Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A distinct outflow boundary from convection earlier in the day
extends from Northeast Mississippi, across Western Tennessee and
into Southeast Missouri. Warm temperatures to the West, and cooler
temperatures where rain cooled the air in Tennessee has also set
up a thermal boundary helping to focus lift. Very little if any
cap is in place allowing storms to rapidly develop across the
area. Short term high resolution guidance has forecast this
redevelopment all day. Hail and wind will be the primary threats
from the strongest storms. Weak steering flow will result in slow
moving storms toward the South. Storms should dissipate and weaken
some after sunset, but may continue to propagate along the
outflow boundary well into the night.

Tomorrow should be a repeat of today. Surface High pressure and a
ridge to our West should keep areas near the Mississippi River
dry, but a few storms may develop farther East across North
Mississippi and West Tennessee. Highs should climb well into the
80s but may be curbed where there is convection.

Friday looks like the warmest day on tap, though Eastern portions
of the Midsouth may be just as warm Saturday. The warmest
locations may approach 90 degrees as the ridge shifts over the
Mississippi River Valley.

The ridge will shift East of the River Saturday setting up
Southwest flow from Southwest Texas across the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley. Late Saturday into early Sunday a
deepening surface low will move out of the Central Plains and
across North Missouri. A trailing cold front will move into
Western Arkansas early Sunday. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, beginning Saturday
night and continuing through the day Sunday. Strong vertical shear
profiles and abundant moisture in place should result in a few
Strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging wind being
the biggest threats. Instability may be limited Sunday due to
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, and there are significant
timing differences between various models. The GFS has the leading
edge of the precipitation into Middle TN and West AL by 12z
Sunday while the ECMWF has it barely across the Mississippi River.

It looks like we will be between systems Monday and Tuesday, but
a few diurnally drives storms will remain possible as high
temperatures rebound into the middle 80s. Another organized storm
system looks likely midweek.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

A weak shortwave/outflow boundaries will trigger afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. S/SW
winds between 8 to 12kts with a few higher gusts possible this
afternoon, becoming light overnight. VFR conditions are expected
outside of thunderstorms.

KRF

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-162215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
309 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening, from Northeast Arkansas, through the Missouri Bootheel
and into West Tennessee. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday,
primarily for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
518 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

TNZ049-152245-
Tipton TN-
518 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...

At 517 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Covington, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Tipton County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3549 8947 3542 8947 3539 8963 3553 8978
      3561 8967
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 320DEG 16KT 3554 8970

AC3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

TNZ049-088-089-152330-
Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
552 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 551 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Dixonville, or 10
miles northeast of Millington, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tipton...northwestern Fayette and northeastern
Shelby Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3554 8967 3541 8947 3540 8947 3540 8946
      3536 8940 3524 8961 3543 8985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 320DEG 15KT 3543 8975

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