Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Medford, OR

953 
WWUS86 KMFR 082009
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
109 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...Increasing Fire Weather Risk this afternoon into this evening
and again Friday into Saturday...

.Another period of gusty winds and low relative humidity will
develop this afternoon and evening in the Fremont National Forest 
in south-central Oregon as well as the Klamath and Modoc National 
Forest in northeast California. Isolated thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon and evening in northern Klamath and Lake Counties, 
and also in the Warner Mountains.

.A strong system for this time of the year will move up from the 
south on Friday and could bring frequent lightning on dry fuels 
late Friday morning into Friday evening. Thunderstorms are expected
to produce little or no rainfall to start, then the chance for 
wetting rain is expected to increase Friday evening. Thunderstorms
are expected to diminish in coverage and intensity west of the 
Cascades Friday night into Saturday morning. Thunderstorms will 
then increase in coverage again Saturday afternoon and evening, 
especially along and east of the Cascades. 


ORZ624-090400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0004.190809T1800Z-190810T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.190808T2100Z-190809T0400Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
109 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9 PM PDT 
TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE ZONE 624 IN OREGON... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PDT 
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
624...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 
AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Saturday. 

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of any
  new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. On Friday, 
  abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts 
  that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm 
  initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall may occur 
  under cores of thunderstorms.

* Affected area in the Red Flag Warning for strong winds and low
  relative humidity: In South Central OR...The Fremont National 
  Forest in south-central portion of fire zone 624.

* Affected area in the Red Flag Warning for abundant lightning on
  dry fuels: In South Central OR...Fire Zone 624 mainly north and 
  west of Kalamth Falls.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, increasing in
  coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage
  could increase to scattered as the day progresses. Thunderstorms
  are expected to decrease in coverage Friday night into Saturday
  morning, then could increase again Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday evening. 

* Winds this afternoon and evening: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with
  gusts up to 25 mph.

* Winds Friday afternoon and evening: Generally south to southwest
  at 10 to 20 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the
  vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

* Minimum humidity: 8 to 12 percent.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ284-090400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0004.190809T1800Z-190810T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.190808T2100Z-190809T0400Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
109 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9 PM PDT 
TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE ZONE 284 IN
CALIFORNIA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5
PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 284...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 
AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Saturday. 

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of any
  new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. On Friday, 
  abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts 
  that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm 
  initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall may occur 
  under cores of thunderstorms.

* Affected area in the Red Flag Warning for strong winds and low
  relative humidity: In Northern CA...The Klamath National Forest
  in northeast portions of fire zone 284. 

* Affected area in the Red Flag Warning: In Northern CA...the
  western half of Fire Zone 284, including Tennant and Dorris. 

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, increasing in
  coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage
  could increase to scattered as the day progresses. Thunderstorms
  are expected to decrease in coverage Friday night into Saturday
  morning, then could increase again Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday evening.

* Winds this afternoon and evening: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with
  gusts up to 25 mph.

* Winds Friday afternoon and evening: Generally south to southwest
  at 10 to 20 mph with gust to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds
  are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

* Minimum humidity: 8 to 12 percent.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

ORZ617-623-625-090400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0004.190809T1800Z-190810T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
109 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 617...623 AND 625...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 
AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Saturday. 

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall
  may occur under cores of thunderstorms.

* Affected area: In southwest Oregon, all of Fire Zones 617, and
  623, including eastern Jackson county, eastern Douglas county 
  and western Klamath county. In south central Oregon the northwest
  portion of Fire zone 625 mainly northwest of Summer Lake, 
  including northwest Lake county. 

* Wind: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
  25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity
  of showers and thunderstorms.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, increasing in
  coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage
  could increase to scattered to numerous as the day progresses.
  Thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage Friday night
  into Saturday morning, then could increase again Saturday
  afternoon into Saturday evening. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ616-620>622-090400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0004.190809T1800Z-190810T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0000Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Umpqua Basin-
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
109 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 280...281...616...620...621 AND 622...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 
AM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday. 

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall
  may occur under cores of thunderstorms.

