Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Memphis, TN

062 
WGUS74 KMEG 161820
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1220 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

TNC005-162030-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-191216T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Benton TN-
1220 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CST FOR
CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY...

At 1218 PM CST, trained weather spotters reported numerous roads 
were flooded in the Camden area. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches 
have fallen since last night with additional rainfall anticipated 
this afternoon.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Camden and Nathan Bedford Forrest State Park. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8792 3603 8800 3600 8800 3598 8802
      3593 8821 3609 8821 3622 8795 3621 8794
      3618 8793 3616 8792

$$

MJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
944 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.UPDATE...

At mid morning, the surface front extended from south of Clarksdale
to around Pickwick. Southerly flow up and over the surface boundary
is helping sustain showers/storms north of the boundary. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible with stronger/training storms.  Fairly
low freezing level and especially -20 deg C level, so small hail can
also be expected.

Early 12Z guidance continues the general forecast trend for the
afternoon and evening. Surface-based instability still appears most
likely during the afternoon/early evening over NE MS. Weak upper
system and surface low along the boundary should provide lift and
focus for storms. Vertical wind shear will support storm
organization and at least mid-level rotation. Farther north, lift
and instability over the surface front will remain favorable for
elevated storms.

GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...A quasi-stationary front is draped across the Mid-
South, just south of I-40. Weak low pressure moving along the
front overnight, along with strong low level flow across that
boundary, has resulted in a band of heavy rainfall of up to 1.5
inches just north of I-40. As the weak low tracks into middle TN,
along with the stronger low level flow, the band has been slowly
weakening. There is quite a contrast across the front with temps
in the mid 30s over extreme NE AR and the MO Bootheel to the mid
60s over Monroe County MS.

Today...An upper level trough will push toward the region with
deep, moist southwesterly flow across the Mid-South. Surface low
pressure developing near the ARKLATEX will begin to move NE along
the stalled frontal boundary across the Mid-South. In the warm
sector southerly winds will continue to pull moist and relatively
unstable air north. Expect showers and elevated thunderstorms to
expand this morning as the surface low approaches and low level
flow strengthens across the stalled front once again. Could see
some locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding,
especially where heavy rain fell overnight.

Further southwest, as the cold front starts pushing across the
Lower MS Valley, expect more thunderstorms to develop and
intensify while spreading NE to parts of the Mid-South during the
afternoon. In the warm sector, south of the stalled front, severe
parameters point toward a few severe storms, though the better
threat remains south of the region. Strong deep layer shear will
be in place with at least some instability. SBCAPE values will
climb to between 500-1000 J/KG and 0-1km helicity values will top
200 m2/s2 this afternoon across NE MS indicating favorable low
level veering. Best areas of updraft helicity remain south though
some HREF members have robust values across parts of NE MS. Expect
clusters and lines of convection to push NE along and just ahead
of the approaching cold front. Any storms that can remain semi-
discrete pose the greater threat. The main threat will be damaging
wind. A tornado is possible across NE MS and with some hail in
stronger storms. Severe chances start ramping up early this
afternoon and continue until the front exits around 01-02z.

Tonight...Severe weather chance diminish in the early evening and
rain chances taper off quickly from west to east. Precip will end
before any kind of changeover can occur. Gusty NW winds will
bring in much colder air by morning with lows from about 30 in NE
AR to upper 30s in NE MS.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Cold with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s. Gusty NW winds will add an extra chill on
Tuesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Slightly milder by Thursday as high
pressure shifts east. A fast moving system may bring a little rain
to the region Friday into early Saturday. Upper level high
pressure build in for Sunday into early next week with temps
climbing above normal.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFs

A quasi-stationary front currently sits just south of I-40 with rain
and a few elevated thunderstorms occurring along and north of
I-40. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to continue at all sites for the
majority of this TAF period. Have kept the mention of LLWS at
MEM/MKL/TUP due to the placement/movement of the frontal boundary
and influence of the strengthening low-level jet.

Rain will continue through the afternoon with the best chances for
TS being 18z-00z. Winds will be northerly 8-10kts at the northern
sites. Rain and TS will diminish quickly from west to east as a
cold front passes through the Mid-South. At this point winds at
TUP will shift northward. Strong NW winds will remain elevated
11-14kts with gusts 22-24kts possible through the end of the
period. By this time, cigs are expected to lift to high-end IFR to
MVFR.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
314 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this
evening along and south of a line from Helena-West Helena,
Arkansas to Decaturville, Tennessee. The greatest risk for severe
weather will be across north-central and northeast Mississippi.
Damaging winds will be the main threat. A tornado is possible
along with large hail.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash
flooding, mainly across West Tennessee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early this
evening.

SJM