River Flood Warning 68, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
100 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue for far southeast
Wisconsin until around sunrise. Surface front is in western
Wisconsin. Additional showers ahead of the front across Illinois
will push into southern and southeast Wisconsin continuing the
flooding threat.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
Line of thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward. Some
showers and thunderstorms may linger in far southeast Wisconsin,
including MKE until 12Z/6AM. A period of VFR conditions is
possible later this morning. Southwest winds will gust around 25
knots during the day. Some uncertainty with ceilings for today but
broken MVFR is likely. Gusts will diminish this evening with VFR
conditions tonight into Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 950 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019)

UPDATE...

Ongoing storms will continue to slowly push eastward. The severe
weather threat remains somewhat with the greatest risk for
damaging wind. However, given the slow propagation of the storms
and some training as well we have issued multiple flash flood
warning. We expect flash flooding potential to remain a threat as
these storms push eastward.

MARINE...

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the nearshore areas
with waves approaching 3 to 5 feet with upwards of 7 feet in the
northern nearshore areas overnight as breezy southeast winds
continue. The small craft advisory will continue through much of the
day Friday as well as winds shift more to the south and then to
the west. This will allow for waves to subside slowly throughout
the day though we expect breezy nearshore winds to continue into
the afternoon.

In addition to the nearshore areas we have a gale warning out for
the northern third of the lake with the expectation that wind
gusts will be at or above gale force tonight through tomorrow
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 256 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Rest of this Afternoon through Tonight...Forecast Confidence is
Moderate...

The surface warm front remains to our south at this hour, but will
begin to mix north into southern Wisconsin later this afternoon
into this evening. A few storms have formed across northern
Illinois in the vicinity of the front, but this activity should
remain pretty widely scattered through this afternoon. Otherwise,
occasional light rain/drizzle, fog, and low stratus will continue
for areas north of the warm front.

More widespread activity is starting to take shape to our west
across Iowa and southern Minnesota, closer to the cold front and
surface low. We should see this organize into a line/broken line
of storms, which will move into the western portions of the
forecast area early to mid evening, and progress to the east
through midnight or so.

The line itself will have the potential of producing strong
straight line wind gusts, as well as the potential for spin-up
QLCS tornado activity, given ample low level CAPE and favorable
0-3KM bulk shear vectors. Ahead of this line, we may some some
additional storms develop, though this potential is much less
certain. Should they indeed develop, sufficient deep layer shear
will result in supercell structures, and an associated tornado
threat, especially along the warm front.

Friday...Forecast Confidence High...

Breezy west winds are expected through the day Friday, with
cooler and less humid weather. Temperatures should range from the
upper 60s west to low 70s east. Cloud cover should be variable,
with a decent stratocu deck developing by mid day.

LONG TERM...

Friday Evening Through Saturday Night...Forecast Confidence is
Medium...

Friday evening will be mostly quiet with the low pressure system
having pushed out and the pressure gradient weakening allowing
breezy winds to subside. High pressure to the south will likely keep
the area dry through the overnight hours and through much of the day
Saturday. However, by Saturday evening we will likely see another
low pressure system push into the area with conditional storm
potential. This should be associated with a weak upper level
shortwave in addition to some low level moisture, plenty of WAA,
and a LLJ.

This is still a few days out so there is some uncertainty,
especially with respect to the availability of low level moisture
and sufficient forcing for storms. The timing will also really
impact the potential for strong to severe storms as the current
timing is a little late to take advantage of the better lapse
rates and instability that would be available during the early
evening. However, the LLJ will likely bring moderate low level
shear to the region yielding a higher potential for any storms to
become strong.

Sunday Through Thursday...Forecast Confidence is Low...

After storms push through Saturday night we will likely see quiet
weather return by Sunday morning with higher pressure moving in.
High pressure centered to the north will keep the area dry through
most of Monday before potential for showers and storms Monday
night through Thursday, primarily to the west. The precipitation
chances for this period are very uncertain with high pressure
setting up in the easter half of the U.S. and lower pressure to
the west. This could set up a quasi-stationary north-south axis of
showers and storms for a few days given southeast winds bringing
some theta-e advection. This axis seems likely to remain to the
west of our CWA at this point and generally remains very
uncertain, especially with regards to lifting mechanisms for this
period. How this plays out is certain to change some but will be a
focus for weather next week.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

IFR to LIFR conditions continue across the area, with low fog and
ceilings. Conditions will improve later today, as winds increase
and a surface warm front begins to lift through the area. A few
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon.