* Affected area: In western Oregon, Fire Zone 616, mainly east of
  Elkton and Sitkum including central and Douglas County. In
  southwest Oregon, all of Fire Zone 620, 621, 622, including most
  of Josephine county, all of Jackson county. In Northern 
  California, All of Fire zone 280 and most of 281 including 
  western Siskiyou county.

* Wind: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity
 of showers and thunderstorms.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, increasing in
  coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage
  could increase to scattered to numerous as the day progresses.
  Thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage Friday night
  into Saturday morning, then could increase again Saturday
  afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ285-090400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.190808T2100Z-190809T0400Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
109 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9 PM PDT 
TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of any
  new and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA...Modoc National Forest in fire
  zone 285, mainly from Alturas north and west.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 8 to 12 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
will occur shortly.

Strong wind and low relative humidity could cause any existing or 
new fires to spread rapidly.

&&

$$

Petrucelli 

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

595 
WWUS86 KMFR 090216 AAA
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Medford OR
716 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...Fire Weather Risk to Continue into Saturday...

.Gusty winds will gradually lower and humidity will rise later
this evening in the Fremont National Forest in south-central 
Oregon as well as the Klamath and Modoc National Forest in 
northeast California. 

A strong system for this time of the year will move up from the 
south on Friday and could bring frequent lightning on dry fuels 
late Friday morning into Friday evening. Thunderstorms are 
expected to produce little or no rainfall to start, then the 
chance for wetting rain is expected to increase Friday evening.
The risk of thunderstorms could continue overnight through 
Saturday evening, though these should produce significant
rainfall.


CAZ285-090400-
/O.EXB.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190810T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190809T0400Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
716 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY 
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday. 

* Impacts: This evening, strong, gusty wind with low relative 
  humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a 
  significant spread of any new and existing fires. On Saturday, 
  abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts 
  that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm 
  initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall may occur
  under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: This evening, In Northern CA...Modoc National 
  Forest in fire zone 285, mainly from Alturas north and west. On 
  Saturday, all of Fire Zone 285.

* Winds this evening: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 
  mph.

* Humidity this evening: 8 to 12 percent.

* Winds on Saturday: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph
  with gusts to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible 
  in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. 

* Thunderstorms: Lightning coverage, mainly isolated through
  Friday could increase to scattered on Saturday. Thunderstorms
  are expected to end late Saturday evening. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ284-090400-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190809T0400Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
716 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284...
 
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PDT 
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONE 284...

The National Weather Service in Medford has extended the Red Flag
Warning for abundant lightning on dry fuels...which is in effect 
from 11 AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Saturday.

* Impacts: This evening, strong, gusty wind with low relative 
  humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a 
  significant spread of any new and existing fires. Friday through
  Saturday, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall
  may occur under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: This evening, In Northern CA...The Klamath 
  National Forest in northeast portions of fire zone 284. On 
  Friday and Saturday, mainly the western half of fire zone 284 on
  Friday, then all of the zone on Saturday. 

* Winds this evening: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 
  mph.

* Minimum humidity this evening: 8 to 12 percent.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. 
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered as the day 
  progresses. Thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage 
  Friday night into Saturday morning, then could increase again 
  Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

* Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday evening: Generally 
  south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gust to 25 mph, but 
  gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers 
  and thunderstorms.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

ORZ624-090400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190809T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
716 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... 

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM 
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 624...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of
  any new and existing fires this evening. On Friday, abundant 
  lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose
  a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack
  capabilities. However, wetting rainfall may occur under cores 
  of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: This evening, In South Central OR...The Fremont
  National Forest in south-central portion of fire zone 624. On
  Friday and Saturday, mainly north and west of Klamath Falls on
  Friday, then across all of the zone on Saturday. 

* Winds this evening: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 
  mph.

* Minimum humidity this evening: 8 to 12 percent.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. 
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered as the day 
  progresses. Thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage 
  Friday night into Saturday morning, then could increase again 
  Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

* Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday evening: Generally 
  south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, but gusty and erratic winds 
  are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

ORZ617-623-625-090400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
716 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 617, 623, AND 625...

