Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
258 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A large
area of rain covers the region at this time with a few strong to
severe thunderstorms moving across northeast Mississippi. All of
this rain is associated with an MCS which covers much of the
region.

The MCS will move slowly east today bringing more showers and
thunderstorms to the region this morning. As the MCS weakens and
moves east, the coverage of rain should greatly diminish this
afternoon. With all the clouds and rain around this morning,
temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the mid 80s. By
tonight, a cold front will have moved into the Mid-South then
stall out close to the Tennessee/Mississippi border. a few
thunderstorm may form ahead of the front across southern sections
of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little below normal
tonight with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Tuesday, the stalled out front will eventually push south and
out of the region. A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible
on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. With the cold front out of the
region, the threat of thunderstorms will diminish over northern
sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures Tuesday night will be
similar to tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Wednesday will see a return of more summer like weather with
scattered thunderstorms developing mainly in the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Thursday and Friday will be similar to Wednesday with
more afternoon thunderstorms expected to develop.

The weekend loos to have similar weather with more scattered
thunderstorms expected to form mainly during the afternoon
hours. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal
for the weekend.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

SHRA and isolated TS will continue through early morning across
the area. Mainly VFR conds overnight, with intermittent periods
of MVFR due to -SHRA. There is some concern about MVFR CIGs
moving into all sites by early morning, but confidence remains
low. Conds should improve back to VFR by the afternoon hours.

Southwest winds throughout the period with gusts tomorrow
afternoon.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-251030-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
330 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
215 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MSZ015>017-023-024-240800-
Itawamba MS-Pontotoc MS-Monroe MS-Lee MS-Chickasaw MS-
215 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR...

West central Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 215 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Trace State Park,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in west central Itawamba...eastern Pontotoc...northwestern
Monroe...Lee and Chickasaw Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3374 8918 3381 8915 3381 8914 3384 8914
      3436 8891 3437 8845 3374 8870 3374 8872
      3381 8872 3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903
      3374 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 221DEG 36KT 3428 8893

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MSZ002-013>015-021-240830-
Lafayette MS-Pontotoc MS-Marshall MS-Union MS-Yalobusha MS-
252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR...

Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 252 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Oxford, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Lafayette...northwestern Pontotoc...southeastern
Marshall...western Union and northeastern Yalobusha Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3460 8957 3460 8930 3458 8930 3458 8925
      3460 8924 3460 8894 3416 8925 3416 8951
      3415 8951 3415 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 232DEG 34KT 3431 8952

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020-240845-
Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-DeSoto MS-Tallahatchie MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-
Quitman MS-
306 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 306 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Jonestown, or 13 miles northeast of Clarksdale,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tunica...southeastern Coahoma...southwestern
DeSoto...northern Tallahatchie...Panola...Tate and Quitman Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3407 9055 3476 9037 3477 8973 3416 8989
      3416 8993 3407 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 216DEG 37KT 3434 9041

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MSZ011-020-021-240915-
Tallahatchie MS-Yalobusha MS-Quitman MS-
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR...

Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 327 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Minter City, or 11 miles east of Drew, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Tallahatchie...western Yalobusha and southeastern Quitman
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3373 9031 3375 9029 3376 9026 3376 9019
      3378 9017 3381 9018 3381 9045 3416 9025
      3416 8973 3390 8981 3390 8992 3382 8993
      3382 8998 3381 8998 3381 9014 3373 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 216DEG 49KT 3381 9033

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