Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A distinct outflow boundary from convection earlier in the day
extends from Northeast Mississippi, across Western Tennessee and
into Southeast Missouri. Warm temperatures to the West, and cooler
temperatures where rain cooled the air in Tennessee has also set
up a thermal boundary helping to focus lift. Very little if any
cap is in place allowing storms to rapidly develop across the
area. Short term high resolution guidance has forecast this
redevelopment all day. Hail and wind will be the primary threats
from the strongest storms. Weak steering flow will result in slow
moving storms toward the South. Storms should dissipate and weaken
some after sunset, but may continue to propagate along the
outflow boundary well into the night.

Tomorrow should be a repeat of today. Surface High pressure and a
ridge to our West should keep areas near the Mississippi River
dry, but a few storms may develop farther East across North
Mississippi and West Tennessee. Highs should climb well into the
80s but may be curbed where there is convection.

Friday looks like the warmest day on tap, though Eastern portions
of the Midsouth may be just as warm Saturday. The warmest
locations may approach 90 degrees as the ridge shifts over the
Mississippi River Valley.

The ridge will shift East of the River Saturday setting up
Southwest flow from Southwest Texas across the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley. Late Saturday into early Sunday a
deepening surface low will move out of the Central Plains and
across North Missouri. A trailing cold front will move into
Western Arkansas early Sunday. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, beginning Saturday
night and continuing through the day Sunday. Strong vertical shear
profiles and abundant moisture in place should result in a few
Strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging wind being
the biggest threats. Instability may be limited Sunday due to
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, and there are significant
timing differences between various models. The GFS has the leading
edge of the precipitation into Middle TN and West AL by 12z
Sunday while the ECMWF has it barely across the Mississippi River.

It looks like we will be between systems Monday and Tuesday, but
a few diurnally drives storms will remain possible as high
temperatures rebound into the middle 80s. Another organized storm
system looks likely midweek.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

A weak shortwave/outflow boundaries will trigger afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. S/SW
winds between 8 to 12kts with a few higher gusts possible this
afternoon, becoming light overnight. VFR conditions are expected
outside of thunderstorms.

KRF

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-162215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
309 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening, from Northeast Arkansas, through the Missouri Bootheel
and into West Tennessee. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday,
primarily for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
347 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

ARZ009-018-152115-
Greene AR-Clay AR-
347 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 347 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Maynard, or 9 miles
south of Doniphan, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Greene and northwestern Clay Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 9044 3649 9035 3617 9079 3621 9081
      3629 9081 3630 9079 3628 9078 3628 9075
      3641 9075 3641 9077 3642 9076 3643 9078
      3643 9077 3644 9078 3649 9077 3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 318DEG 16KT 3649 9083

KRF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
409 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

ARZ026-027-152200-
Poinsett AR-Craighead AR-
409 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Poinsett County in eastern Arkansas...
Western Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...

At 409 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located over Egypt, or 8 miles west of Bono, moving south
at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Poinsett and western Craighead Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3588 9087 3592 9087 3593 9086
      3596 9086 3568 9069 3559 9100 3574 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 340DEG 13KT 3588 9095