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting 
  rainfall may occur under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: In southwest Oregon, all of Fire Zones 617, and
  623, including eastern Jackson county, eastern Douglas county
  and western Klamath county. In south central Oregon, the
  northwest portion of Fire Zone 625 mainly northwest of Summer
  Lake, including northwest Lake county on Friday, then all of
  Fire Zone 625 on Saturday.

* Wind: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts
  to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the 
  vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. 

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening.
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered to numerous as
  the day progresses. Thunderstorms could continue overnight
  through Saturday evening. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ616-620>622-090400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0000Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Umpqua Basin-
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
716 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 280, 281, 616, 620, 621, AND 622...

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting 
  rainfall may occur under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: In western Oregon, Fire Zone 616, mainly east of
  Elkton and Sitkum including central and Douglas County. In
  southwest Oregon, all of Fire Zones 620, 621, 622, including
  most of Josephine county and all of Jackson county. In Northern
  California, all of Fire Zone 280 and most of 281, including 
  western Siskiyou county.

* Wind: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts
  to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the 
  vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. 

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening.
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered to numerous as
  the day progresses. Thunderstorms could continue overnight
  through Saturday. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

MAS

003 
WWUS86 KMFR 090406
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
906 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...Fire Weather Risk to Continue Friday into Saturday...

.A strong system for this time of the year will move up from the
south on Friday and could bring frequent lightning on dry fuels 
late Friday morning into Friday evening. Thunderstorms are 
expected to produce little or no rainfall to start, then the 
chance for wetting rain is expected to increase Friday evening. 
The risk of thunderstorms could continue overnight through 
Saturday evening, though these should produce significant 
rainfall.

CAZ284-ORZ624-091400-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190809T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
906 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 624 IN OREGON AND 284 IN CALIFORNIA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 IN OREGON AND 284 IN CALIFORNIA... 

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting rainfall
  may occur under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: On Friday, mainly the north and western portions
  of Fire Zones 624 and 284, but then across all of the zones on 
  Saturday.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms 
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. 
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered as the day 
  progresses. Thunderstorms are expected to decrease in 
  coverage Friday night into Saturday morning, then could 
  increase again Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

* Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday evening: Generally 
  south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, but gusty and erratic 
  winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and 
  thunderstorms.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ285-091400-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190809T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190810T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
906 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONE 285...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts: On Saturday, abundant lightning on dry fuels may 
  produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and 
  property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. 
  However, wetting rainfall may occur under cores of 
  thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: On Saturday, all of the Modoc National Forest in
  Fire Zone 285. 

* Winds on Saturday: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 
  mphwith gusts to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are 
  possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. 

* Thunderstorms: Lightning coverage, mainly isolated through 
  Friday could increase to scattered on Saturday. Thunderstorms 
  are expected to end late Saturday evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

ORZ617-623-625-091400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0500Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
906 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 617, 623, AND 625...

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting 
  rainfall may occur under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: In southwest Oregon, all of Fire Zones 617, 
  and 623, including eastern Jackson county, eastern Douglas 
  county and western Klamath county. In south central Oregon, 
  the northwest portion of Fire Zone 625 mainly northwest of 
  Summer Lake, including northwest Lake county on Friday, then 
  all of Fire Zone 625 on Saturday.

* Wind: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts 
  to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the 
  vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms 
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. 
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered to numerous as 
  the day progresses. Thunderstorms could continue overnight 
  through Saturday evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ616-620>622-091400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.190809T1800Z-190811T0000Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Umpqua Basin-
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
906 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 280, 281, 616, 620, 621, AND 622...

* Impacts: Abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous 
  new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may 
  overwhelm initial attack capabilities. However, wetting 
  rainfall may occur under cores of thunderstorms. 

* Affected area: In western Oregon, Fire Zone 616, mainly east 
  ofElkton and Sitkum including central and Douglas County. In 
  southwest Oregon, all of Fire Zones 620, 621, 622, including 
  most of Josephine county and all of Jackson county. In 
  Northern California, all of Fire Zone 280 and most of 281, 
  including western Siskiyou county.

