Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.Short Term...Tonight thru Friday...
Shaping up to be an active evening of severe weather and heavy
rainfall across the forecast area. As per yesterday, the closed low
that was over Colorado has moved northeast into the eastern Plains,
while an upper level ridge remained in place across the southeastern
US. The result was a southwesterly flow aloft, with several
shortwaves moving through the flow.

Here across Arkansas, a fairly deep moist layer was in place across
the area with a southerly/southwesterly flow, and a frontal boundary
was advancing southeastward across the southern Plains.

The 12Z LIT sounding showed an unstable airmass in place early in
the day, with no cap in place. As the morning progressed, quite a
bit of scattered, weak convection had freely developed across the
southwestern and western portions of the state. Existing flash flood
watch that is in place looks good. A special 18Z sounding was
conducted, and shows that the layer below 700 mb has moistened up
further, and the atmosphere has continued to destabilize. Surface
based CAPE from the 18Z LIT sounding indicated uncapped values in
excess of 6000 j/kg. Interpreting the skew-T, I would say that mean
mixed layer values were probably more in the range of 4000 j/kg,
still impressive to say the least.

Shear values across the area were relatively weak, which is
fortunate considering how unstable the airmass is. Ongoing
convection across the northwest portions of the state is presently
showing relatively little rotation.

Overall the impressive convective parameters this afternoon coupled
with the low-shear environment point to multicellular convection
with a very heavy rainfall threat, along with the potential for
microbursts and large hail. Tornadoes will be a threat this evening
if convection develops along any old outflow boundaries, and along
the leading edge of storms if/when the event evolves into a QLCS
overnight.

By tomorrow, the cold front will finally move into the state and
usher in drier weather in its wake.

In regards to the ongoing flooding along the Arkansas river, the
flood crest is gradually making its way down the river from western
Arkansas. Any additional rainfall that occurs within the basin
tonight will probably have little, if any, effect on the crest,
unless excessive rainfall over the upstream Oklahoma basins cause
additional strain on the flood storage capacities of reservoirs in
those areas. Most likely, the primary result will be an extension of
the length of flooding.

&&

.Long Term...Friday night thru Wednesday...
Model guidance continues to indicate a return of northwesterly
flow to the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley by
this weekend into early next week. H500 ridging will extend
northward across Texas, with a deep low near New England, and
another low across the Pacific Southwest.

With this pattern in place, as occasional pieces of shortwave energy
pass over the state some rain chances will be seen at times. A cold
front will likely move through late Sunday into Monday, which will
bring increased rain chances to the area.

While widespread heavy rainfall isn't currently anticipated, given
the setup, some MCS activity could pose a localized heavy
rain/thunderstorm threat.

High temperatures through the period will be in the 80s and 90s,
with lows overnight in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  82  61  83 /  90  20  10   0
Camden AR         70  86  62  87 /  40  30   0  10
Harrison AR       60  76  58  81 /  80  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    67  83  61  85 /  90  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  69  85  64  86 /  70  30   0   0
Monticello AR     71  86  65  87 /  10  30  10  10
Mount Ida AR      65  82  59  83 /  90  20   0  10
Mountain Home AR  62  79  59  82 /  90  20   0  10
Newport AR        66  83  62  84 /  90  30  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  85  64  86 /  40  30  10   0
Russellville AR   65  82  60  84 /  90  20   0  10
Searcy AR         67  84  62  85 /  80  30  10   0
Stuttgart AR      71  85  63  85 /  40  30  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Pike-Polk-Pope-Scott-
Searcy-Yell.

&&

Short Term...53 / Long Term...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
438 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
438 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
morning across portions of northern Arkansas. Another round or two
of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening across a good portion of the state. Some
storms could be strong to severe. Damaging winds and large hail
would be the main concerns with any severe storms. An isolated
tornado can not be ruled out as well.

Localized flash flooding will be a concern over the northwestern
half of the state where two to four inches of rainfall will be
possible through tonight. Localized higher amounts will be
possible.

The Arkansas River will continue to rise. Major flooding is
expected through tonight west of Conway. This includes water over
roads, many acres of land, and engulfing some homes and
businesses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Major flooding is expected at most forecast points along the
Arkansas River. This will be an historic event, with record or near
record crests in some cases. Crests will begin to occur at points
upstream of Morrilton by Friday, with areas downstream expected to
crest this weekend through next week. Arkansas River levels will
remain high for several days, perhaps into mid-June.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across
northern and western Arkansas.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

230

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     REHMS CORNER            35.08N  92.80W
05/29/2019  E60 MPH          CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ABOVE 60 MPH NEAR TIMBER LAKE
            RESERVOIR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1900102

CROSS

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