Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...

At 18Z, WV imagery showed the upper trough over central NM, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.  At the
sfc, obs put the dryline from near KROW-KCNM-KINK-KFST-Big Bend
Area.  This feature has begun mixing east over the past couple of
hours as winds have veered to SW-W in response to leeside troughing
on the Front Range.  High winds have so far failed to materialize in
the Guadalupes, but we're reluctant to cancel the current warning
until after peak heating/mixing.

Mesoanalysis indicates that, unlike 24 hrs ago, there is no cap over
the CWA this afternoon, w/sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg east of the
dryline.  Mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will maintain the hail
threat, and w/dcapes of ~1200 J/kg running right alone the dryline,
a wind threat is in the mix, as well. Further east, better 0-3km/0-
1km SR helicities are confined to the far ern zones, as well as lwr
LCL heights. Convection has already begun near KFST, and models hint
at bringing a couple of shortwaves thru the lwr Trans Pecos
overnight.

Zonal flow aloft follows the trough, and will persist thru the
weekend.  The dryline will stay generally along and east of the
Texas/NM border each day, w/a chance of convection along and east of
this feature.  Thu, a cold front will move into the area, courtesy
of a trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border.  This will bring
temps down closer to normal Thu-Sat.  As post-frontal winds veer to
east Thu night/Fri, they'll back moisture up against the wrn mtns,
expanding chances of convection further west.

Temps rebound to above-normal Sunday, and stay that way into the
extended under dirty ridging that transitions to SW flow aloft by
Monday as the next major trough approaches.  A chance of convection
will be possible over the weekend, but long-range models are out of
phase by this time, so we'll keep chances minimal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  89  60  79 /  10  10   0  20
Carlsbad                       54  88  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         65  92  65  86 /  20  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  59  89  59  87 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  81  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  85  51  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          49  83  48  85 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           59  90  60  84 /  10   0   0  20
Odessa                         59  89  59  84 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                           56  90  56  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

24/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-011915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
213 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 /113 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Some storms may become strong
to severe through this evening, especially across the eastern
Permian Basin. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Locally heavy rainfall could also result in localized flash
flooding.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect for the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
this afternoon into early this evening in the Guadalupe Mountains
where a Fire Danger Statement is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible through the remainder of the week,
especially across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed by late this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

TXZ075-302115-
Pecos TX-
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of McCamey, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 293 and 309.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 10236 3081 10243 3102 10220 3100 10219
      3101 10218 3100 10214 3099 10209 3100 10205
      3098 10201 3099 10199 3096 10195 3095 10193
      3093 10192 3093 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 240DEG 49KT 3093 10206

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