Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

  *  Severe thunderstorm watch 95 in effect until 1100 pm for the
     eastern Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos.
  *  Locally heavy rainfall possible across the eastern Permian
     Basin overnight.
  *  Lingering thunderstorms Wednesday, clearing from west to east
     during the afternoon.
  *  Warmer going into the weekend.
  *  Rain chances increasing early next week?

A quasi-stationary boundary is apparent on satellite imagery
extending from roughly Garden City east to just south of Midland,
and from there south through McCamey, eventually reaching the Rio
Grande in the eastern reaches of Big Bend National Park. The
boundary is somewhat diffuse on its northeastern reaches as
insolation acts frontolytically. Fairly decent shear and
unidirectional hodographs along and south of the boundary would
favor splitting storms, with each daughter cell having the
potential to produce large hail with wind as a secondary threat.
Despite the presence of a baroclinic boundary, the surface wind
field, a lack of directional wind shear, and expected storm
motions do not appear to favor tornadogenic storms at this time.

Rain chances continue to look favorable across much of west Texas
and southeastern New Mexico tonight, with the best chances of
locally heavy rainfall expected across the eastern Permian Basin.
An upper low will then progress over the CWA Wednesday, and again
numerous to widespread thunderstorms look to be a good bet beneath
the cold core of aforementioned upper low.

After the low progresses off to the east Wednesday evening,
clearing and warmer conditions will ensue. Look for widespread
upper 80s to mid 90s returning this weekend with readings topping
the century mark along the Rio Grande valley. Models diverge a
bit in their solutions early next week, so we've kept with an
ensemble mean approach and have introduced low order PoPs across
mainly the northern Permian Basin Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  64  50  80 /  80  70  20   0
Carlsbad                       51  71  50  84 /  60  50   0   0
Dryden                         61  74  55  85 /  80  70  10   0
Fort Stockton                  54  65  51  81 /  80  80  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  63  52  77 /  70  60   0   0
Hobbs                          48  66  47  81 /  60  50  10   0
Marfa                          46  63  41  79 /  80  80   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  65  51  82 /  80  80  20   0
Odessa                         51  65  51  81 /  80  80  20   0
Wink                           51  67  48  83 /  80  70  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/70

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-241900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
157 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019 /1257 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight across the
entire area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.
Heavy rain in any storms will also create a localized flash flood
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heavy rain Wednesday will continue a localized flash flood threat
mainly south of I-10.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely by late this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

TXZ051-052-062-063-232230-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Glasscock TX-Howard TX-
438 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK...
NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND...SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Stanton, Lomax, Courtney, Stanton Municipal Aiport and
Spraberry.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 148 and 165.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3186 10182 3217 10199 3230 10175 3198 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 240DEG 49KT 3199 10180

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