Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...

* Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible through this evening,
  accompanied by large to very large hail

* Very hot conditions follow late this week

Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop once again through this
evening across mainly west Texas as an upper level disturbance
moves through the ridge and interacts with a moist and very
unstable airmass east of a dryline. Thunderstorms are beginning to
develop in the Davis Mountains and initiation will likely also
occur later this afternoon and early this evening further east
into the Permian Basin as the cap weakens. In these areas cape
values in excess of 3000 j/kg will combine with bulk wind shear of
30 to 40 knots and very steep lapse rates to produce the threat
of large to very large hail and damaging winds. The precipitation
should be east of the forecast area by 19/06z as the shortwave
departs.

By Wednesday and Thursday zonal flow aloft will push the dryline
into west Central Texas and push the threat of thunderstorms east
of the forecast area. Low level thermal ridging and downslope flow
will allow high temperatures to climb to much above normal values.
Localized Heat Advisory criteria may be met near and along the
Rio Grande River(near Boquillas Canyon) Wednesday and and more
widespread Thursday. Portions of the Permian may also need an
advisory by Thursday as well. Later shifts will need to monitor.

By Friday through next weekend southwesterly flow aloft will
develop once again ahead of a slow moving Pacific upper level
storm system. Default NBM guidance pops seem too low in this
regime and prefer the higher superblend pops for thunderstorms
in the eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71 101  68 105 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68 101  68 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73 104  73 108 /  30  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72 101  72 105 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  93  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  98  64 101 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  94  61  97 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           72 102  69 105 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         71 102  68 105 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           68 103  66 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

70/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
113 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-191815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
113 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 /1213 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon and tonight. There is a marginal to enhanced risk of
severe storms, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds,
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Very hot temperatures may create a health hazard Thursday and
Friday. Take precautions if performing outdoor activities on these
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
352 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

TXZ075-274-277-278-182130-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
352 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS...SOUTH
CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHERN BREWSTER AND EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Balmorhea State Park, or 13 miles north of Fort Davis,
moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea State Park, Buffalo Trail Scout Camp,
Toyahvale and Star Mountain.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 215 and 235.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 10398 3092 10398 3106 10325 3063 10334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 266DEG 13KT 3076 10381

87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

TXZ279-282-182130-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lajitas, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lajitas, Terlingua, Study Butte and Barton Warnock Environmental
Educational Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2917 10361 2916 10365 2917 10366 2919 10371
      2918 10372 2923 10376 2922 10378 2924 10378
      2925 10377 2925 10378 2950 10366 2941 10338
      2915 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 210DEG 29KT 2919 10370

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

TXZ279-280-282-182130-
Chisos Basin TX-Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
409 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chisos Basin, or near Panther Junction, moving east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panther Junction, Chisos Basin and Big Bend National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2924 10336 2940 10338 2949 10318 2923 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 259DEG 6KT 2934 10331

12

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