Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
744 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

Convection is having a hard time developing across the Midsouth
despite very unstable conditions the cap is proving to be equally
or more powerful. The ridge should continue to break down this
afternoon and a cold front will approach from the North providing
a better focus for lift. Expect storms to become more numerous
over the next couple of hours and likely peak in both coverage and
intensity around sunset. Rainfall totals will likely remain below
one half of an inch. There is the possibility that any storms
that do develop could produce locally damaging wind.

Temperatures soared into the middle to upper 90s area wide with
dew points in the upper 70s to low 80s resulting in one of the
hottest days we have seen in quite a while. Heat indices topped
out in the 112 to 118 range.

We should cool down by 5-10 degrees tomorrow, and dew points will
be in the in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat indices should remain
in the middle 90s.

A few showers may linger in portions of North Mississippi early
tomorrow, but most of the Midsouth will be dry.

Thursday through Saturday expect dry conditions as Northwest flow
strengthens over the Midsouth. The storm track will likely be to
our North until possibly Sunday when guidance brings a fairly
strong shortwave out of the Central Plains across Missouri.
Guidance is now in better agreement with this scenario, but I'm
not confident enough yet to ramp pops up beyond low chance yet.
Temperatures should trend slightly cooler Sunday into early next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front is moving south into the area. Scattered TSRAs have
developed along the front and are pushing south this evening.
Looks like activity will mainly miss KJBR/KMKL with KMEM and KTUP
more likely to see TSRAs on station with gusty winds. TSRAs will
push south this evening leaving behind mainly VFR conds aside from
perhaps some light fog. VFR on Wednesday with north winds around
10 kts.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Crittenden-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-
     Benton MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-
     Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-
     Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-
     Yalobusha.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chester-
     Crockett-Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-
     Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
326 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-142230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
326 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire Mid-
South through 8 PM CDT this evening for heat index values of 110
to 116 degrees.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across most of
West Tennessee, and a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
across the remainder of the Mid-South, mainly late this afternoon
into this evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat for
any thunderstorms that reach severe limits. Localized heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into this
evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
602 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

ARZ027-035-132345-
Poinsett AR-Cross AR-
602 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Poinsett County in eastern Arkansas...
Cross County in eastern Arkansas...

At 602 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing ${allThreat}near
Hickory Ridge, or 10 miles northwest of Wynne, moving southeast at 20
mph.

People in southwestern Poinsett and Cross Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3552 9104 3550 9082 3523 9059 3515 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 304DEG 18KT 3532 9095

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

ARZ035-036-048-049-TNZ088-140030-
St. Francis AR-Lee AR-Cross AR-Crittenden AR-Shelby TN-
640 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Lee County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...
Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 640 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Earle, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern St. Francis...northeastern Lee...southeastern
Cross...Crittenden and southwestern Shelby Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3537 9023 3510 8995 3499 9021 3499 9030
      3496 9028 3483 9060 3521 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 318DEG 24KT 3528 9044