Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
928 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.UPDATE...

Evening update. The main convective line of storms has pushed off
to the east in the past hour or so. The focus now shifts to a
newer area of convection to our southwest. Latest GOES Water Vapor
Imagery shows an MCS lifting northeast across the ArkLaMiss
region. New surface-based storms have begun to fire up over
northeast Mississippi. There is a thin sliver of northeast
Mississippi that is still pretty unstable with latest
mesonanalysis data showing 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and no cap.
Combined with the LLJ, a few strong to severe storms will be
possible over the next couple of hours or so. Elsewhere, the
severe threat looks quite limited due to earlier convection.
Expect mainly light to moderate rainfall through the overnight
hours with scattered thunderstorms. About another 0.5 to 1.5
inches of rainfall is possible across the southern half of the
forecast area.

Went ahead and bumped up POPs in the short term. The HWO will be
adjusted to reflect strong and possibly a severe storm over
northeast Mississippi.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

UPDATE...
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite and regional WSR-88D
radar trends indicate a Mesoscale Convective System moving over
portions of Arkansas, Southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel this
afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms with a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the line extend
from the Missouri Bootheel back into East Central Arkansas. As of
3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 90s
where rain free conditions are still occurring, and 70s where
showers and thunderstorms have already occurred this afternoon.
Short term convective trends are the primary concern in this
afternoon's forecast issuance.

The aforementioned line of showers and thunderstorms with a cold
pool will continue to push across portions of the Mid-South into
this evening. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and
0-6 km Bulk Shear values approaching 35 kts will support a
potential for damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat.
Hail is not as much of a concern as wind as freezing levels
remain quite high. Precipitable water values around 2 inches will
also support localized heavy rainfall, especially with training
thunderstorms.

Models indicate the potential for showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the Mid-South this week with another shortwave
trough moving across the area on Tuesday and a warm, moist, and
unstable airmass remaining in place across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Overall shear is expected to remain weak with pulse type
thunderstorms being the most probable convective mode in a high
CAPE, low shear environment. In this scenario, the best shower and
thunderstorm chances would typically occur during the afternoon-
early/mid evening hours. Overall temperatures this week will
remain nearly similar over the next 7 days with highs in the 80s
to approaching 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

A line of storms is currently moving across the Mid-South and
should be out of the area before midnight tonight. Gusty winds
from the outflow of this line have been the main threat with gusts
reaching 30kts. Additional storms are possible overnight but
should move out of the area early morning. Confidence of timing
and extent for this additional rainfall is low. Lower clouds are
expected to persist through Monday evening. Gusts will diminish
by Monday afternoon with dry weather as rainfall moves eastward.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
935 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-250445-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
935 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible through late
evening across northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds will be the
main threat if any thunderstorms reach severe limits.

Localized heavy rainfall is also possible across the rest of the
Mid-South.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening in support of
severe weather operations.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
906 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 ESE HERNANDO          34.80N 89.90W
06/23/2019                   DESOTO             MS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES AT HOLLY SPRINGS
            RD. POLICE DEPARTMENT HAS CLOSED THE ROAD
            DOWN DUE TO SPARKING FROM THE LINE.

&&

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
926 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

MSZ022-023-240300-
Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
926 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR...

Southern Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 925 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail and
winds to 45 mph was located over Slate Springs, or 21 miles
southwest of Houston, moving east at 25 mph.

People in southern Calhoun and southwestern Chickasaw Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3383 8948 3394 8903 3375 8896 3375 8903
      3374 8904 3374 8919 3372 8919 3372 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 253DEG 22KT 3374 8933

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
955 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

MSZ022-023-240330-
Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
955 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 954 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail and
winds to 50 mph was located near Pyland, or near Houston, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

People in southeastern Calhoun and Chickasaw Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3380 8928 3408 8892 3408 8882 3392 8872
      3374 8905 3374 8919 3373 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 231DEG 28KT 3385 8908

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

MSZ023-024-240330-
Monroe MS-Chickasaw MS-
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR...

West central Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 958 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing dime size hail and
winds to 45 mph was located near Montpelier, moving northeast at 30
mph.

People in west central Monroe and southeastern Chickasaw Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3378 8894 3384 8888 3392 8872 3382 8867
      3376 8872 3381 8872 3381 8890 3377 8893
      3375 8893 3375 8895 3376 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 206DEG 24KT 3372 8887

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