Wind Advisory 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

518 
WWUS74 KMAF 201945
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND THE
DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR LEA COUNTY, THE PERMIAN BASIN, MARFA AND STOCKTON
PLATEAUS, AND TERRELL COUNTY...

.A strong storm system will move through the region this 
afternoon and overnight, resulting in windy to very windy 
conditions areawide. Improvement is expected late tonight into 
Tuesday morning as the system exits the area. However, a secondary
system will follow the first, with strong winds continuing in the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Tuesday.

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-211200-
/O.EXT.KMAF.HW.W.0026.190520T2100Z-190522T0400Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Guadalupe Mountains NP, 
and Pine Springs
145 PM MDT Mon May 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT TUESDAY...

* TIMING...Until 10 PM MDT Tuesday.

* WINDS...Tonight...West 35 to 50 mph with gusts to around 70 mph
  decreasing to 25 to 45 mph with gusts to around 60 mph after
  midnight. Tuesday...West 35 to 55 mph with gusts to around 75
  mph. Tuesday evening...Southwest 40 to 50 mph with gusts to  
  around 70 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight. 

* IMPACTS...High winds could make driving difficult for 
  motorists driving high profile vehicles. Aviation interests 
  may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong 
  downward airflow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-277-278-210900-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0026.190520T2100Z-190521T0900Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Artesia, Carlsbad, Carlsbad Caverns NP, 
Van Horn, Fort Davis, and Alpine
245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 /145 PM MDT Mon May 20 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/
TUESDAY...

* TIMING...Until 4 AM CDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday.

* WINDS...West 25 to 45 mph with gusts to around 60 mph.  

* IMPACTS...High winds could make driving difficult for 
  motorists driving high profile vehicles. Aviation interests 
  may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong 
  downward airflows. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-274-276-
210900-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0016.190520T2100Z-190521T0900Z/
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-
Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Terrell-Reeves County Plains-Marfa Plateau-
Including the cities of Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, 
Seminole, Lamesa, Gail, Snyder, Andrews, Stanton, Big Spring, 
Colorado City, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, Midland, Garden City, 
Monahans, Crane, McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, 
Dryden, Sanderson, Pecos, and Marfa
245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 /145 PM MDT Mon May 20 2019/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/
TUESDAY...

* TIMING...Until 4 AM CDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph shifting to the west after  
  midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Secure lawn furniture, garbage cans, or other 
  objects which could be blown about by the wind. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

356 
WWUS74 KMAF 210914
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
414 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...

.A storm system moving through the region will maintain strong 
winds across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains today. 
Conditions are expected to improve late this evening as the system
moves to the northeast.

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-277-278-211015-
/O.EXP.KMAF.HW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190521T0900Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Artesia, Carlsbad, Carlsbad Caverns NP, 
Van Horn, Fort Davis, and Alpine
414 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 /314 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Wind speeds have decreased across the warned area this morning,
thus the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-274-276-
211015-
/O.EXP.KMAF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190521T0900Z/
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-
Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Terrell-Reeves County Plains-Marfa Plateau-
Including the cities of Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, 
Seminole, Lamesa, Gail, Snyder, Andrews, Stanton, Big Spring, 
Colorado City, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, Midland, Garden City, 
Monahans, Crane, McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, 
Dryden, Sanderson, Pecos, and Marfa
414 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 /314 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Wind speeds have decreased across the advisory area this morning,
thus the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire.

$$

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-212200-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190522T0400Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Guadalupe Mountains NP, 
and Pine Springs
314 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...Until 10 PM MDT this evening.

* WINDS...West 30 to 50 mph with gusts to 65 to 70 mph.

* IMPACTS...High winds could make driving difficult for 
  motorists driving high profile vehicles. Aviation interests 
  may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong 
  downward airflow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

* Strong to severe storms possible early this morning, mainly
  across portions of Southeast New Mexico into the northwestern
  Permian Basin. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until
  9AM MDT for Eddy and Lea counties.

* SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. All severe weather hazards are possible,
  including very large to giant hail, strong, long-lived
  tornadoes, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and heavy rain
  leading to flash flooding.

Early this morning, moisture return is well underway with
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s backed into the higher terrain. A
lead impulse in the southwesterly flow aloft around a potent upper
level trough is expected to result in thunderstorm development
across Southeast New Mexico early this morning, coincident with a
southeasterly LLJ and CAPE around 1500 J/kg snaking along the
Pecos River Valley at the surface. Initial discrete cells will be
capable of producing large hail, before transitioning to a more
multicellular/linear mode toward sunrise, with damaging wind also
becoming a concern. The storms will generally move to the northeast
across the northwestern Permian Basin into the South Plains
through the morning, with high-res models indicating a majority
of this activity will be exiting our area (SE New Mexico and the
Permian Basin) by around 9-10AM CDT, if not earlier.