* Wind: Generally south to southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts 
  to 25 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the 
  vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

* Thunderstorms: Beginning late Friday morning, then storms 
  increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. 
  Lightning coverage could increase to scattered to numerous as 
  the day progresses. Thunderstorms could continue overnight 
  through Saturday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

&&

$$

MAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
856 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.UPDATE...Thunderstorm never really got rolling within the
forecast area this afternoon, with most cells skirting just to
the east of Lake and Modoc Counties. A few strikes were recorded
along the Warner Mountains in southeastern Modoc County, but the
cells responsible for these strikes dissipated quickly. With
daytime heating ending and with very few significant features on
satellite or RADAR, we have ended the thunderstorm chances for
today, although some showers ares still possible over eastern
Lake and Modoc Counties through tonight.

Once again, it looks as if the marine layer will make a
significant push inland tonight, as it has already filled in all
of Coos and Curry Counties and much of the Umpqua Basin, right up
to the Douglas and Jackson/Josephine County lines. Fog, stratus,
drizzle, and light rain are possible for all of these areas
overnight and into the morning. It is also possible that the
marine layer makes a push into the Rogue and Illinois Valleys.
Although unlikely, Medford and Grants Pass could see clouds develop
before sunrise.

For information on the rest of the forecast, see the previous
discussion below. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...For the 08/00Z TAFs...A deep marine layer will continue
on the coast and return again into the Roseburg area and into the
Cascade foothills and up to the Umpqua Divide, with some stratus
possibly spilling over the Umpqua Divide.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours,
although there is a possibility of isolated afternoon thunderstorms
over northern Lake and Klamath Counties. -Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday 07 August 2019...An
upper level low will slowly drift west to east across the coastal
waters this week, finally moving onshore Saturday. No strong low
level features are expected during this time, and as a result,
relatively calm winds and seas will continue through Sunday morning.
However, there will be extensive fog and/or low clouds with periods
of drizzle or light showers due to extra lift within and above the
marine layer. Expect the best chance of showers to occur Friday into
Saturday as the center of the low passes overhead.

The thermal trough could re-establish itself early next week, with
gusty north winds returning as early as Sunday evening. -BPN/Miles

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A lot of interesting stuff on satellite this afternoon with a
persistent marine layer draping the coast and parts of the Umpqua
Valley. That should burn off a little bit this afternoon and
evening, but the coast will be stuck in the stratus layer for the
remainder of the day. Cumulus clouds are also pretty widespread in
northern California and suggest the addition of a slight chance
for thunderstorms near Modoc County this morning was a wise move.
We've seen some cloud to ground strikes already in parts of
California, yet south of our area of responsibility. The slight
chance for thunderstorms near Crescent and Chemult is looking a
little iffy because of the lack of cumulus development, but we'll
keep the slight chance for the remainder of this evening.

The upper level low currently sitting to our west will continue to
spin and bring in another deep marine layer tonight. We'll see the
clouds spill into the majority of the Umpqua valley, but they
should stay out of the Rogue valley. Temperatures will then start
a downward trending starting Thursday as highs will be below
normal and in the 80's for most of the westside and eastside. The
slight chance for thunderstorms will continue for parts of Modoc
County and most of northern Lake and Klamath Counties. Again,
we're not expecting a lot of lightning with this event as total
cloud to ground strikes should be under 100.

The big day we're watching is Friday. We're expecting the upper
level low to take on a negative tilt in the afternoon and evening
with a cold front moving onshore over northern California.
Usually when this happens, we notice stronger dynamics in the
winds aloft and the storms like to pack more of a punch with more
lightning and stronger winds. The 0 to 6 km bulk shear is also
around 45 knots over most of our area, which is pretty good for
southern Oregon. As a result, Storm Prediction Center has us under
a marginal risk on Friday for some of the reasons mention above.
With all that in mind, we may see some severe thunderstorms on
Friday. The most likely areas are along the Cascades and areas
adjacent to them. Because of the large amount of lightning
expected, we decided to issue a fire weather watch on Friday. This
will be explained in more detail in the fire weather discussion
below.

