Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of TSRA through the next 24 hours. Most of the
storms are expected to be along and west of the Pecos River this
evening. Winds will be elevated and gusty out of the southeast
this evening then decrease some tonight then increase again Sunday
afternoon out of the southeast. Low ceilings are expected for HOB
tonight into Sunday morning and may impact other terminals as
well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southeast New
Mexico and portions of West Texas until 10 pm MDT/11 pm CDT. The
weather grids were updated to include severe mention across the
whole watch area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change expected to the unsettled weather pattern this
weekend through the middle of next week. An upper level storm
system along the California Coast will remain nearly stationary
through Monday and then slowly eject toward the forecast area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of this system deep and persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will eject periodic disturbances and
interact with a very moist, unstable and sheared atmosphere east
of a surface trough/dryline along the extreme west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. Thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated
every day in this regime. Through the day Monday, the highest
probability of thunderstorms will be across the southeast New
Mexico Plains south to the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and the
plains immediately adjacent to the mountains. These locations will
be closer to the upper level storm system and passing disturbances.
By late Monday through Wednesday thunderstorms chances will also
increase across the Permian Basin as the system ejects into the
southern rockies.

Relief is finally forecast to be on the way by next Thursday
through Saturday as the upper system ejects east of the area and
replaced by upper level ridging with above normal temperatures
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  87  68  88 /  20  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       65  90  67  87 /  50  30  50  30
Dryden                         72  91  73  91 /  20  10  40  30
Fort Stockton                  69  88  70  88 /  50  20  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  84  66  81 /  50  40  60  30
Hobbs                          64  85  65  81 /  50  30  60  40
Marfa                          60  86  60  84 /  50  30  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  88  69  87 /  30  30  40  40
Odessa                         67  88  69  86 /  30  30  50  40
Wink                           67  90  69  91 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-021945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019 /142 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible over much of
West Texas and southeastern New Mexico Sunday and Monday. The best
chances for severe thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ028-020045-
Eddy County Plains NM-
619 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
MDT...

At 619 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brantley Lake State Park, or 14 miles northwest of Carlsbad, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Avalon, Brantley Lake State Park, Seven Rivers Airport, Lake Avalon
and Lakewood.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3245 10444 3263 10449 3274 10416 3248 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 256DEG 15KT 3256 10439

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
723 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
06/01/2019  M1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FM 1053

&&

CMR

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