected in the nearshore.

West winds are then expected to remain breezy on Saturday, as high
pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. Winds will become south to
southwest Saturday night and Sunday as the high moves into the
northeast. Low pressure will move across the northern part of the
lake Sunday night and winds will shift to the northwest behind it.

BEACHES...
Gusty winds will create wave of 5 to 8 feet for Sheboygan and
Ozaukee counties and 3 to 5 feet for Milwaukee, Racine, and
Kenosha counties. These high wave will create dangerous beach
conditions. A beach hazards statement is in effect though Friday
morning.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ052-
     060-066-071-072.

LM...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LMZ261-362-364-563.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ366-565.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Marquardt
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Marquardt
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Stumpf

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
342 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-140845-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
342 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin,
south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are exiting the area but flooding from
the heavy rainfall overnight is still ongoing.

There is a high swim risk in effect for beaches along Lake
Michigan tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a high swim risk in effect for beaches along Lake
Michigan through early Friday afternoon.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night. There are
slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CoCoRaHS rainfall reports will be appreciated through the rest of
this week. Spotter reports may be needed today into Thursday.

LMZ643>646-140845-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
342 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will gradually end this morning as the cold front
pushes east.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening for building
waves ahead of the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday afternoon
and evening due to strong westerly winds occurring behind the
front.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-140845-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
342 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances gradually end from west to east this morning
as a cold front moves out over the lake.

South winds will increase to gale force across the far northern
portions of the lake this evening. The winds will become more
southwesterly early Friday morning, with gale gusts continuing
into mid day Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Southwest gales will continue into mid day Friday.

More thunderstorms are expected Saturday night.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW BELOIT            42.52N 89.02W
09/13/2019  M2.34 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BELOIT COLLEGE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
643 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E BURLINGTON          42.68N 88.25W
09/13/2019  M3.07 INCH       RACINE             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WWTP.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
644 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE SAUKVILLE         43.39N 87.93W
09/13/2019  M2.56 INCH       OZAUKEE            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WWTP.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
702 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W WEST ALLIS          43.00N 88.07W
09/13/2019                   MILWAUKEE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LINCOLN AVE FROM 124TH ST TO ROOT RIVER
            PARKWAY AND NATIONAL AVE FROM 124TH TO ROOT
            RIVER PARKWAY IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER
            THE ROADS.

&&

STUMPF