Later this evening into tonight, a line of potentially strong to
severe storms is expected to move through the area from west to
east. Strong gusty winds will be possible with this line, along
with MVFR to IFR flight conditions. The line is expected to move
east of the terminals around or after midnight, though light to
moderate rain will likely continue behind the line.

Ceilings should finally start to scatter out tomorrow morning,
as gusty west to southwest winds usher in a drier airmass.

MARINE...

Easterly flow will become southeasterly and then southerly this
evening into tonight, as a warm front lifts north across the lake.
Some fog continues across the nearshore waters, but should
dissipate later this afternoon as winds increase and become more
southerly. Waves will also build later this afternoon, with a
Small Craft Advisory starting early this evening.

For the open waters, southerly gales are expected to develop over
the northern 1/3 or so of the lake this evening into the
overnight, and with winds eventually becoming more southwesterly
or westerly with time. Gales will continue through through the
morning on Friday.

Brisk westerly winds will continue through the day Friday, as low
pressure lifts through Ontario. The Small Craft Advisory will
continue for gusty winds through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ059-060-
     064>066-069>072.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for WIZ052-060-
     066-071-072.

LM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ261-362-364-
     366-563-565.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Marquardt
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...ARK
Saturday Night through Friday...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
312 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin,
south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly move north across the area
this evening ahead of an approaching system. Moderate to
occasional heavy rain is possible. Another round of showers and
storms are expected tonight as a cold front sweeps across the
area. Strong to severe storms are possible this evening with the
cold front. Thunderstorms chances to end by late tonight.

There is increasing concern for flooding as multiple rounds of
rainfall the past few days have resulted in saturated soils. A
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of southern Wisconsin.

There is a high swim risk in effect for beaches along Lake
Michigan tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a high swim risk in effect for beaches along Lake
Michigan through early Friday afternoon.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night. There are
slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CoCoRaHS rainfall reports will be appreciated through the rest of
this week. Spotter reports may be needed today into Thursday.

LMZ643>646-132015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
312 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight as a cold front
moves through the area.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening for building
waves ahead of the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday afternoon
and evening due to strong westerly winds occurring behind the
front.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-132015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
312 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances spread across the entire lake this evening
and overnight.

South winds will increase to gale force across the far northern
portions of the lake this evening. The winds will become more
southwesterly early Friday morning, with gale gusts continuing
into mid day Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Southwest gales will continue into mid day Friday.

More thunderstorms are expected Saturday night.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1158 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRAIRIE DU SAC          43.29N 89.73W
09/12/2019                   SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SAUK CITY               43.27N 89.73W
09/12/2019                   SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S MOUNT HOREB         42.97N 89.73W
09/12/2019                   DANE               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1258 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE JANESVILLE         42.70N 88.99W
09/13/2019                   ROCK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN JANESVILLE DUE TO
            FLASH FLOODING. COUNTY HIGHWAY D SOUTH OF
            THE CITY AND THE INTERSECTION OF LEXINGTON
            DRIVE AND MOUNT ZION AVENUE WERE AMONG THE
            CLOSURES.

&&

WOOD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
134 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW WEST ALLIS        42.99N 88.06W
09/13/2019                   MILWAUKEE          WI   911 CALL CENTER

            THE ROOT RIVER PARKWAY BETWEEN OKLAHOMA AVE
            AND CLEVELAND AVE IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER
            OVER THE ROAD.

0131 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW NEW BERLIN         42.98N 88.14W
09/13/2019                   WAUKESHA           WI   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTED NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS.

0128 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE FONTANA-ON-GENEVA  42.53N 88.55W
09/13/2019                   WALWORTH           WI   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTING MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES
            ACROSS SOUTHERN WALWORTH COUNTY.

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW MUSKEGO           42.90N 88.14W
09/13/2019                   WAUKESHA           WI   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTING MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES IN
            MUSKEGO FROM WATER OVER THE ROADS.

&&