Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of TSRA through the next 24 hours. Most of the
storms are expected to be along and west of the Pecos River this
evening. Winds will be elevated and gusty out of the southeast
this evening then decrease some tonight then increase again Sunday
afternoon out of the southeast. Low ceilings are expected for HOB
tonight into Sunday morning and may impact other terminals as
well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southeast New
Mexico and portions of West Texas until 10 pm MDT/11 pm CDT. The
weather grids were updated to include severe mention across the
whole watch area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change expected to the unsettled weather pattern this
weekend through the middle of next week. An upper level storm
system along the California Coast will remain nearly stationary
through Monday and then slowly eject toward the forecast area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of this system deep and persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will eject periodic disturbances and
interact with a very moist, unstable and sheared atmosphere east
of a surface trough/dryline along the extreme west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. Thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated
every day in this regime. Through the day Monday, the highest
probability of thunderstorms will be across the southeast New
Mexico Plains south to the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and the
plains immediately adjacent to the mountains. These locations will
be closer to the upper level storm system and passing disturbances.
By late Monday through Wednesday thunderstorms chances will also
increase across the Permian Basin as the system ejects into the
southern rockies.

Relief is finally forecast to be on the way by next Thursday
through Saturday as the upper system ejects east of the area and
replaced by upper level ridging with above normal temperatures
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  87  68  88 /  20  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       65  90  67  87 /  50  30  50  30
Dryden                         72  91  73  91 /  20  10  40  30
Fort Stockton                  69  88  70  88 /  50  20  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  84  66  81 /  50  40  60  30
Hobbs                          64  85  65  81 /  50  30  60  40
Marfa                          60  86  60  84 /  50  30  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  88  69  87 /  30  30  40  40
Odessa                         67  88  69  86 /  30  30  50  40
Wink                           67  90  69  91 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-021945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019 /142 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible over much of
West Texas and southeastern New Mexico Sunday and Monday. The best
chances for severe thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

70

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
758 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
06/01/2019  E1.50 INCH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

            NORTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN

&&

CMR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ277-278-020145-
Davis Mountains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Fort Davis, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Davis, Davis Mountains State Park, Star Mountain and Fort Davis
National Historical Site.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3047 10367 3054 10393 3085 10387 3076 10364
      3063 10352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 189DEG 17KT 3060 10376

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ276-277-020145-
Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marfa, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marfa, Marfa Municipal Airport and Paisano Pass.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3018 10409 3035 10417 3044 10406 3039 10382
      3021 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 250DEG 15KT 3030 10406

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
827 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             LOVINGTON               32.95N 103.35W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       LEA                NM   PUBLIC

            MINOR STREET FLOODING

&&

CMR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
837 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ075-274-020200-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
837 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Balmorhea Lake, or 28 miles northeast of Fort
Davis, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Pecos and
south central Reeves Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 218 and 231.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3075 10355 3087 10372 3101 10352 3088 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 244DEG 12KT 3086 10353

10