The primary focus remains on this afternoon into tonight, when a
regional severe weather outbreak is anticipated across West Texas
into western Oklahoma. The aforementioned upper trough is still
meandering across the Great Basin early this morning, and is
progged to develop a negative tilt today as it ejects across the
Rockies and into the High Plains by tonight. Southwesterly flow
aloft and falling heights ahead of this system, as well as
multiple shortwaves in the preceding southwesterly flow (evident
on latest water vapor imagery) will yield thunderstorms as early
as mid afternoon, mainly across the Permian Basin where rapid
destabilization will occur as temperatures climb into the upper
80s and lower 90s, yielding CAPE potentially in excess of 3500
J/kg to the east of the sharpening dryline. The greatest severe
weather threat this afternoon looks to be roughly along and east
of a Seminole- Coyanosa-Sanderson line, though it all depends on
exactly where the dryline sets up. High resolution guidance
indicates initial discrete storm development by the 20Z- 21Z (3PM-
4PM CDT) time frame across central and northern portions of the
Permian Basin. Storms that develop will rapidly intensify,
developing robust rotating updrafts due to 0-6km bulk shear of
50-60kt and 0-1km SRH quickly increasing > 150 m2/s2 by late
afternoon, and 0-3km SRH increasing > 250 m2/s2. Very large hail
and tornadoes will be possible with any storm that develops this
afternoon, along with damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent to
continuous lightning. These storms could be long-lived as they
move through a continuously favorable environment to the east-
northeast through the afternoon. In addition to the severe weather
threat today, windy to very windy conditions are anticipated to
the west of the dryline from Eddy county south to the Davis
Mountains, where the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning. Elsewhere, with the exception of the Big Bend Area
and Rio Grande/Presidio Valleys, a Wind Advisory has been issued
for windy conditions expected to develop by mid-afternoon.

After the initial round of discrete storms late afternoon into
possibly early evening, attention is focused on the mid- to late
evening time frame, around 03Z-04Z (10PM-11PM CDT). At this time,
the strongest lift associated with the upper trough will be over
the region, coincident with right entrance region of a potent
upper jet, and the resurgence of a 50-60kt southerly LLJ across
the Permian Basin northward into the South Plains. Storms are
expected to rapidly develop along a Lamesa-Midland-Crane line late
this evening, quickly becoming severe and congealing into a line
as the trough's associated Pacific front interacts with the
sharpened dryline. These storms will race eastward across the
Permian Basin through 06Z-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) before moving into the
Big Country thereafter. These storms will initially be capable of
additional large hail, but the threat will quickly transition to
potentially significant, widespread damaging winds, along with
tornadoes as SRH increases upwards of 300 m2/s2 in the antecedent
environment. For this reason, it cannot be stressed enough that
everyone take any Watches issued today very seriously, and be
prepared to take action QUICKLY if a Warning is issued. It is
especially important to have multiple ways to receive warnings,
especially at night. Windy to very windy conditions will also
continue in the wake of the departing system, with winds becoming
westerly areawide. Will continue the Wind Advisory through 09Z
corresponding with the High Wind Warning for all but the Guadalupe
Mountains, where high winds are expected to continue until 12Z
Tuesday morning.

Tuesday into Wednesday, much quieter weather is expected across
the region, with dry conditions anticipated as flow aloft
becomes quasi-zonal and transitions back to southwesterly in
response to broad troughing across the western CONUS. Temperatures
Tuesday will be much cooler as well, with highs only in the upper
70s and 80s for most, though temperatures quickly moderate
through midweek into the 80s and 90s. Given the expected return to
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next trough that will dig
south into the Desert Southwest by Thursday, as well as renewed
southeasterly return flow at the surface, the next chance for
thunderstorms looks to be late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Thereafter, the presence of the dryline as well as continued
southwesterly flow aloft will yield storm chances each afternoon
into the upcoming weekend, as shortwaves continue to propagate
northeastward over the region. Temperatures in this time frame
look to remain near or just above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry and very windy conditions are expected across SE NM and
most all of the Trans Pecos today and tonight. Despite the weather
conditions (RFTI 5-7) the fuel as seen in ERC data is a limiting
factor. SW winds of 20-30 mph this afternoon will increase from the
west in the evening to 25 to 40 mph, higher in the mtns, and by
midnight RHs will have only climbed back to 20-30 pct. As such we
will issue a Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon into the night
for SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Another windy and dry day is expected
Tue and another Fire Danger Statement may be needed for the same
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  58  78  58 /  50  90   0   0
Carlsbad                       88  53  81  56 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  63  90  63 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  57  84  59 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  47  74  55 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  49  78  53 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                          89  49  81  48 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  56  80  58 /  40  60   0   0
Odessa                         90  55  81  58 /  30  50   0   0
Wink                           94  55  84  55 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Tuesday for
     Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Tuesday
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-
     Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Tuesday
     for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

49/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
344 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-202045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
344 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 /244 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible after midnight tonight, with the
potential for some storms to become strong to severe, especially
across portions of southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian
Basin. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A significant severe weather event is likely Monday and Monday
night, especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Very large to giant hail will be possible, along with tornadoes, some
of which could be significant, and damaging winds. The greatest risk
for significant severe weather Monday into Monday night will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and the western Low Rolling Plains.

High winds are possible Monday afternoon through Monday night from
the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico Plains south to the
Davis Mountains. A High Wind Watch is in effect for these areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely Monday, especially Monday evening into
Monday night.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland