Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...main story will be continued severe weather threat over
our southern and southeastern counties. CAPE values have reached
500-1000 J/kg over northern/northeastern MS. Vertical wind shear
remains favorable for storm organization and rotation. Line of
storms is becoming organized over NW MS, with some smaller more
discrete cells ahead of line. Most favored area for severe will
persist ahead /east-southeast/ of the line.

Meanwhile, over our far northern counties, may see a brief
mixture of frozen precip as precipitation clears out. Will include
mention of rain or light snow overnight, with no accumulation
expected.

Tuesday through Friday...mainly dry and cool conditions expected as
surface high pressure builds in. Surface ridge should remain over
the area into early Thursday with northerly winds persisting.
Falling pressures to the west in advance of upstream system will
generate return southerly flow late Thursday into Friday night.

Saturday through Monday...next system will swing across the region
on Saturday. GFS and ECMWF both keep system south of our area, with
the GFS a little stronger with the system. Will go with low POPs and
low QPF over our southern counties. Upper level ridging builds over
the area Sunday-Monday, which will bring southerly winds and mild
temperatures into the area for the beginning of next week.

GW

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

A stationary front located near a CKM-UOX-PVE line will begin to
move east this afternoon. Widespread rain/showers with scattered
thunderstorms will continue today. Storms north of this front will
remain elevated while surface based storms to its south may
contain gusty winds. Rain/thunderstorms are expected to end from
west to east between 00-06z with generally dry weather thereafter.

IFR conditions will persist through the night in many areas,
especially east of the MS River with improving conditions by 15z.
Winds will shift from the north/northwest behind the cold front
and may be gusty at times.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
321 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening
over northeastern Mississippi and adjacent portions of west
Tennessee. Damaging winds will be the main threat. A tornado is
possible along with large hail and heavy rainfall. Localized flash
flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early this
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
104 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

MSZ003-TNZ089-090-161930-
Benton MS-Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-
104 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 130 PM CST
FOR...

Northwestern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Fayette County in western Tennessee...

At 104 PM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Lamar, or 10 miles northeast of Holly
Springs, moving northeast at 65 mph.

People in northwestern Benton...southern Hardeman and southeastern
Fayette Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3513 8887 3482 8924 3485 8930 3485 8935
      3491 8935 3520 8928 3523 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 218DEG 55KT 3486 8930

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
154 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

MSZ011-012-020-162030-
Tallahatchie MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
154 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CST
FOR...

Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 154 PM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Sumner, or 10 miles
northeast of Parchman, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Tallahatchie...southwestern Panola and southern Quitman
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3408 9045 3432 9010 3393 8993 3381 9038
      3381 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 240DEG 35KT 3399 9034

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E TAYLOR              34.27N  89.53W
12/16/2019                   LAFAYETTE          MS   PUBLIC

            SHED BLOWN OVER NEAR THE HIGHWAY 7 AND HIGHWAY 9 SPLIT.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TORNADO          GUNTOWN                 34.44N  88.66W
12/16/2019                   LEE                MS   911 CALL CENTER

            ONGOING TORNADO SPOTTED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE
            PERSONNEL.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GUNTOWN                 34.44N  88.66W
12/16/2019                   LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE ON NORTH SIDE OF GUNTOWN,
            INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT DAMGAGE TO A CHURCH OFF OF HIGHWAY
            45 AND ROAD 911 AND AN 18 WHEELER BLOWN OFF THE ROAD ON
            HIGHWAY 45.

&&

MJ

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