Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

Look for VFR conditions to continue through 00Z Sunday. Some
thunderstorms will continue into this evening; however, timing and
location confidence too low to include any thunderstorms in any
of the terminals, except VCTS in the Fort Stockton terminal, until
02Z this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX/

DISCUSSION...

Models this forecast cycle remain very consistent, when compared
to previous runs. The upper flow over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico will continue from the southwest, at least through Sunday
afternoon. Then, another upper trough axis will move out of the
southern Rockies and into the Plains. Meanwhile, some convection
may develop along and near a dryline; thus, this potential,
although a small potential, deserves at least 20 PoPs, for mainly
our eastern counties this evening, as well as Saturday and Sunday
evenings. Otherwise, for this next work week, the forecast is
mainly dry, except for perhaps afternoon convection over the Davis
Mountains a couple of days.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop behind a dryline
this afternoon with minimum relative humidity dropping to 8-15
percent across the Guadalupe Mountains and the southeast New
Mexico Plains. Despite ERC values mainly in the 25 to 50th
percentile, RFTI's will likely range from 3 to 5. Similar
conditions may develop Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       66  99  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  71  98  70  96 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 65  91  63  87 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          66  96  64  92 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          58  91  54  89 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  99  72  96 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         72  99  71  96 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           69 101  68  98 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-222000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
245 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 /145 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from the
Permian Basin southwestward across the Trans Pecos to the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend Area. A few storms may become strong to
severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Dry and breezy conditions will result in near critical fire
weather conditions today through early this evening in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the southeast New Mexico
Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ051-052-220030-
Martin TX-Howard TX-
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HOWARD AND EASTERN MARTIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Vealmoor around 720 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Knott, Fairview,
Courtney, Brown and Stanton Municipal Aiport.

LAT...LON 3209 10165 3209 10198 3252 10187 3252 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 206DEG 40KT 3219 10178

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
736 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ047-048-052-220115-
Scurry TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
736 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY...BORDEN AND
NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 735 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vealmoor, or 13 miles east of Ackerly, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Scurry, Borden and northeastern Howard Counties, including the
following locations... Ira and Arah.

LAT...LON 3257 10095 3252 10111 3253 10117 3250 10118
      3241 10148 3262 10166 3297 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 236DEG 18KT 3257 10150

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
746 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ050-061-220130-
Andrews TX-Ector TX-
746 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ECTOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ANDREWS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goldsmith, or 9 miles northwest of West Odessa, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Goldsmith around 800 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include North Cowden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 10256 3191 10274 3223 10255 3206 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 211DEG 12KT 3193 10261

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
749 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             3 N PLEASANT FARMS      31.63N 102.33W
06/21/2019  E1.25 INCH       CRANE              TX   PUBLIC

&&