Eventually, the low will move eastward and colder air will move into
region Saturday. Temperatures will drop significantly with valley
highs in the upper 70's and mid 50's over the higher terrain.
These highs are about 15 degrees cooler that what we usually see
this time of year. In addition to all this, we'll still have a
chance for showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms on
Saturday. Potential instability doesn't look as good compared to
Friday, but there is still enough to warrant a slight chance for
areas away from the coast.

Beyond this weekend things start to return to normal with highs
moving back to their climatological normals for this time of year.
The four corner high slides down farther southward towards the
start of next week, so this will probably allow for more upper
level lows to move through the Pacific Northwest.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday 06 August 2019...The main
concern ahead will be Friday with the potential for abundant
lightning with dry fuels. The details on this will follow below.

Friday is still likely to be the most active day of the forecast
period in terms of thunderstorm coverage, frequency of lighting and
storm intensity. There is good agreement showing the upper low
moving east towards southwest Oregon and becoming negatively tilted
during the day Friday. This pattern is one that is favorable for
scattered thunderstorms for along and west of the Cascades and also
portions of the East Side. Thunderstorms are expected to fire up
late Friday morning, then increase in coverage and intensity as the
afternoon progresses. It's not out of the question a few storms
could be severe Friday afternoon and early Friday evening. Right
now, it looks like the bullseye for scattered storms could be from
central Siksyou county, near and along the Cascades both on the west
and east side. Given the above scenario, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for most of the forecast area. The exception is the
coastal fire zones (618,615 and 619) and Fire Zone 285. Please see
RFWMFR for details.

In the meantime, most locations will remain dry and hot this
afternoon. The latest visible satellite image shows cumulus
development along the Cascades and eastside in southeast Fire Zones
624, 625 and most of 285. the latest operational models and Convect
allowing models (CAM) show the potential for isolated thunderstorms
in in these areas late this afternoon and early evening. For the
Cascades, it still looks like the best chance for isolated storms
will be north of Crater Lake.

Gusty winds are expected east of the Cascades late this afternoon
and evening with winds strongest in southern Fire zones 624 and 625
and portions of fire zone 280 in California and a Red Flag Warning
for gusty winds and low relative humidity remains in effect from 2
pm until 9 pm PDT. Please RFWMFR for more details. The main driving
force for winds will be an increasing pressure gradient and 600 mb
winds near 20 kts.

Haines 5 conditions are expected east of the Cascades in Oregon and
most of northern California. Could not rule out a Haines 6 for
portions of Fire zones 624 and 625 this afternoon.

The upper low near 133W and 42N will move slowly south over the next
24-48 hours. Ahead of it will be a south to southwest flow on
Thursday. There's good agreement drier air at the mid levels will
move into the area with most of the mid level moisture and stronger
trigger staying east and north of our area. However there the
combination of mid level moisture, instability and trigger may be
sufficient for a slight chance of thunderstorms to develop once
again mainly north of Crater Lake, northern Fire zone 624 and
northern and eastern Fire zone 625 and eastern Fire zone 285. It
still looks like the bulk of the action will be out of our area to
the east and north. Winds east of the Cascades could end up slightly
stronger Thursday afternoon and evening. However, winds aloft (at
600mb) are not particularly strong (in the order of 15-20 kts). Also
min relative humidities are expected to be a little higher, so were
not expecting the combination of wind and relative humidity to reach
Red Flag Criteria.

The upper low will move overhead Saturday with noticeable cooling.
However the combination of colder air aloft and strong surface
heating will set the table a continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms for most of the area. Of note, depending on the timing
of the low shifting inland, may see the risk for thunderstorms over
a broader area on Saturday, especially if the low is slower to move
inland.

After Saturday. Dry and stable conditions will return with no threat
of thunderstorms from Sunday into at least the early part of next
week.

-Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for ORZ616-617-620>625.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for CAZ280-281-284.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.